Sunday, August 12, 2001

The Australian Economic Miracle

This week, the OECD -- the think-tank for rich nations -- gave Australia a glowing report.  In particular, it forecast that the Australian economy will rebound over the next year to lead the industrialised world with economic growth of around 4 per cent.

If achieved -- and the OECD forecast is consistent with most received forecasts -- this will be a truly remarkable achievement.  Our major trading partners -- indeed most economies of the world -- are facing very depressing times.  Our main trading partner -- Japan -- is mired in a deep recession.  The US economy -- the main driver of world growth -- has slowed dramatically, as has Europe.  The Asian economies have, with the exception of China, hit a wall.

In short, the OECD has forecast that the Australian economy will decouple itself from the worsening economic conditions confronting our main trading partners and the rest of the world.

How is this possible?  After all, Australia is a small, still predominantly commodity-driven economy, which in the past has caught pneumonia every time the world economy coughed.

Well, there are a number of reasons, but basically it is a result of good management, market-driven reforms and a government not succumbing to false "miracles".

Clearly, the decision to float the dollar and the subsequent low exchange rate has played a major role.  The low exchange rate is keeping viable many commodity products which face low world prices, such as gold, nickel and wool.  It is making now the best of times for producers of beef, coal, lamb and petroleum.  And it is giving a huge competitive boost to the manufacturing and service sectors.

Good, stable management of the domestic economy is another factor.  Both monetary and fiscal policy have been re-jigged over the last decade to produce stable sustainable growth and to avoid the boom and bust cycles that have haunted Australian in the past.  Of course this has been made easier by rapid productivity growth -- and Australia had the second highest rate of productivity growth in the OECD, after Ireland, during the 1990s -- resulting from microeconomic reform.  High productivity growth has allowed the economy to grow at a high, stable rate, relieving the political pressure for expansive policies.

Also there has been the good judgement of successive governments not to succumb to the many false miracles pushed at them.  In the early 1980s, the Swedish model was put forward by the unions as the way of the future, shortly before the Swedish economy went into a tailspin.  During the late 1980s, Japan Inc was said by industry planners to be the model for Australia and the world.  Shortly afterwards the Japanese economy and planning process collapsed due to fundamental flaws.  In the early 1990s, the Asian miracle was said to point the way, until it also collapsed in 1997.  The high-tech route was said to be the way of the future in the late 1990s, but the bursting of the dot com bubble and the collapse of the IT sector has shown this to be a false nirvana.

In summary, the Australian economy appears to be sailing quickly and steadily through a sea of economic gloom.  Although, in the end, the economy may succumb to this offshore gloom, good management and economic reform have given it a fighting chance to outperform all other industrial nations.


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Sunday, August 05, 2001

Powering Into Problems

VICTORIAN electricity prices are heading north.

Our bills essentially comprise two components:  the energy cost and the charges for transporting it over poles and wires.

Energy costs are the larger share for bigger users, while the two are split more evenly for households.

The Office of the Regulator General determines the poles-and-wires costs.

Last December, the ORG reduced these charges some 14 per cent.

For the contestable consumers -- those who are free to negotiate their own prices -- competition ensured this was passed on directly;  however, until next year, households are captive to their current retailers.

The Government, therefore, required lower prices from the distribution businesses to remove excessive revenues they would otherwise retain from poles-and-wires charges to captive customers.

In doing so, the businesses took the opportunity to rebalance their prices so that most households saw little in the way of a reduction.  Superimposed on these developments, energy costs have doubled this year.

This is a response to increased demand.  For the most part, the retailers contract well in advance for their energy, but this doubling is reflected in the prices the retailers are able to negotiate.

As a result of the increased energy prices, three retailers sought 2001 price increases for their captive customers.

Minister for Energy and Resources Candy Broad referred the applications to the ORG umpire.  The ORG rejected all three, but the minister overruled this in one case, for CitiPower -- the only retailer to have substantially reduced prices to households after the poles-and-wires decision.

To have been consistent, the minister should have either frozen all prices for 2001 or allowed cost-based increases.

Importantly though, the minister said next year, competition will be allowed to determine prices.

But she left room to override such outcomes.

Ms Broad has sought further advice from the ORG about how to handle price applications.  A new round of public meetings is in the offing, which will keep the matter in the spotlight.

Next year will provide a test for the Government.

Energy retailers face cost increases.  These will drive up prices, especially to rural users, inciting inevitable (though unfounded) claims of monopolistic price gouging.

Will the minister be able to hold her nerve in the face of these pressures?

If she resists price rises, the retailers could face financial ruin;  and new generation may face disincentives to establish itself.

This is incubating a Victorian version of the Californian electricity catastrophe.

Partly due to regulatory decisions, the distribution businesses are already looking somewhat financially fragile.

Recently, Melbourne-based gas and electricity business TXU was reported to have failed selling a share of itself to institutional investors.

Its asking price of $3.1 billion was a steep discount on the $3.62 billion TXU paid in 1995 and 1999 -- even if the price excluded the company's retail arm.

Governments that seek to suppress prices in accordance with advisers' views and to court political popularity are on the road to disaster.

Instead, they need to ensure they maintain competitive conditions in electricity supply, so prices reflect underlying costs.


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Beef-Eaters Have No Right to Stop Whale Hunt

Orthodox Hindus venerate cows, believing them to possess divine qualities.  They prohibit the consumption of beef and, with the exception of the communist ruled states of Kerala and West Bengal, it is illegal to slaughter cows in India.

But while some religious Hindus think the European cattle industry's recent travails over foot and mouth disease and BSE bolsters the moral arguments against eating cows, the Indian government shows no interest in promoting a world-wide ban on beef.  It understands that any attempt to pressure others to follow Hindu religious precepts would be fiercely resisted by many countries, and rightly denounced as cultural imperialism.

In the past few decades, many Westerners have come to venerate cetaceans, the zoological order which comprises the 80 or so species of whales, dolphins and porpoises.  Cetaceans are increasingly associated with very desirable, even divine qualities -- high intelligence, spirituality, and a benevolent attitude towards humans;  an attitude, so we are told, that we don't deserve, given the way we have cruelly exploited these beautiful creatures.

These Westerners want a permanent world-wide ban on whaling, although a few of them are grudgingly prepared to allow very limited subsistence hunting of whales by certain indigenous peoples.  Reacting to this pressure from the cetacean venerators, the governments of Australia, New Zealand, Great Britain and the United States -- all representing voracious cattle killing and beef eating populations -- now oppose any form of commercial whaling.

They become indignant when they are accused of cultural imperialism by people who wish to continue eating whale meat, like the Japanese.  As these governments and the anti-whaling activists who support them see it, they are fighting for a universal ethical principle, not a recently developed cultural preference.  And they are angry about Japan's success in thwarting a proposal for a South Pacific whale sanctuary at the recently concluded meeting of the International Whaling Commission by using aid to bribe Caribbean members of the IWC.

There is a considerable amount of effrontery in their response to Japan.  The IWC was established in 1946 by fourteen whaling nations to assist the orderly development of the industry by encouraging the proper conservation of whale stocks.  But as whale devotion gathered momentum in the 1970s, the United States and environmentalist NGOs induced a number of non-whaling nations to join the IWC, intending to create a majority in favour of ending the whaling industry, in contravention of the IWC's own charter.

In 1982 this expanded IWC instituted a moratorium on all commercial whaling, to take effect from 1986.  Japan and its pro-whaling allies such as Norway have merely used tactics that are little different from those that the anti-whalers earlier used against them.

Despite various attempts by animal rights and conservation organisations to obfuscate the issue, only a few whale species, such as the blue and the humpback, can be portrayed as endangered.  Most of the other commercially valued species are abundant, and would face no threat of extinction under a properly controlled resumption of the whaling industry.

A good illustration of the kind of humbug that often characterises the anti-whaling forces came from New Zealand's leftist Minister of Conservation, Sandra Lee, at last year's IWC meeting.  Vowing that she would never stop seeking to protect whales, Ms Lee told delegates that in Maori legend the great whales were portrayed as guides and guardians of humans on the oceans, "treasure, to be preserved ... the chiefly peoples of the ocean world".

This is true.  But Ms Lee, who is a Maori herself, seems to have omitted a crucial fact from her impassioned speech.  Their legends did not prevent the Maori from being avid consumers of the meat, oil and other products of cetaceans.  Beached whales were butchered and became the property of the local chief, who would share the carcass with his group.  Smaller cetaceans were actively hunted with harpoons and nets.

Furthermore, the official Maori position, as expressed by Te Ohu Kai Moana, the Treaty of Waitangi Fisheries Commission, is opposed to the New Zealand government's backing of the South Pacific whale sanctuary.  Te Ohu Kai Moana supports the right of "indigenous and coastal peoples" around the world to engage in sustainable commercial whaling, and condemns the New Zealand government for not consulting properly with Maori about the whale sanctuary proposal.

Perhaps I should make it clear that I am fond of cetaceans, as I am of many other animals.  On the few occasions that I have seen whales I have been captivated.  And one of the more memorable sights of my life was standing on the deck of an inter-island vessel in Vanuatu and watching a large pod of dolphins lead us into port.  Two by two, the dolphins on both flanks would suddenly veer away in perfect unison and fall back, until only the lead dolphin remained.

I also think it is in Australia's economic interest to encourage fascination with cetaceans, because of the tourist dollars that flow into places such as Queensland's Hervey Bay from whale watchers, or into Monkey Mia in Western Australia from people who want to have an encounter with wild dolphins.

But despite all the sentimentality, the moral status of cetaceans is no different from that of other mammals.  Most of us countenance the humane killing of various animal species in order to meet our needs.  Until the Australian, New Zealand and other anti-whaling governments start promoting strict vegetarianism as an international goal, they have no right to impose their cultural or religious preferences on the world's whale meat eaters.

Thursday, August 02, 2001

Submission to the Pre-Selection Review by the Australian Communications Authority

Submission

BACKGROUND

In June 2001, the Australian Communications Authority (ACA) issued a discussion paper on the pre-selection arrangements for telephone.

These arrangements allow telephone users to pre-select a single telephone company to provide certain specified services in a single basket.  Pre-selection results in automatic use of the pre-selected company's services.  The fixed basket comprises long distance and international calls, operator assisted calls, fixed line to mobile calls and international ring-back price.  The arrangements are prescribed by regulation.

Users can opt out of pre-selection on a call-by-call basis, using an over-ride code.

The ACA sought the views of members of the public on a number of matters including:

  • The effectiveness of existing arrangements.
  • Whether they should be extended to cover other types of calls.
  • Whether the arrangements should be several different baskets of services (multi-basket) rather than a single basket.
  • Whether smaller telephony service providers should be exempt from the obligations.
  • Other issues relating to over-ride codes and wireless local loop.

The issues surrounding pre-selection are important insofar as they change the range of choices open to consumers.  At the same time, they distort the pattern of services offered by the providers in an industry that is already extremely heavily regulated.

The ACA had investigated some of these matters previously and declined to disturb them in any significant way.  Our submission focuses on the major questions posed by the ACA.


INTRODUCTION

We welcome the opportunity to make a submission on this matter given its long-term implications for the development of the telecommunications market in Australia.

For largely historical and political reasons this is a market that has always been intensively regulated and the tide of regulation, which was receding to some degree, has risen again significantly in recent years.  It is now no longer possible for telecommunications providers to make rational pricing decisions among the welter of rules for access, pricing, quality of service and technical requirements.  Nor can they predict with any certainty the future of important commercial variables that are open to routine change by government at the executive and political levels.

The expressed intention of policy was to reduce that uncertainty by reducing regulation over time and allow the market for telecommunications services to develop through the interaction between suppliers and consumers.  The free operation of markets is the objective standard which is most likely to result in the fullest expression of consumer preferences matched by the most efficient delivery by suppliers at a price that sustains production.  We think that it is against this policy background that proposed additional regulation ought to be judged.

We recognise that markets in Australia are both imperfect and corrupted by existing levels of intervention.  Proposals for additional rules need to take account of this.  Nevertheless, if we abandon the principle that the market should be the basic determinant of the range, quality and price of services, then we have a process driven by competing pressure groups seeking special deals which will be judged on grounds of possibly transitory political advantage.

This would be damaging to the development of a strong, independent and diverse telecommunications sector in Australia.  It leads to continuing uncertainty for current and prospective suppliers and distorts the demand and supply of services in ways that impose hidden costs on the Australian economy.


THE THRESHOLD QUESTION

Having said this, it is not immediately clear why the Government is regulating this matter at all.  Pre-selection exists and there is no suggestion that the Government is considering rolling the regulation back, but perhaps it should.  It is worth thinking through whether this regulatory support is now needed and whether a more open market which allowed the suppliers to meet their customers' needs in a more differentiated way might not be better than the existing Procrustean regime.

We think that the questions ought not just to be do we stand still or go forward, but do we go back to a freer system?  It is unlikely that this would result in the complete abandonment of pre-selection and it might give consumers a more diverse and cheaper set of options.  At present there is a single legislated product.

Perhaps unintentionally, the Issues Paper swings entirely in the other direction.  The onus seems to be on the opponents of regulation to justify why further regulation should not be put in place -- vide question 9 in 5.4.2.  Are we so compromised in our policies that we can only conduct the discussion on the assumption of incremental growth in state intervention and control, recalling that this in an industry that is growing and changing faster than regulation can ever match?

As an aside we would also note that pre-selection appears to be mainly a competition issue rather than a technical matter.  The principal question is not whether the additional options are technically feasible but whether providers are failing to provide services owing to some imperfection in the market.  If there is no imperfection in the market, then mere technical capacity to provide a service ought not to determine its provision.

Nor can we see a case on welfare grounds for extending the regulation of pre-selection.  If there were such a case, the solution would be to provide support directly to those in need of it.


FURTHER REGULATION

The case for further regulation presumably rests on the perceived need to force suppliers to give a wider range of choice to consumers.  Currently, we cannot be sure what choice might otherwise be available because this is determined by regulation and consists in one combination only.

One option would be to allow an enrichment of the pre-selection offering if any supplier wished to do it.  This might not result in an immediate rush of new products but it would open the doors to competition and the testing of market preferences.  Often, new products are a matter of time and the ordering of consumer preferences and supplier investment.  Regulation simply wrenches all of these out of order.

Moreover, economic freedom does not only consist in there being the maximum possibilities for consumers to accept or refuse offers of services.  For our system to work we also need to ensure that, so far as possible, there is the maximum scope for suppliers to offer or decline to offer services.  When government mandates products it distorts investment and production patterns.  But it also takes away an important right to conduct business freely subject to not harming others.

Looking at the question of further regulation in the broad, we see the Government being drawn deeper into judgements of a commercial nature of an increasingly minute and firm-specific type.  We comment on this in more detail below but the general point is that there has to be a very significant market failure, a very strong case to rectify it and an assurance that the intervention will substantially improve matters to increase regulation at this time.

First, we do not see a major market failure.  There may be some consumers who would like more from their telecommunications providers than they are willing or able to provide, but this is not a case in itself.  Many products of which we can dream are not available nor should they necessarily be.  This is a world of finite resources in the short term and the long, and products are provided through the expression of effective preferences.  How much expressed dissatisfaction is there and how broadly based is it?  How much is the usual wish list of professional consumer advocates?

Second, we are not talking about a product on which life depends.  Pre-selection is a "nice to have".  Lack of pre-selection does not deny anyone a telephone service nor prevent them from calling whoever they want using whichever service they prefer.  It is a matter of convenience.  We would not dream of mandating that McDonalds be obliged to serve a package of Burger King products (single basket pre-selection) let alone a mixture of other suppliers' products (multi-basket).  Even allowing for the unique features of the telecommunications delivery system, we think that the proposals being discussed here are beginning to take on the nature of the command economy, trying to satisfy all wants and distorting the production system badly in the process.  So we do not see a strong case to rectify even if we thought there was a market failure.

Third, we think that further intervention will not necessarily improve matters.  Regulation is a very blunt instrument and mandating forms of production (which is what this is) has a very bad record.  The proposals would enlarge consumer choice in some areas but we do not know at what cost (though it will be high) nor do we know what other investment and choice of products will be displaced.  What we can be sure of is that government is not best placed to make these judgements.  Furthermore, regulation as a means of deciding consumer choices is necessarily inflexible both as to the range of products permitted and the time span over which they must be offered.  There is a tendency for the public to believe that a government-mandated service comes cost-free but this is not the case.  It is important that the public is aware that such policy choices impose unavoidable costs on them.

Fourth, the government will inevitably be drawn into decisions that affect the welfare of individual firms.  The lack of commercial qualifications combined with the absence of responsibility for risk is a well-known and little loved feature in other areas of regulation of this and other industries.  Equally, the potential for wasteful lobbying activities and corruption is also there.  This is already an industry subject to extensive and intensive regulatory gaming.

Finally, we are concerned that the more extensive, detailed and complex the regime becomes the harder it will become to undo when it no longer serves any public interest.  One only has to consider the increasingly complex tariff and quota arrangements for textiles clothing and footwear imports built up over the 1970s and 1980s.  The vested interests which were built up over the years were immensely difficult to dismantle as they conferred significant contrived benefits on a very large number of individuals and businesses.


THE SPECIFICS

MULTI-BASKET PRE-SELECTION

Multi-basket pre-selection is, no doubt, technically feasible at some cost and providers should be permitted to offer it if they wish.  We believe that it should not be mandated.  The general reasons are outlined above and relate to the undesirability of further complicating and extending the regulation of this industry.

The Authority raises the difficulty most clearly in its question on segmentation of call types for the creation of multiple baskets.

At one extreme, we might envisage a wide range of call types each in a separate basket with the regulation applied to all carriers and CSPs.  This would be technically difficult and expensive.  It is not clear that the additional benefits to consumers would be greater than the costs.  Nor does this allow for providers to specialise voluntarily, differentiate their products or take advantage of any unique efficiencies they may have.

At the other extreme, there might be only two baskets applied to one or a few major providers.  The gain to consumers, and presumably the cost, is less but the balance is still not clear.  In this case an inequity is created as many providers escape the obligation (even though there will be commercial pressure on new network operators to match the product range of the majors).  This absolves them from costs borne by the majors.  They are likely to configure their production to factor in this regulatory benefit permanently and this creates a regulation-dependent class of suppliers.  Alternatively, they may fear withdrawal of the privilege and move to exploit it in an imprudent way, leading to disruptive and temporary advantage to the consumer.  The risk of this is the greater when important pricing decisions are made by the ACCC.  As we have seen recently, anticipation of favourable ACCC pricing decisions, which may apply retroactively, can encourage the offer of unsustainable end-product prices.

There is also the difficulty of choosing the privileged, exempted group (see also next section).  Confining it to existing network operators runs the risk of entrenching the current production configuration and loading costs onto a few players who just happen to be large in the Australian market.


SMALLER CARRIAGE SERVICE PROVIDERS (CSPS)

The drawbacks of further regulation are also well illustrated by the proposal to exempt "smaller CSPs" from the pre-selection requirements.

There is always unfairness in giving start-up and small firms (often not the same thing) special advantages against those firms which have risked their capital to build a viable business.  This would also be yet another hidden subsidy for which the cost is not apparent to the public and parliamentary supervision and removal is doubly difficult.  There has to be some special reason for doing this and given the rate at which new CSPs have been entering the market in recent years, it is not immediately apparent that such a reason exists.  There does not seem to be a serious market failure here requiring correction nor is it apparent that the proposal would produce major benefits.

If the purpose is to allow smaller firms more opportunity to specialise, then why deny that possibility to larger firms?  A simpler and better course would be to simply remove the regulation as argued above.

Providing the protection against regulation also creates a "step" over which a firm must progress at a certain point in its growth.  This will inevitably be a step requiring significant additional costs.  The firm will then try to defer such costs by arguing for continued special treatment for other reasons.  It may well also adopt distorting stratagems such as splitting its operations or creating multiple enterprises to continue to qualify for exemption.  Such stratagems can be countered but the regulatory cost can be high and enforcement can be slow and litigious.  There would be endless disputes.  In the meantime, the regulator will become deeply involved in detailed commercial matters as it tries to advise on, and enforce, qualifying and non-qualifying behaviour.

How should we specify the qualifying step?

It is obvious that specification will have to be determined by government as the prospect of an industry-agreed definition would be small and too subject to special pleading.  Industry participants vary not only in size but also in their product range and production capacities.  The operation of existing regulations designed to encourage entry and competition, which already strengthens the capability of smaller players, would need to be taken into account.

What should be the threshold size?  Should it be a set of financial criteria?  Or a range of operational characteristics?  Or a level of market power?  Some combination of these would be best but we cannot envisage how these could be specified in a fair and enforceable way.  This ought to send a clear message that the Authority is contemplating the impossible here.


ON-NET CALLS

Virtual private networks present some special features.  Although they simulate private networks, they are owned and operated by the provider.  We would argue that if the customer decides to use the network of the supplier instead of going to the expense and trouble of establishing its own facilities, then it is fair for the supplier to insist on the use of that network for a package of calls including long-distance.  We should not be misled by the fact of the virtual functionality into believing that it disposes of the rights of ownership.  Of course, if the regulation did not exist, the parties would be free to trade off these factors without interference.

We also doubt that there is a lack of competition in this market that justifies further intervention.

A virtual private network is a package agreed between the supplier and the customer corporation.  It is an offer and acceptance of a specified range of services.  If government were to break open the package now, presumably all the existing packages would need to be renegotiated in time to reflect the changed costs which would be involved.  This would be to extend the existing government created pre-selection artificiality to another area of business.

On these grounds alone we think that it would be best to let well alone in virtual private networks.  As an alternative, why not allow CSPs to offer such a deal if they wish to do so?  Over time the viability of the product could then be tested.


MOBILE CALL PRE-SELECTION

There is no theoretical (nor, probably, practical) reason why calls from mobiles should not be pre-selectable (question 21).  There are solid theoretical (and possibly practical) reasons why this should not be mandated.

Those reasons are mainly those of a general kind set out above relating to the inadvisability of any further extension of regulation in this industry.

Again we should establish whether there is a demand for this option.  The rapid and widespread take up and use of mobile phone services in Australia indicates that the service is not seriously deficient.  Is there a significant groundswell of opinion in favour of mobile call pre-selection?  Are consumers willing to pay the extra cost?  It would be a mistake to assess the strength of effective consumer demand on the basis of the demands of advocacy groups.

One option for a mobile customer seeking a better or cheaper service is to change providers.  The imminent introduction of mobile number portability will facilitate this.

On balance we do not see strong evidence of the need to extend regulation to this new area.  This is a highly competitive market segment and new product innovations can be safely left to the multitude of firms in it.


CONCLUSION

We believe that the Authority should consider whether the existing pre-selection regulations ought to be dismantled.  It should be extremely cautious in considering new regulations or tinkering with those that exist.  There is already an excess of uncertainty in the telecommunications market brought about by rapid technological change, swiftly changing consumer preferences, fickle consumers, all overlaid with uncertain and changing regulations covering all the important commercial decisions.

Pre-selection is not a life or death matter.  It is a matter of convenience.  Governments ought not to be regulating for matters of convenience.  It is not a matter of sufficient importance to warrant creating the sort of uncertainty and damage that the requisite complex new regulations would bring about.

If the Government is serious about encouraging innovation in this most important industry, then the best it can do is to provide it with a stable and commercially sound environment.  It is currently doing the opposite.

Sunday, July 29, 2001

Keeping Prices Healthy

Roche, Upjohn, Glaxo Wellcome, Pfizer, Wyeth and Australia's very own CSL, are just some of the pharmaceutical companies operating in Australia.  Most pharmaceuticals are actually paid for by the taxpayer, whose contribution is over $4 billion a year.

According to the Productivity Commission, in Australia and New Zealand we get our pharmaceuticals at bargain basement prices.  On average, prices are 30-40 per cent of those in the US and 60-70 per cent of the UK.

The regulatory authorities in the Commonwealth Health Department and its various committees can feel pleased with themselves over these findings.  This is especially so since the Productivity Commission itself could not find anything different in Australia and New Zealand to cause the lower prices.

Pharmaceuticals bring massive savings to society.  Combating mental illness is one dimension.  In Victorian times, up to 10 per cent of the population was institutionalised for large parts of their lives.  It was not very long ago that something as common as post-natal depression caused thousands of women to be placed in psychiatric hospitals.  Today, the availability of modern pharmaceuticals means only a fraction of the mentally ill require to be housed in mental institutions.  Nowadays, most are actually productive members of the community.

Cost savings from pharmaceuticals are likely to become even more important as the population ages.  The cost of keeping someone in an intensive care nursing home is $100,000 per year.  Drugs which prevent or delay this -- for example, combating Alzheimer's -- aside from their immense personal benefits, bring colossal savings to the community.

It costs an estimated one billion dollars to bring a major new pharmaceutical product to the market.  The costs are greatly amplified by requiring up to a decade to pass through the regulatory mill.  The developer then has only a few years to cash in before patent protection expires.  Even when a new drug is found, it has only a 10 per cent chance of being profitable.

There are two conditions that allow Australia the capacity to negotiate low prices for pharmaceuticals.  The first is that, having been developed, the costs of producing pharmaceuticals are relatively low.  Secondly, it is necessary for pharmaceutical companies to be allowed to charge different prices in different markets.

To maintain this the manufacturer must be able to ensure that products sold in Australia cannot be re-sold into the more lucrative US and UK markets.  Such re-selling would undermine the higher prices in the major markets and force manufacturers to charge the same high price in Australia as they do in the US and UK.

If Professor Fels and his Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (ACCC) had their way there would be no such market differentiation permitted.  The ACCC has campaigned long and hard to prevent producers controlling the re-sale of their goods to other markets.  The campaign has already stopped record companies from selling CDs at higher prices in Australia from those overseas.  The boot is on the other foot with pharmaceuticals.  If the principle is extended to them, it would carry a $4 billion plus price tag to the taxpayer.


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Sunday, July 22, 2001

Review of Exasperating Calculators

Exasperating Calculators
William Coleman and Alf Hagger
Macleay Press, 2001;  336 pages;  $24.20

To call someone an Economic Rationalist is to insult them.  To invite an economist to dinner is an act of treason.  How did this happen?  Exasperating Calculators is the story written by two Tasmanian economists, William Coleman and Alf Hagger, explaining these and other matters.  It is the story of a belligerent campaign among so-called intellectuals -- whom Coleman and Hagger label economic irrationalists -- attacking economics, economists and economic prescriptions.

The title of the book comes from the distinguished Australian historian Keith Hancock, who wrote in 1930, "Australians have always disliked scientific economics and (still more) scientific economists, ... the guardians of Australian orthodoxy [protectionists] have thought it necessary to refute these exasperating calculators".  Two exasperated calculators, Coleman and Hagger set out to destroy the enemy;  they do so admirably.

The principle antagonist is the sociologist Michael Pusey whose attack on economic rationalism was contained in his 1991 book, Economic Rationalism in Canberra:  A Nation Building State Changes its Mind.  Coleman and Hagger re-analyse Pusey's data, which was based on a survey of the attitudes to society of 215 senior officers of the Commonwealth public service.  Pusey concluded that there were too many conservatives in the ranks.  By which he meant too many people with an unsympathetic attitude to his preferred role for the public sector.  That role was as principal builder of the Australian nation.  Moreover, the economists among them were the "worst offenders" in failing to realise the destiny Pusey had marked out for them.  The trouble is, Pusey's figures are so full of holes and so appallingly interpreted, he proves nothing of the sort.  Pusey not only has a poor grasp of his method, he has no proof, for example, that the economists prescriptions to solve the issues of the day are less or more useful than non-economists.  Worse, nowhere in his book does he define economic rationalism.  That really exasperated our two calculators!

From this shaky foundation came a flood of other irrationalists.  Political scientist Robert Manne rushed in with the book, Shutdown:  Economic Rationalism and its Consequences.  Our exasperating calculators cut a swathe through the Manne diatribes.  They conclude, "in his treatment of Economic Rationalism, Manne combines a studied pose of wisdom with an ingenuous candour about his ignorance".  The economist Clive Hamilton of the Australia Institute, weighed in with The Mystic Economist.  He argued that man should be reunited with nature and that he should be guided by feelings rather than intellectual powers.  To which Coleman and Hagger reply, "we believe Hamilton's cultivation of feelings to be the product of weak mindedness".  They also take the big stick to Nugget Coombs, a once distinguished public servant and head of the Reserve Bank, who unfortunately took a turn for the worse once he lost the reins of power.  Coombs discusses the influence of John Stuart Mill on economic thought, describing Mill as an academic and clergyman.  Our calculators remind the reader that Mill was a life-long atheist who never sat in a lecture theatre in his life and spent his professional life working in the East India Company!

These are the juicier moments in a serious demolition job of those who sought to harm the intellectual foundations of economics using inferior tools.  The book is also highly critical of economists for not telling their story, of letting ignorance and fear replace rational analysis.  Unfortunately, the much-delayed response to the campaign of economic irrationalism may have caused a loss in the recruitment of future economists.  In recent years there has been a 13% fall in students enrolled in economics at university, at the same time as an 18% enrolment increase in all degrees.

The story of economics is outlined in the chapter "Educating Rita".  Here we learn that neoclassical economics is not another name for economic rationalism.  Neoclassical economics is positive economics;  it is about how a modern economy actually works, not about how it should work.  Its role is to assist in the evaluation of economic policies, not to determine what policies are desirable.  Modern mainstream economics does not say to governments "withdraw", "cut back", "do not interfere", it says the reverse.  Know your economic responsibilities and pursue them with vigour.  Governments have a market support role, and a market oversight role, and a role to see that overall economic activity is maintained at the right level.

Economic irrationalists do not like the superior ability of economics to explain certain economic phenomena.  That jealousy, coupled with the political desire by groups to use governments to obtain an advantage in the marketplace, is a prescription for irrational policy.  Economists do not pretend to have all of the answers, but at least they keep count of our follies.  Ask one to dinner one night -- they can be fun.


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Misguided Views from Defenders of the Clever Country

How are distinguished dissident scholars treated by the defenders of "Knowledge Nation", the "Clever Country", or whatever other slogan marketing men coin for the ideal of a scientifically literate Australia?

Badly, if the Canberra Times' reaction to the death of Professor Derek Freeman on July 6 offers any guide.  Just seven days later, the paper's editor Jack Waterford wrote that Freeman, one of Canberra's most eminent academics, was "barking mad", and that a previous editor had banned most coverage of the professor's activities "because it was not good form to make fun of the insane".

Waterford's comments immediately raised two significant questions.  Since when has it been "good form" to cause gratuitous distress to the grieving family of an honourable man?  And are any other prominent individuals being subjected to the Canberra Times' self-imposed censorship?

Professor Freeman was an anthropologist who achieved international fame in the early 1980s for showing that Margaret Mead's idyllic portrayal of a sexually permissive adolescence in Samoa was false.  Many people, including anthropologists who had previously dismissed Mead as more of a populariser than a scholar, could never forgive him.

It may seem strange to make such a fuss about research on teenagers in a remote South Pacific country carried out by a woman at the beginning her career.  But the results of that research, published in 1928 as Coming of Age in Samoa, had an influence far beyond the confines of anthropology, popularising a view about human culture that is fundamentally misguided, although still remarkably prevalent.

The book launched Margaret Mead on the path towards her eventual status as an American icon.  Time Magazine once declared her "Mother to the World";  she appeared on a recent United States stamp commemorating the 20th century;  and the committee celebrating this year's centennial of her birth is chaired by former U.S. President Jimmy Carter.

Mead went to Samoa with a task that had been set for her by her teacher, Franz Boas, who wanted to test his conviction that it was culture, and not biology, that was the overwhelming determinant of human behaviour.  She would investigate whether the emotional turbulence and crises that were a common characteristic of adolescence in America were also present in societies with very different patterns of culture.

Mead's research supposedly showed that Samoans went through an adolescence that was "peculiarly free" of stress.  And this was because in Samoa -- unlike what was then the practice in Western countries -- the community did not attempt to curb teenage sexual activity.

This was great news for the then-young discipline of cultural anthropology, struggling to establish the autonomy of its subject matter.  There was no biologically-based human nature, for human beings were almost infinitely plastic, capable of being "relentlessly shaped and moulded" by cultural forces, which of course, were the very phenomena that anthropologists specialised in studying.

But Mead's research was also music to the ears of a much wider group -- progressives who wished to cast off the shackles of a restrictive sexual morality and change many other aspects of social life that were usually believed to express an underlying human nature, such as gender roles, or competitive behaviour.  Mead's book quickly became a best-seller, and its conclusions were adopted as conventional wisdom by large numbers of educated people.

Freeman, who first went to Samoa in 1940, and who, unlike Mead, was fluent in the Samoan language, published two major books analysing Mead's research.  Basing his findings on a wide range of sources, including his own fieldwork, historical documents and Mead's own letters and papers, he demonstrated that Samoan sexual mores and adolescent behaviour were very different to the impression given by Coming of Age in Samoa.

Freeman showed that Mead had been too pre-occupied with secret research she was doing for a museum to carry out a proper study of Samoan adolescents.  As she came to realise that she could not fulfil the task Boas had set her, she turned in desperation to a couple of Samoan female companions, and interrogated them about their sexual activities.

Embarrassed by her insistent questioning about a forbidden topic, the two young women resorted to a customary practice Samoans call "taufa'ase'e", or prankish hoaxing.  Unaware that their fibs might find their way into a book, and have a profound effect on the way Western intellectuals thought about the cultural patterning of behaviour, they had a great time fooling Mead into believing the very opposite of the truth about Samoan adolescent life.

The animosity that Freeman provoked from Mead's legions of supporters was extraordinary -- though perhaps not surprising.  They subjected him to a continuing campaign of vilification that could have destroyed a lesser person.  Amongst their many falsehoods was the claim that Freeman was a coward for waiting until Mead's death in 1978 before going public.  In fact, he had personally told Mead of his disagreement with her work many years previously, and some months before she died he had offered to send her a draft of his first book.

As those who have seen The Heretic -- David Williamson's fine play about the Samoan controversy -- will realise, Freeman could be a difficult man.  But he was also a great scholar, whose contributions to anthropology went well beyond debunking Margaret Mead;  and his intellectual and moral compass was more firmly grounded than was the case with most of his critics.  Derek Freeman was the kind of person that a nation which is really serious about its intellectual life should do everything it can to foster.


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Friday, July 13, 2001

Rejoice, For the Choice is Yours

In recent days, Tony Abbot has drawn down the predictable, intemperate responses for his startling revelation that even poor people exercise choices in their lives which affect their well-being.

Before considering this as a social proposition it is worth looking at the proverbial big picture.

Are we, as a society making an effort to ease poverty?

The figures seem to say yes.  At the beginning of the new millennium we are spending close to one-tenth of our national income through governments on social security and welfare.  This compares with a figure of 5% in the early sixties and 7.5% in the early '80s.  Given that real national income has doubled in the last 20 years, it means that real welfare spending almost tripled in that time.

Then there are tax concessions -- about two thirds of the $19 billion in annual tax expenditures are attributable to social security and welfare -- around 2% of GDP.

The flip side of this is that there is some pretty savage levelling down as well as up.  To pay for these income transfers we have one of the most progressive income tax systems in the world and, in this process, make the rich and the not so rich significantly poorer than they would otherwise be.

Nevertheless, Australians still manage to give to charity out of their net incomes.  There are a myriad of private charitable organisations.  These are supported by public and private donations, the latter worth about $3 billion annually at last count.  About half a million Australians work in the welfare sector, many of them unpaid.

None of this takes into account the additional one-eighth of national income we spend on other social programs -- education, health, housing and community amenities.

In all, this is a solid effort to help the poor directly.  It is nothing to be ashamed of.  Both the Australian public and, I suggest, Mr Abbot, are a long way from taking the Marie Antoinette line of "Let them eat cake" as alleged in Mr Beazley's simplistic sound bite yesterday.  We are working off a high baseline.

Are the numbers of the poor increasing?

Here the debate takes off in all directions.  Commentators of different political persuasions deploy aggregate statistics or upwardly mobile poverty lines or specific instances of hardship or simply what they think ought to happen.

The fact seems to be that neither relative nor absolute poverty has increased in the past two decades and that the poor, along with the rich, are getting better off.  Both have shared in a very long period of economic growth.  And it would be a very serious indictment of all the governments of the past 20 years if the massive and massively increased public spending on welfare had produced no net gain for the poor.

It is worth noting that this gain is despite adverse trends such as throwing many older males on the unemployment scrap heap, a huge increase in single supporting parents, more aged pensioners and a much bigger tertiary student population (who will go on to earn well above-average incomes for the rest of their lives).

Can poverty be eradicated?

Two thousand years ago, a famous welfare activist -- Jesus Christ -- said "The poor are always with us".  He combined this acceptance that the problem was enduring with an exhortation to extend charity to the poor and sick.

In some ways we have not moved on -- the poor are still with us.  In other ways we have -- to be poor in Australia in 2001 bears no relation to the same state in the year AD 1.

If Jesus agrees with Tony Abbot that we can't eliminate poverty, what can we do to reduce it?

If we want to do this we need a much more intelligent discussion than we are having or we will be stuck with the policies that have failed for 2000 years or more.

When welfare activists say that government can do much more for the poor it is fair to ask is that "much more" than the $70 billion we already spend.  If so, then we will need big tax increases to bring it about.  Politicians jumping on the Abbot-bashing bandwagon should come clean on this.

If they mean that we need to have more effective programs they are right.  After all, we have put enormous resources into programs and the poor are still there.  What we do now know with certainty is that simple income transfers don't lift people out of poverty, they may keep them there.  Some solid new proposals would help here, together with performance forecasts showing how many people would be lifted out of poverty.

This brings us back to Mr Abbot and a group of other disparate characters, including Jesus, who think that this is not a one-way street.

One of our most revered institutions, the Salvation Army, was built partly on the belief that poverty and alcohol were inextricably linked and that an individuals could "take the pledge" and assume control of their lives.  John Wesley preached the same message of self-reliance to the poor and it brought a better life for many.  Smoking Quit lines and Gamblers Anonymous know that the start of long term recovery is when the individual decides that he or she has a problem and determines to do something about it.

They need the programs but there has to be a personal commitment too.

More fundamentally, if you take away that personal power of choice, you rob the individual of an important element of their self-respect and hope.  And you rob society of the principle that we all need to contribute as well as take -- the widow's mite.  If you tell people that they are victims without any control over their fate then poverty programs will be self-perpetuating.  In a separate context, the (now politically incorrect) Noel Pearson has seen these dangers of long-term welfare reliance and the role of self-help.

In the end we all have choices.  The way we exercise those choices affects our lives, rich and poor.  We can all help ourselves and others.

Is it really "insensitive" (words of yesterday's SMH editorial) to suggest that individuals might have choices in their own lives?  Or is it patronising to suggest that they don't?


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Thursday, July 12, 2001

Alienation Laws Next in Line for Overhaul

This week the High Court Chief Justice Murray Gleeson made comment on the nature of parliamentary democracy that has particular relevance to the alienation issue and the application of income tax law to Australia's 1.6 million independent contractors.

Justice Gleeson's comments related to the danger posed to democracy of regulation being in the hands of government authorities instead of parliament.  This is the core problem that caused the community backlash over the tax alienation rules.

Anyone who reads the 44 paged Explanatory Memorandum to the alienation legislation and the 324 clauses in the draft tax rulings will be more confused at the end than when they began.  The devil's detail puts the power in the discretionary hands of the ATO.

Take just one example.  To pass the business test a contractor must have clients that are "not associates of each other".  But the definition of "associate" is not clear.  If an IT contractor does work for IBM and also works for another company partially owned by IBM are the companies "associated?"  Do common directors constitute "association?"  The legislation is unclear and the lack of clarity means the answers are subject to interpretation by the ATO.

This is bound to lead to anomalies.  For example the ATO has been known to reject contractor airfares as deductions because the travel allegedly constituted travel to and from work.  Yet if the contractor's client paid the airfare the expense would be tax deductible for the client.

The alienation legislative uncertainty contrasts to the successful approach under PAYG.  The historical concern of the ATO with contractors was that they fell outside the PAYE common law definition of employees thus denying the ATO legislative power to require remittance of tax at the point of earning.  This has been fixed under PAYG where now straightforward legislation defines how "at source" tax remittance is required for direct and labour hire contractors.  There is no confusion and contractors know where they stand.  This high standard of legislative clarity is what is needed for alienation.

And when the swirling confusion of the alienation act is stripped away, 2 simple questions seem to sit at the core.  When does a payment to an "associate" (a spouse) constitute income splitting and when is an alleged business expense actually a personal expense?  These deduction issues are not contractor specific but apply to all income earners.

If a person makes payment to a spouse when the spouse has not worked, or claimed phone expenses when the calls were private, this is fraud and already caught within the tax act.  If the fraud provisions need to be tightened and made specific, do it!  But the approach under alienation has been a convoluted attempt to describe what a business is, rather than detailing what deductions are disallowed.

It's like trying to catch a mouse by putting traps in every square centimetre of the house but none in front of the mouse hole.  The infested house still stands but no human dares go in for fear of being trapped by unintended consequences!  Lack of certainty over what is or is not an acceptable business expense cause people to not engage in business.  Opportunities are lost.

However the problems over this current approach to alienation needs to be kept in perspective.  The ATO and government deserve commendation for success in completing perhaps the largest reconstruction of tax administration attempted in any country and within a staggeringly short time span.  The outcome is a better and more equitable administrative system of tax collection.

The BAS and alienation issues have been comparatively small glitches borne from the ATO having to comprehend a rapidly changing work culture in which people work but are not employed.  This new way of doing business is alien to the direct experiences of ATO personnel and is perhaps the real "alienation" issue that needs addressing.

The business comprehension problem by the ATO is not isolated to Australia.  The UK tax authority's similar approach to targeting contractors found its way into the UK High Court.  In commenting on the UK dispute the judge said that the difference between the tax authority and contractors is, "one of approach rather than one of really indicating a dispute of fact".  The urgent need is to achieve an accurate understanding of the way business structures and relationships are changing.

The decision by the government to drop the ATO assessment requirement for those who failed the "80% rule" is as the HIA said a "stunning victory for common sense".  The next step is to look to simplify and tighten the legislation even further so that taxpayers and the ATO have clear legislative instructions to guide their actions.


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Sunday, July 08, 2001

Think Twice Before Adopting European Labour Relations

Amongst union leaders, Europe is the preferred benchmark for labour laws.  Whether it be a protected role for unions, collective bargaining, minimum wages, holidays, dismissals laws, parental or carer leave, worker consultation or dismissal laws, Europe is seen as setting the pace.

Although we hear quite a bit about the generous working conditions of European workers, we hear little about their wider effects.

A recent study by the Centre for European Policy Studies shows why, and the news is not good, particularly for those Europeans at the margins of the work force.

The study found that while labour productivity -- which in the long run is the main determinant of wage rates -- has grown markedly in the US and Australia over the last decade, it has been stagnant in Europe.  Indeed, over the last five years, labour productivity has actually shrunk across the European Union (EU).  Total factor productivity -- which measures the combined output of land, labour and capital -- has also stagnated in Europe.

What this means is that the Australian and US economies can now grow at about 1.5 percentage points (sixty per cent) per year faster than the EU without igniting inflation and higher interest rates.  It also means that, over the medium term, US and Australia can expect to find jobs for the thousands of people entering the work force each year, while there is little scope for job-creation in Europe.

Over the last five years, there has been an apparent improvement in the employment record in many EU member states.  However, upon closer examination, the record is not as good as first appears.  First, the recent improvement comes from a very low base in the early 1990s, when unemployment averaged around 12 per cent across the EU.  Second, 85 per cent of employment growth over the last five years in Europe has been in part-time or temporary jobs.  Third, there are already signs of employment growth slowing, with unemployment still averaging between 8 to 9 per cent in most countries.  Fourth, the jobs have been highly concentrated amongst men in the prime 24-54 age group.  Indeed, unemployment amongst prime-aged men is virtually zero in Europe.  People on the margins of the workforce, however, including the young, women and older workers, have experienced only marginally better employment prospects, and much worse than those found in Australia.

The reasons for Europe's limited capacity to grow and its poor employment record are its labour regulations.  Europe employment protection laws are some 15 times tougher than those in the US and much tougher than those in Australia.  Thus, firms in Europe are reluctant to hire new workers.  Pay-roll taxes, which are used to fund workers' compensation and unemployment, are imposed at rates exceeding 20 per cent in many of the countries on the continent.  Minimum wages are high.  And unions shops and compulsory collective bargaining are still the norm.

European leaders recognise that their labour laws are holding them back.  Indeed, they recently agreed to a wide-ranging reform agenda.  Progress is, however, proving to be difficult.

In short, Europe's problem are the very same things that local unions seek to adopt downunder and should be avoided.


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Assimilation Offers New Hope

Supporters of Aboriginal rights are worried that the current round of revelations about the culture of violence that afflicts many Aboriginal communities will provide ammunition to the wrong kind of people.

Last week the co-chairman of Reconciliation Australia, Fred Chaney, said "there's this desperate ideological desire at the moment to trash the rights debate and promote assimilation".  And Melbourne academic Robert Manne claimed that allegations against ATSIC leaders will give comfort to "the new assimilationists who are opposed to the idea of Aboriginal self-determination".

Unfortunately, many advocates of the Aboriginal cause see their commitment as an indication of their own moral worth.  This prevents them from accepting that those who find fault with their favoured notions could be acting from decent motives.  Criticism is taken as a sign of wickedness, or blind adherence to ideology.

Perhaps their contemptuous attitude to criticism would be justified if they could show that life was getting better for ordinary Aborigines -- rather than for a small and privileged minority -- as a result of the approaches they have been advocating since the 1970s and 80s.

But for over a decade a number of well-informed observers, both Aboriginal and non-Aboriginal, have been pointing out that things have actually got far worse for many Aborigines.  Indeed, in an interview in The Bulletin this week, Noel Pearson even suggests that while the old mission days in Cape York "weren't bloody Club Med", they bore favourable comparison to today's nightmare of alcohol-induced violence.

So although the phrase was coined as a term of rebuke, I am one person who is quite happy to be called a "new assimilationist" -- as opposed to the old kind, who were far too patronising, coercive and insensitive for my liking.  But despite what Chaney and Manne might think, "new assimilationism" is much more likely to ensure the human rights of Aborigines, as well as genuine self-determination, which must first be focused on the individual, not a collective.

And what is the creed of a "new assimilationist"?

It starts from the principle that Aborigines are Australian citizens, whose future is indissolubly linked to the rest of us, and to whom the same rights and responsibilities must apply.  This does not mean that Aborigines should lose their identity, any more than I, or most of my fellow Jews, have lost our Jewishness because of our devotion to Australia.  Indeed, although I can understand why some individuals in the past denied their Aboriginality, I find it difficult to respect such people, and much prefer those who were always proud of who they were.

"New assimilationism" also acknowledges that Aborigines suffered great injustices in the past, as a result of policies and practices that were sometimes malevolent, sometimes well-intentioned, and sometimes merely indifferent to their needs.

But while some of the harmful consequences no doubt persist into the present, the all-too-common tendency to invoke this history as an alibi for today's destructive behaviour only perpetrates further damage, ensnaring Aborigines in the trap of victimhood.  In Noel Pearson's words, this takes away the last thing that people have, "their own power to change".

And as the anthropologist Peter Sutton has recently pointed out in a far-reaching paper called "The politics of suffering", some of the worst levels of violence and other social problems exist in places where Aborigines were long shielded from the worst impacts of the European presence.  These were places where people were still able to make traditional use of their lands, and "where cultural assimilation forces were the least applied".

Dr Sutton, a respected and experienced anthropologist who is on the council of the Australian Institute of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Studies, and who is friendly with many Aboriginal leaders, would not call himself an "assimilationist".  He thinks that it has justifiably become "a pejorative description", and that "the arrogance of many manifestations of assimilationism in years gone by almost defies belief".

Nevertheless, substantial parts of his paper reinforce the most contentious feature of the "new assimilationism".  This is the insistence that an understanding of the social pathologies that afflict many Aboriginal settlements must also consider the part played by traditional values, attitudes and practices that may still persist, though in variously modified ways.

These potentially harmful elements of the pre-European culture are not just confined to the most obvious, such as the very high levels of inter-personal violence, including violence against women.  They may also include some of the more admired aspects of Aboriginal cultures -- such as the enormous emphasis that is placed on kinship, which can undermine any commitment to "the common good", and beliefs about the supernatural, which induce individuals to seek external explanations for misfortune, thus avoiding responsibility for their own actions.

Many of these cultural elements may have been adaptive under the conditions of a hunter-gatherer economy.  But in their current forms, and under contemporary economic and social conditions, they can greatly impede the very objectives which most Aborigines seem to desire -- physical security, good health, prosperity, the ability to take control over their own lives, a viable future for their children.  Without these, all talk of "self-determination" is a mockery, a recipe for perpetuating the thuggery and corruption that is prevalent in contemporary Aboriginal politics.

However, "new assimilationism" also acknowledges a fundamental truth.  Governments and other sympathetic bodies can provide resources and assistance when requested;  they can reconsider their promotion of a romanticised traditional culture;  and they can be more candid about likely incompatibilities between ancient practices and contemporary aspirations.  But the impetus for effective change can only come from Aborigines themselves.


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Sunday, July 01, 2001

The IT shortage and the Universities

The nation is facing a growing shortage of IT specialists.  While there are numerous causes and solutions, the key lies with the universities.

Over the last decade, the demand for IT professionals has grown at a phenomenal rate -- in excess of 10 per cent per year.  While universities and TAFE colleges have expanded enrolments, they have failed to keep up with demand.  Moreover, Australian IT professionals are being lured offshore in growing numbers by big pay cheques and a low Aussie dollar and there have been restrictions on immigration of IT professionals As a result, there is currently a shortage of people with IT skills.

This has proven to be a boon for the IT profession.  IT graduates command the four highest starting salaries amongst university graduates.  Unemployment is virtually non-existent in the industry.  And average wage rates for experienced IT professionals exceed those of seasoned lawyers.

The expectation s are for demand to continue to out-strip supply with a shortage forecast of between 27,000 to 40,000 IT professionals over the next five years.

Given the big role IT plays in the boosting productivity throughout the economy -- with about one-third of productivity growth in recent years being generated from the use of IT -- a skills shortage of the forecast magnitude will have a deleterious impact on the nation's growth prospects.

One solution is to allow higher immigration of people with IT skills.  The simplest way to do this is to make it easier for the thousands of foreign students studying IT in Australian universities to stay.  The Howard Government has recently moved in this direction by increasing the number of immigration places for IT professionals and allowing overseas IT students to apply for immigrant status.

Another solution lies with increasing places in private training courses -- whether at universities, private college or within firms.  The return on IT training is -- at 30 per cent -- high enough to encourage people to pay and the scarcity of staff should induce employers to contribute.  Though as long as governments continue to pick-up the tab on higher education generally, few people or firms are going to want to do so.

The main solution lies in getting greater through-put out of the universities -- which supply 47 per cent of IT professionals.  To do this at least three changes need to be made.  First, the universities must be allowed to pay competitive wage rates.  Currently, they are forced by DEETYA to apply a uniform band of wages across all disciplines.  These wages might be fine for a sociologist or biologist but they fall far short of the alternatives available to good IT people.

Second, universities must be allowed to be more responsive to student demand.  Universities are currently funded by the Commonwealth according to fixed numbers of places calculated using a fixed and arbitrarily set of relative costs factors.  Since there is excess demand for all courses, the universities are under no pressure to reallocate resources to higher valued areas.  Since the cost factor allotted to IT understates the true cost to the university, there is a strong fiscal incentive not to shift resources to IT courses.

Third, more funds should be allocated to the universities.  However, this is unlikely to solve the IT shortage, unless the funding structure and incentives are changed first.


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Saturday, June 30, 2001

Fit For the West:  The Western Australian Approach to Labour Market Regulation

Backgrounders

Given the importance of export markets -- particularly for the capital-intensive mining industry -- to the Western Australian economy, its labour market regulation needs to suit its export-focused economy.

In part because of its export focus, Western Australia has been a leader in labour market liberalisation.  Western Australia's current regulatory structure, now seven years old, provides a good basis for safeguarding and extending the prosperity of Western Australians.  There is no good reason to re-regulate the Western Australian labour market, although it would be in the public interest to improve considerably its statistical information, so as to allow better public oversight.

Even before liberalisation, WA had led the national trend of falling union coverage of employees.  Unless one believes that workers are being irrational, this falling unionisation -- given that the right to join a union is legislatively protected -- is itself a sign that labour market liberalisation has not adversely affected the situation of workers.

The unions' loss of coverage (since 1976) and of membership (since 1992) is a result of:

  • structural changes which have reduced the value of union membership by increasing the bargaining power of workers;  and
  • the failure by unions, suffering from "capture" by officials, to provide adequate services for members.

The failure of unions to adapt flows, in part, from the consequences of past and present legislative privileges.  It would be a very inappropriate use of regulation to attempt to restore or extend the legislative privileges of unions in order to shield them from the consequences of failing to provide services which workers want to buy at prices they are willing to pay.


INTRODUCTION

Since the election of the Hawke Government in 1983, Australia has been undergoing a profound change in public policy.  The shift in direction has been a response to changes that the previous policy regime -- a policy regime best described as "the Deakin System" (see Appendix) -- proved unable to manage.

The great hold-out in the reform process has been the labour market.  This has occurred for a range of reasons:

  • the link between unions and the ALP provided the union movement with a powerful political voice;
  • "third party" opponents of market reform, such as the Australian Democrats, have been able to restrict or block legislative changes;
  • the interlocking interests of unions and some registered employer associations in maintaining the arbitration system;  and
  • the labour market is where most people derive most or all of their income and people are generally reluctant to embrace increased competition in a market where they are sellers.

There has, however, been some loosening up of aspects of labour market regulation from 1993 onwards, although expansion of unfair dismissal legislation provided major countervailing effects.  The most complete labour market reform took place in Western Australia.


THE WESTERN AUSTRALIAN SYSTEM (1)

In May 1990, 57 per cent of Western Australian employees were covered by a State award, 21 per cent by a Federal award and 21 per cent by no award.  This made Western Australian workers the second most likely, after New South Wales workers, not to be covered by an award, with the lowest rate of use of Federal awards and equal highest (with Queensland) rate of use of State awards.  Even under the previous industrial relations system,

Western Australian workers were the most likely to have arrangements specific to their State.  Western Australian workers are also the workers least likely to be unionised;  this has been a long-term trend.  Western Australia was the first State to show a significant decline in the proportion of employees who were union members.  From 1982 to 1993, the Western Australian unionisation rate was around 90 per cent of the national rate.  By August 1999, that rate was about 80 per cent of the national rate.  As the national rate of private-sector employee union membership is almost 20 per cent, that suggests that only about 16 per cent of private sector employees in WA are union members. (2)  Either way, the union movement in Western Australia has become much less broadly representative of workers.  Such a low rate of unionisation also reduces the significance of any "free-riding" by other workers on union action.

Figure 1:  Unionisation rate (% employees)Source:  ABS Cat. No. 6310.0

The Western Australian system of labour market regulation now operating was established on 1 December 1993 when the Workplace Agreements Act, the Minimum Conditions of Employment Act and the Industrial Relations Amendment Act came into force.  These three Acts created a system quite distinct from that operating in any other Australian State or federally.  They have led to Western Australia being the State with the highest rate of use of workplace agreements.

The system that was set up created two independent streams of labour market arrangements:  the conventional award structure and workplace agreements.  The key Act is the Workplace Agreements Act which allows employers and employees to opt out of the award stream via simple requirements for establishing workplace agreements, requirements which are completely independent of the Western Australian Industrial Relations Commission (WAIRC).  Workplace agreements can be individual or collective, although individual agreements override collective ones.  About 85 per cent of workplace agreements are individual agreements; (3)  for the most part, the remainder are agreements covering a single enterprise.  Unions may be party to an agreement, but have no right of veto.

Workplace agreements are required to include a dispute-resolution clause (which need only relate to the "meaning and effect" of the agreement itself), the presence of names and signatures and an expiry date.

The Minimum Conditions of Employment Act overrides both the Workplace Agreements Act and the Industrial Relations Act in setting minimum standards to which workplace agreements must conform, such as annual leave, sick leave, minimum rates of pay plus a prohibition on terminating employment harshly, unfairly or oppressively.

Private-sector agreements are confidential, unless the parties agree otherwise.  They have a maximum term of five years.  Upon expiration, relevant award provisions are reinstated unless another agreement is registered or the agreement itself specifies some other arrangement.

The operation of a workplace agreement removes the parties from the jurisdiction of the Industrial Relations Act.  No provisions of any awards or agreements made or registered under the Act have any effect during the term of a workplace agreement.  The WAIRC has no jurisdiction over disputes between the parties to workplace agreements, unless the dispute-resolution clause permits it and the parties request to have an Industrial Commissioner to interpret the meaning and effect of the agreement.

The basic structure of the new system having been put into place, second and third "wave" legislative changes followed in 1995 (Industrial Relations Legislation Amendment and Appeal Act) and 1997 (Labour Relations Legislation Amendment Act).  These mainly focused on the role of unions and union officials.  Under these Acts:

  • political donations were regulated;
  • union officials' access to employee time and wage records was restricted;
  • the WAIRC was required to issue return-to-work orders in the event of industrial action;
  • provisions allowing automatic deduction of union dues by employers were removed from awards;
  • unions seeking to transfer to Federal jurisdiction could have their members re-assigned by the WAIRC;
  • restrictions on union officials' right of entry to workplaces were increased;  and
  • compulsory State-controlled ballots were required prior to industrial action -- a provision which has not been used or enforced:  under much tougher provisions in the UK and in the Federal Workplace Relations Act, the holding of a secret ballot is a required step to avoid legal liability for industrial action. (4)

The second and third "wave" changes to the Western Australian system have largely sought to reduce unions to a more ordinary legal status. (5)

One of the most striking changes in the industrial relations system has been the decline in award activity before the WAIRC and the increase in registration of agreements.

Figure 2:  Change in WAIRC ActivitySource:  Fielding (as per Endnote no. 6).

Applications for new awards have effectively ceased, claims for award amendments have fallen almost 60 per cent, while registration of industrial agreements has increased more than thirty-fold.  In October 1999, there were approximately 1,600 registered agreements in force compared with 374 awards. (6)

The operation of the new Western Australian system, with its creation of a competing stream to awards, has clearly been the main driver of these developments.  Tribunal adherence (at both Federal and State levels) to various arrangements to promote efficiency had already, to some degree, discouraged award creation, but not award amendments. (7)  Flight to Federal awards was stymied, initially by an aggressive campaign by the main employer group, the Chamber of Commerce and Industry, and later by provisions in the Federal Workplace Relations Act:

  • Section 111AAA(2), which required the views of employers and employees be taken into consideration;  and
  • Section 152, which gave the capacity for State employment agreements to override any Federal award.

Another dramatic change in recent times has been the surge in individual applications before Tribunals, particularly connected to unfair dismissal claims.  In ten years, applications by individuals have grown from ten per cent of the matters dealt with by the WAIRC to 60 per cent. (8)  This upsurge in individual applications is an interesting manifestation of the increased individualism that legislative changes have both encouraged and manifested.  In a real sense, private advocacy services have become competitors for unions in employee representation.


WORKPLACE AGREEMENTS

The confidentiality provisions for private-sector workplace agreements, together with limitations in the published data, make it difficult to produce clear judgements about trends resulting from the introduction of the new system.  Given the public interest in tracking the system's performance, the available statistical data on the system should be greatly expanded.

Workplace agreements are overwhelmingly individual rather than collective, and one study has found some concentration in industries with weaker employee bargaining power. (9)  Take-up of workplace agreements has been relatively limited -- only about ten per cent of WA employers have used workplace agreements, with the estimated coverage being only about six to seven per cent of employees. (10)

A study of agreements in the WA public sector found that the workplace agreements tended to set the pattern in wage levels by being higher than those in enterprise agreements, that such agreements were generic rather than individually tailored, that management prerogative tended to increase but that the nature and strength of effects were difficult to determine after only seven years of operation. (11)

It is clear that workplace agreements have not radically transformed the Western Australian labour market, however significant they may be in particular workplaces.  This is not surprising, as knowledge and application of awards and other regulations in workplaces have always been much less than is notionally applicable.  This is particularly so in what might be called the "flexi-wage" market:  babysitting, gardening, housecleaning and similar one-to-one arrangements.  This makes examining the effects of regulations and changes in regulations somewhat more complex.  It also means that analysis has to make provision for the considerable inertia in labour market arrangements.  More specifically, it makes comparing outcomes of workplace agreements with the award less revealing than might otherwise be the case:  comparison with the status quo ante is much more informative.  On that basis, workplace agreements seem to do quite well:  a recent survey of employees under agreements found that 52 per cent were better paid than previously, only six per cent were worse paid, with the most common result on other conditions of employment being no change. (12)  This is what one would generally expect from a process of mutual exchange:  it would only be worth one's while if it improved one's situation over the alternative.  It also indicates how smoother operation of workplaces is a prime benefit of a more flexible system (see Box).  As one study notes, workplace agreements are largely seen as ways to improve the operation of workplaces as "a functional response to some perceived restrictions". (14)  Employees gave up things they did not value (restrictions on workplace flexibility) for things they did (higher wages), while employers pay more for practices which improve the productivity of their capital:  so both sides gain.

THE STATE OF WESTERN AUSTRALIA

Western Australia covers one-third of the land area of Australia, is home to a tenth of its population and produces over a quarter of its exports.  Most of these exports are produced outside Perth, although Perth is where about three-quarters of the population resides.  Of the $23 billion in annual exports, over half is made up of five major commodities -- iron ore, wool, wheat, gold bullion, and petroleum and related products.

Of the about 900,000 Western Australians in employment, nine per cent work in primary production, 17 per cent in manufacturing and construction, seven per cent in various network industries (electricity, gas, water, transport and storage, communications) and the remaining 67 per cent work in other service industries.

The share of Western Australian employment in primary production is notably higher than the national figure of six per cent, because of the much greater role which mining plays in the Western Australian economy.  Conversely, manufacturing and construction employ less than the national average of 20 per cent;  otherwise the broad industry profile is almost identical. (13)

The mining industry is central to Western Australia's prosperity.  In this capital-intensive industry, which employs about 30,000 workers and generates $10 billion of exports in three commodities alone (iron ore, gold bullion and petroleum and petroleum products), the issue of wage levels is not nearly as important as flexibility of labour use and the maintenance of smooth flows of production.  This is why miners can earn $80,000-plus per year and why mining companies -- facing the pressures of volatile export markets selling commodities whose real prices are in long-term decline -- are at the forefront of workplace reform.


Awards inherently have what economists call an "agency" problem.  Even during the high point of unionisation, about three-quarters of workplaces had no union members.  Thus the ability of the structure to represent the interests of the people in such workplaces was clearly very limited -- and the industrial commissions typically put considerable barriers in the way of such workplaces attempting to vary from the award. (15)  The award-and-tribunal structure also provides greater capacity for employers to end up trading provisions which union officials value more than employees.

While local agreement may be easier for the parties, they are more complex for unions to manage and make it harder for the union to provide value-adding services.  This complexity is exacerbated by the affront to a collectivist ethic that such agreements can provide:  for example, the Amalgamated Manufacturing Workers Union is apparently hostile even to the idea of representing casual workers (16) -- the collectivist presumption is clear, the lack of a focus on what actual workers want is also clear.

In a recent survey of CEOs, unions were rated a bigger barrier to change than managers or workforces (who were rated about equally as barriers). (17)  This is hardly surprising, as unions have far less at stake in any given enterprise than the managers and workers, and diversity, which is the essence of a flexible labour market, is inherently difficult for unions to manage.

More to the point, complex regulatory arrangements are expensive, both in terms of compliance costs and restrictions on operations.  Stepping around them (such as by moving to agreements, or otherwise changing the mode of engaging labour) frees up resources which can be shared between workers and employers -- hence the ability of mining companies to offer individual contracts which increase the wages of miners.


UNIONISATION

The most notable change in the Western Australian labour market since the 1993 changes has been the acceleration of the collapse in union coverage of the workforce.  Even here, however, the change in Western Australia, though proportionately larger than in any other State since 1993, is part of a continuing and national trend.  Nor was the acceleration in loss of market share by Western Australian unions as marked as it was in South Australia and Tasmania over the period.

Figure 3:  Fall in Union Coverage of Employees (%)Source:  ABS Cat. No. 6310.0

Traditional blue-collar employment -- concentrated in larger, easier-to-organise workplaces with a widespread ethos of collective action -- has declined as a share of employment.  This shift has complicated the situation of unions.  Where blue-collar workers have become small businesspeople, the attitude can even become one of mutual hostility.


MEMBERSHIP

Not only has unions' share of their market dropped dramatically, their actual membership has dropped, with Western Australia showing an equivalent rate of fall to South Australia and Tasmania.

Figure 4:  Fall in Number of Union Members Since 1993 (%)Source:  ABS Cat. No. 6310.0

This is not something which started with the legislative changes of 1993 -- the WA and Victorian reforms and the Federal Industrial Relations Act, the so-called "Brereton Act".  Indeed, numbers of union members actually peaked later in Western Australia than in the rest of the country and, in all States, union membership peaked prior to 1993.

Figure 5:  Fall in Number of Union Members Since Peak (%)Source:  ABS Cat. No. 6310.0

Clearly, the fall in union coverage and membership has causes other than changes in Western Australian, or other, law.  (The issue of the performance and situation of unions, as distinct from the labour market generally, is discussed further below.)


CRITICISMS OF THE WESTERN AUSTRALIAN SYSTEM

Criticism of the Western Australian system appears to focus primarily on the issue of whether choice is really expanded for workers, this being one of the prime justifications for the liberalisation of the Western Australian labour market. (18)  This liberalisation is often rather grandly labelled "deregulation", which is something of an overstatement.  The Western Australian labour market remains subject to a considerable level of regulation -- especially when ancillary matters such as employer liability for employee actions, anti-discrimination law, occupational health and safety law, superannuation and taxation law are taken into account -- and the complex regulatory structures of the award system remain an option.  The Western Australian labour market is patently not as deregulated as the New Zealand labour market was from the passing of the Employment Contracts Act in 1991 to its replacement by the Employment Relations Act in August this year (during which period, New Zealand had one of the best job-creation performances in the OECD). (19)

There are other criticisms:  "deregulation" has, for example, been blamed for increasing the gap between male and female incomes. (20)  This gap, however, actually started to widen before the reforms, and agreement coverage is too low to be a significant factor in Statewide outcomes. (21)  But the question of the reality of choice and the effect on workers' bargaining positions seems to bear the brunt of criticism.

At one level, it is somewhat odd to criticise as displaying a lack of choice a system which creates and permits an alternative to one which explicitly gave no choice -- compulsory awards.  On the other hand, since unequal bargaining power is the fundamental justification for complex regulatory intrusion into the labour market, and expanding choice has been part of the basic rhetoric of justification for the changes, this line of criticism is both congenial to those advocating increased regulation and, if true, a telling blow against liberalisation.

The strongest evidence against the proposition of restricted choice from unequal bargaining power is the decline in union membership itself.  There is no evidence of widespread, systematic coercion against union membership (which is illegal anyway).  Clearly, workers increasingly do not feel union membership is necessary to provide increased choice or to improve their bargaining power.  One would have to postulate a startling degree of irrationality on the part of workers to make the proposition of increased unequal bargaining power stick.  Indeed:

  • the expansion of the welfare state (pensions and benefits effectively set the minimum wage);
  • the expansion of personal grievance avenues;
  • the increase in educational qualifications;  and even
  • the operation of investigative media

have all worked to increase employee bargaining power.  This is so despite entrenched unemployment, which is relatively narrow in its catchment group.  (A key reason why elite opinion has tended to be uninterested in serious solutions is that unemployment is not much of a threat to the tertiary-educated.) (22)  Moreover, there has been a widespread trend of businesses putting more resources into managing employees.  The legislative entrenchment of basic conditions has also reduced the value of union membership.


REGULATION

As the market which generates more income than any other, and which has more people participating as sellers than any other, the labour market is the most important single market in any market economy.  This is as true for Western Australia -- about half of Western Australians are employed, another three per cent are unemployed -- as it is of any other market economy.  As with any market, the question is not whether there shall be rules, but what rules there shall be.  A labour market which operates well creates jobs for those that want them and facilitates the expanding production of goods and services which constitutes rising prosperity.

Should Western Australians expand labour market regulation?  The question is:  how are regulators and third parties advantaged in terms of incentives, information and feedback processes over market participants themselves?  The answer is, they are not:  in fact, they are systematically disadvantaged.  Systematic and extensive intrusion by third parties therefore requires some overarching justification.  In industrial relations, that justification is unequal bargaining power -- in the case of the recent Employment Relations Act in New Zealand, that justification is even explicitly stated in the legislation.  Moreover, the arbitration system's judgments cannot, without proclaiming its own lack of utility, be based on principles that deny it effectiveness or point.  It thus ends up being committed to particular views of the labour market, whether or not these are accurate.  (A similar point could be made about certain conceptions of unionism.)

It helps to understand Western Australia's situation if the underlying logic of recent trends is examined further.


UNEQUAL BARGAINING POWER:  THE NECESSARY MYTH

Employment is an exchange:  if it is not in the interests of both parties, it does not take place.  The question is, how equal are the parties?  The answer is:  it varies -- no-one, for example, who has had to put up with the services of a semi-competent IT person because they or their organisation cannot afford a competent one can doubt that the balance of advantage does not always lie with the buyers of labour.

What does it mean to say that there is unequal bargaining power?  It may seem obvious that, in a situation of generalised mass unemployment, bargaining power would become systematically unequal.  But, in such a case, business focus is also likely to be on bare survival:  hardly a desirable circumstance for employers.

The perfectly competitive market of many buyers and many sellers provides the benchmark of equal bargaining power:  so long as competitive alternatives are open to both parties, outcomes are likely to broadly approximate such a market.  If there are concerns about people not receiving adequate incomes, then the tax-and-transfer system is a much more effective means of dealing with such issues -- particularly given that many people on low wages live in high-income households and increased economic efficiency provides a larger pool of resources for redistribution.  (Over the period of economic reform since 1982-83, the amount spent by government on health, education and welfare has increased, in real terms, by 50 per cent per Australian.)

While bargaining power varies, it is quite another thing to claim that it is so systematically one-sided that extensive regulatory intrusion is required.  There is no evidence for such unequal bargaining power as a general principle:  on the contrary, there is much evidence against it.  For example, large corporations and industries with concentrated ownership structures tend to pay above-average returns to labour: (23)  yet if any group had such putative "unequal bargaining power" it would be such firms.  The highly deregulated Hong Kong labour market has been marked by high rates of employment and high rates of income growth:  if systematically unequal bargaining was a genuine problem, surely in such a labour market wages would be driven down to starvation levels?  Patently, it is not so. (24)  Nor are Australian labour market outcomes different from those of other developed nations in ways which suggest significant benefits from the arbitration system.

Apart from the difficulties that unions face in servicing small workplaces, one reason why such workplaces are generally not unionised is that employees often have considerable bargaining power in businesses typically operating on tight margins and reliant on their willing co-operation.  Moreover, as "human capital" is increasingly the basis of prosperity, employers generally have a vested interest in making its possessors as happy, and therefore as productive, as possible.

Unequal bargaining power is typically taken as an axiom beyond the need for evidence or justification:  there is little or no attempt to ask the questions:  what would the world be like if it were true, and is that the case?  The reality is that, with competitive factor and product markets, employees and employers do not compete with each other, they compete with other employees and other employers;  something ordinary workers are well aware of, regularly using "exit" as their response to jobs not up to scratch.  (A recent international study rated Australian workers "the most disloyal" in the world (25) -- they also exit from unions that do not provide value.)  Indeed, the most important single power of unions is the ability to stop other workers competing for jobs:  it is "scabs" who threaten their power, not bosses.  Union concern to stop competition does much to explain the union interest in increasing, and ideally abolishing, youth wage rates, thereby making it harder for new labour market entrants lacking experience and a track-record to compete against union members for jobs.  Unequal bargaining power is simply the required justification for permitting actions which, in any other market, would be in restraint of trade and illegal under the Trades Practices Act.  (And any attempted collusion among employers should be dealt with directly by such mechanisms.)

The current Western Australian system provides an answer for variations in bargaining power:  the award system is there if people wish to use it.  If individual agreements do not work for workers, this then provides a recruitment opportunity for unions -- if they are willing to take it on.


REGULATORY COMPLEXITY:  WHO BENEFITS?

Increased regulatory complexity imposes significant costs on a society:  it restricts people from doing things they would otherwise wish to do, it increases the costs in going about one's activities, it can easily deaden innovation, and restrict competition and entry to markets as well as the choices available to buyers and sellers.  Regulatory complexity can have the further invidious effect of allowing the exercise of power without responsibility for final outcomes.  Western Australians need to consider very carefully the costs, for an export-focused economy, of increased regulatory complexity.

There are those who benefit from regulatory complexity.  It is in the interest of those individuals who make their living from it:  notably bureaucrats employed to administer the regulations -- complex regulations can be a great basis for bureaucratic empire-building, as the widening empires of environmental intervention in developed nations demonstrate particularly well -- and the lawyers, other advocates and professionals that businesses and ordinary folk become compelled to employ to deal with the regulations.

The traditional arbitration system provides a plethora of such opportunities:

  • Officials from unions and employer organisations can look to appointment to the IR tribunals as a completion of their career.
  • Employer organisations are given a service -- handling complex IR regulations and advocacy before the tribunals -- which they can then sell to their members.
  • Unions are provided with an easy basis on which to recruit members:  in particular, regulations can be used to discourage other modes of engaging labour that unions find uncongenial or difficult to deal with.
  • Both unions and registered employer organisations are protected, by the "conveniently belong" rule, from competition.
  • Unions are also handed an arena -- appearance before an IR tribunal -- within which they can demonstrate their expertise.  (Arguably, unions are necessary elements of an unnecessary system.)

Such a system has often proved to be very time-consuming.  Nor, as was demonstrated particularly strongly in the recession of the early 1980s, is it easily adaptable to suddenly changing circumstances.  This is ironic, since regulatory complexity is often sold as providing "security" -- that is, having good "risk management" qualities.  That the Asian crisis was the first time in over a century that Australia dealt with a major external economic shock better than comparable countries, and that protectionist Victoria handled the Depression of the 1890s notably worse than free-trade New South Wales -- see Appendix -- both indicate the superior risk-management qualities of flexibility.

It is not enough, however, that certain arrangements be favourable to the interests of particular individuals or groups.  Naked self-interest is not attractive, particularly to those that have to pay for the benefits.  Plausible justifications are therefore required.  Ideal justifications not only claim general benefits, they should also allow one to ignore any victims from the arrangements and obscure how much the cost is and who pays it.  Claims of unequal bargaining power, and claims that wages will fall disastrously if the labour market is deregulated, both generate such benefits for the advocates and beneficiaries of regulation.  And it is true that studies indicate that high rates of union membership are associated with higher wages (good for employed workers);  but they are also associated with lower employment growth and higher unemployment (not good for those seeking work).  These are the normal results of monopoly and cartel arrangements.  Such cartels need to be protected against outsiders (who might compete) and insiders (who might break ranks), which is something the award system does very well.  Compulsory awards fostered union membership because they used state power to make unions effectively the only game allowed.  But, by removing decisions from direct control, they also fostered the creation of complex and costly arrangements in which advocates could play their games and "prove" their usefulness.

To put it another way, intrusively regulating the labour market is about restricting choice, and thereby restricting competition, in order to generate political "rents" that can be redistributed to favoured groups.  It is important to distinguish between what is good for workers in general, what is good for union members and what is good for union officials.


"CAPTURE" OF UNIONS BY OFFICIALS

The claim that deregulation is necessarily bad for unions as institutions is not confirmed by the New Zealand experience, where deregulation seems to have forced unions to become much more focused on being active at the workplace level, becoming stronger at that level, particularly in smaller workplaces, than their Australian counterparts. (26)  But such a strategy, and a focus on service-delivery generally, is not particularly good for union officials.  It is hard work and it requires a certain other-focused humility.  A politically-focused strategy is more naturally congenial for union officials, not least because of its reinforcement of their natural career paths (ALP politician, IR tribunal member, superannuation fund board member) which are politically focused and/or delivered.  Many employer advocates may also find it congenial.

The implicit claim by the critics of economic liberalisation -- that workers are being irrational in eschewing union membership -- is not supported by the evidence.  On the contrary, there are good reasons why unions have decreasingly appealed to workers.

Union officials have increased their collective significance within unions -- from 1968 to 1996, the ratio of full-time officials to union members trebled.  Union membership fees also rose at a faster rate than wages (which would make union fees unusual amongst most services and would indicate definite "market power" by unions in their market place), from 0.25 to 0.33 per cent of average wages in 1971 to 0.39 per cent in 1989. (27)  Career paths within unions are limited, typically consisting of a large number of organisers, a smaller number of industrial or other specialist officers and one national secretary.  The natural career paths direct officials' attention away from service delivery and the health of their union towards post-union jobs, while also leaching unions of experienced people.  This institutional factor may do much to explain the failure of unions to retain the loyalty of members in a context of changes in work, workplaces and social values.  The Kelty Accord strategy encouraged a "top-down" direction of action by union officials at the expense of a focus on, or involvement by, members;  an orientation which the Combet-Burrows strategy of "campaigns" and labour market re-regulation continues in new forms.  That the action plan at the end of the ACTU report unions@work assigns a higher priority to talking to journalists (priority number two) than to responding to members (priority number five) makes sense in terms of such a political focus, but not in terms of a customer-focus on service-delivery to current and future members. (28)

The gap between the proportion of workers indicating a willingness to join a union and the number that actually do so (29) may at least as much represent a union failure to capture an available market as any alleged institutional bias against them -- a point reinforced by a New South Wales poll commissioned by the Labour Council which found that 20 per cent of current union members would choose not to belong to the union if membership was effectively voluntary. (30)  (That WA has long had legislative rules against compulsory unionism may also help explain its lower rate of unionisation.)  Some unions have responded to the challenges -- for example, the Shop, Distributive and Allied Employees Association has been able to increase its membership over the last ten years (31) despite operating in an area with high rates of casual, young and female workers:  all groups the union movement has been comparatively poor at appealing to.

Western Australians, who -- along with Tasmanian and South Australian workers -- have defected with notable speed from the amalgamated "super unions", might well recognise the following comments made about the New Zealand system before the introduction of the Employment Contracts Act:

The reasons being cited for disaffection include a belief that unions have done too little for their membership fees in the past, a feeling of alienation from wider trade union politics, the belief that they will get better bargaining outcomes than those recommended to them by their union officials or a fundamental agreement with the employer that certain changes which the unions have opposed are in fact sensible and fair in the specific company context. (32)

Lack of competition between unions generated by the "conveniently belong" rule leaves exit as the only effective strategy for workers dissatisfied by their service.

If workers find that they have bargaining power without union fees, then that reduces the attractiveness of union membership.  If union membership increases bargaining power, that will add to the attractiveness.  As noted, however, the award and arbitration structure encourages costly complexities that cause workers to employ advocates they would not otherwise need, who can then "prove" what a good job they are doing.  The claim by union boosters that they are primarily responsible for the living standards of Australian workers is nonsense -- rising prosperity is based on increased labour productivity.  Or, to put it another way, the increased scarcity of people compared with the capital (physical, financial, institutional, human, social) supporting them and the efficiency with which both labour and capital are used.  The complex arrangements of employee "benefits" produced by arbitration and regulation simply rearrange the returns to labour -- employers make hiring judgements on the basis of the total cost of labour (including holidays, holiday pay, penalty rates, workers' compensation, allowances, payroll tax, superannuation payments, occupational health and safety costs, etc) regardless of how that is made up.  In a situation of full employment, it is possible for unions to make short-term gains, but the market then adjusts for them -- if the demands are sufficiently unrealistic, the adjustment may take the form of lower employment, worsened conditions and substitution of capital for labour.

Agreement structures and customary practice can be expected to foster somewhat simpler arrangements, as these are easier for both parties to manage and allow mutual division of the extra resources thereby released (a recent survey of CEOs rated the time taken to service the IR system as a major cost). (33)

The costs of regulatory complexity and the capture of unions by officials (as suggested by the rising ratio of officials to members, rising union fees and a political rather than a service focus), exacerbated by an East Coast focus for "super unions", may well -- either individually or in combination -- weigh the advantage against union membership.  And it is conspicuous that mining and construction have both seen large falls in union membership in Western Australia:  between 1989 and 1996, union membership in mining fell from 48 to 20 per cent of employees (the largest fall in the country), and from 43 to 22 per cent in the construction industry. (34)


CONSEQUENCES OF LEGISLATIVE PRIVILEGE

What is the social benefit that makes granting special privileges for unions worth the costs?  Any free-rider problem on benefits gained by unions for their members can be dealt with directly by member-specific arrangements:  unions would thereby also be forced to provide benefits in excess of their costs.  Indeed, that union amalgamations resulted in no efficiencies from reduction in officials is a function of the lack of competitive pressure between unions.  This, and the fact that the fall in union membership since 1990 has resulted in cuts in clerical and administrative staff but a small increase in the number of officials, (35) are both indications of the lack of responsiveness, of a customer-service focus, that a culture of legislative privilege has created.  Extending unions' ability to exclude competitors allows them to impose costs in excess of their benefits. (36)  As has been noted:

The system of union recognition adopted in Australia does have negative consequences for trade unions and their members.  The system can devalue the importance of a wide and committed membership.  Unions can gain recognition and widespread coverage through the processes of the system.  When this is combined with the closed shop and procedural devices such as the check-off system it removes even the financial incentives to recruit and retain membership.  This can create the indirect problem of union complacency. (37)

But, the problem is rather worse than that:

An alternative way to state the issue is ... to point out that the current system places a level of trust in the union delegates that would be preposterous in any other business context:  no contractual obligations, no auditors, no creditors, no fiduciary duties, and no competition for members either in the form of recruitment or in the form of alternative unions being able to attract away one's members. (38)

To which one can add that, on past experience, any legislative privileges granted to unions are real, while legislative sanctions opened up against them rarely are.

If the re-regulation strategy is successful, it will also make unions even more politically-focused, since that will have proved to have been the path to increased membership.  By contrast, a more clearly voluntary union movement is also a more legitimate union movement, and a union movement forced to be more responsive to its members.  That re-regulation can be expected to retard employment growth and increase unemployment -- thus increasing fiscal pressure on governments (see Appendix) -- is also likely to reduce its long-term political attractiveness.


A PATH NOT TO BE TAKEN

Western Australia is the only State to legislate to ensure that people retain choice of superannuation funds.  This is not only sound public policy -- making it easier for people to shift between superannuation funds is the most powerful single barrier against misuse of the capital accumulated in such funds (for example, to aid industrial campaigns) -- but very much in tune with contemporary attitudes.  The shift to individualism is not some ideological delusion, it is a broad social movement founded in rising prosperity, expanding technological possibility and the shift to a services economy, aided by the patent failures of collectivism.  Recent research into contemporary consumers found them to be fickle, unpredictable, anarchic and attention-deficient, Do It Yourself, self-willed and suspicious. (39)  Anyone in business today can recognise that reality;  former Victorian Premier Jeff Kennett can tell you about the political reality of it.  The decline in union membership is another manifestation of it.  It is not an appropriate use of regulation to attempt to find ways to herd self-willed consumers back into unions.  The real point of the labour market re-regulation agenda (starting with the Queensland Industrial Relations Act 1999, recent attempted amendments to the New South Wales Act and the Fair Employment Bill in Victoria) that is now working its way around the States seems, nevertheless, to be just that:  a political attempt to deliver protection to unions which are failing to provide adequate services for their cost.  (The New Zealand Employment Relations Act 2000 is part of the same agenda.)

The operation of the Western Australian labour market system is, more nearly than that in any other State, in tune with the realities of an increasingly knowledge-based economy and expanding individualism.  As Gerald Garvey has written:

The alternative to an imperfect market is not an ideal set of "centralised" arrangements.  Rather, [a centralised system] is an imperfect system administered by people who do not and cannot fully comprehend particular circumstances that individual employers and employees face.  Worse still, they do not, like the individuals involved, foot the bill for any errors they commit.  The "free choice" perspective does not need to maintain that employees are omniscient.  All that is required is that they are better aware of their own interests and situation than the average IRC member ... collective representation can be appointed if parties feel they would gain from their expertise. (40)

New Zealand Business Roundtable Executive Director Roger Kerr said recently in Canberra that "geographically peripheral economies need to have better policy regimes than those that are at the centre of world markets", (41) something that Western Australia, whose capital is the world's most isolated metropolis, needs particularly to keep in mind.  Western Australia should not import another bad idea from the East Coast which, like the Deakin System itself and the union amalgamation strategy, serves East Coast interests more than Western Australian ones.  Labour market re-regulation is just such a bad idea and should not be imported.


APPENDIX:  THE RISE AND FALL OF THE DEAKIN SYSTEM (42)

In the first Commonwealth elections of 1901, Western Australia was one of the half of the newly federating States -- along with Tasmania and South Australia -- that returned a majority of free trade supporters.  The overwhelming success of the protectionists in Victoria, that the free traders failed to gain a majority of the vote in New South Wales, and the success of the anti-Kanak Labor vote in Queensland, meant that the protectionists were the largest force in the first Commonwealth Parliaments (though George Reid's free traders were to prove more able to maintain their electoral support than Barton and Deakin's protectionists, until the two groups eventually merged).  Because of the Deakin Government's welfare agenda, and the natural linkage between protection and arbitration, the minority Labor Party supported the Deakin Government of 1905-08 which completed the formation of the "Deakin system" of Trade Protection, Wage Arbitration, White Australia, State Paternalism (use of state provision) and Imperial Benevolence (reliance on "great and powerful friends").

This public policy system -- based on that operating in protectionist Victoria, even though Victoria had handled the economic depression of the 1890s much worse than free trade New South Wales (43) -- dominated Australian policy until the Whitlam Government of 1972-75 completed the formal abolition of the White Australia policy, cut tariffs by 25 per cent and, by greatly expanding the Australian welfare state, fatally undermined the Deakin structure.

Western Australia had developed a local arbitration system based on the New Zealand model in the late 1890s, but, unlike the Eastern colonies, had done so during a period of economic boom created from the gold rush of the period (44) -- the Western Australian workforce more than quadrupled from 1891 to 1901. (45)  As a State with a small manufacturing sector and a comparatively large export-based mining sector, Western Australia was systematically disadvantaged by the Deakin system, which relied on transferring income from exporters (via regressive trade protection) to manufacturers and thence, via wage arbitration, to manufacturing workers, unions and employer associations.

Except for the period from 1945 to 1973, when full employment was common throughout the developed world, the Deakin system did not prove conducive to full employment -- unemployment frequently being around the five to six per cent level, and much higher during the Depression, when Australia had one of the highest unemployment rates in the world.  Nor did it maximise economic growth -- Australia fell steadily down the ranks of developed countries in income per head, despite, for example, having had a higher income per head than the US throughout the nineteenth century.  Nor did it insulate Australia effectively from economic shocks -- Australia suffered a deeper downturn during the Depression than almost any other developed economy, it performed poorly during and after the economic crisis triggered by the 1973 oil shock and was to suffer worse than comparable countries in the recessions of the early 1980s and early 1990s.  The Deakin system did, however, have a strong set of interlocking interest groups supporting it and it did provide a clear framework for policy.

The combination of asset crash, oil shock and wage surge which hit during the Whitlam Government led to a steady decline in the employment/population ratio from 1974 to 1983.  Unemployment became entrenched and mounted as Australia's policy settings and labour market institutions proved unable to adjust to the stresses.

The continuing expansion of the Australian welfare state, exacerbated by rising unemployment, led directly to a collapse in government saving, and was accompanied by a steady fall in private saving.  This slide in national saving led to increased importing of capital to maintain investment -- and even to fund welfare expenditure -- leading to rising current account deficits, foreign ownership and foreign debt.  The loss of government saving also led to more reliance on debt-funding of government business enterprises (GBEs).

The fiscal pressure resulting from the expanding welfare state (despite rising taxes) has been a major driver, arguably the major driver, of economic reform.  As fiscal pressure mounted, seeking increased revenues from increased economic efficiency became more urgent.  Political tolerance for mendicant industries waned.  The role of industry increasingly became to generate the tax and other revenues to sustain the growing welfare state.  High-cost government business enterprises could no longer be allowed to provide infrastructure or other services inefficiently.  As expenditure and debt liabilities mounted, the reduction of such liabilities through asset sales became far more attractive, particularly after various disasters in government (mis)management, such as Tricontinental and VEDC in Victoria, the State Bank (and other dud ventures) in South Australia, government tourism ventures in Northern Territory, and WA Inc.  The result was the familiar range of microeconomic reform:  corporatisation and privatisation (to increase income from GBEs;  to reduce debt, other liabilities and costs, and to increase efficiency) and deregulation and reductions in trade barriers (to increase economic efficiency).

Economic reform was the pragmatic response of policy makers to pressure unleashed by these changes after various alternatives -- the Fraser Government's strategy of relying on resources booms to avoid hard decisions;  the Cain-Kirner strategy of government as pump-primer;  the aforementioned cases of using GBEs and public-private partnerships as drivers of economic activity -- had failed disastrously.



ENDNOTES

1.  The first part of this section is largely derived from Brendan McCarthy, "Western Australia's Labour Market Reforms", Agenda, Vol. 2, No.1, 1995, pages 105-112.

2.  ABS Cat. No. 6310.0, various.

3.  Commissioner for Workplace Agreements, Annual Report 1998/99, page 22.

4.  Bailey, J., Berger, K., Horstman, R., and Fells, R., The Management of Public Sector Labour Relations in Western Australia -- an Overview, AIRAANZ conference paper, 2000.

5.  Unions should also not be surprised if attachment to one side of politics leads to advantages when that side is in power, and disadvantages when their thereby-designated "enemies" are in power.

6.  Fielding, G.L., The Evolving Role of Institutions -- Institutional Reform:  Gimmickry or a Necessity?, paper delivered to the Industrial Relations Society of Australia, 1999 National Convention, Fremantle, Western Australia, 22 October 1999, pages 5-6.

7.  Ibid., page 6.

8.  Ibid., page 4.

9.  Bailey, J., and Horstman, B., "Life Is Full of Choices":  Industrial Relations "Reform" in Western Australia since 1993, AIRAANZ conference paper, 2000.

10.  Ibid.

11.  Berger, K., Workplace and Enterprise Agreements in the Western Australian Public Sector:  Some Preliminary Findings, AIRAANZ conference paper, 2000.

12.  Mulvey, C., Workplace Agreements, unpublished paper.

13.  ABS, Australia at a Glance, 2000;  Labour Statistics at a Glance, 2000;  Western Australia at a Glance, 1999.

14.  Mulvey, op. cit., 1995-96 Survey of 16 employers, Centre for Labour Market Research.

15.  Ibid.

16.  Information from private discussions.

17.  Managerial leadership in the workplace, World Competitive Practices report for the BCA, September 2000.

18.  See, for example, Bailey, J., and Horstman, B., "Life Is Full of Choices":  Industrial Relations "Reform" in Western Australia since 1993, AIRAANZ conference paper, 2000.

19.  Garibaldi, P., and Mauro, P., Deconstructing Job Creation, IMF Working Paper, August 1999.

20.  Preston, A.C., The Hayekian Paradigm:  Some Distributional Consequences, AIRAANZ conference paper, 2000.

21.  Mulvey, op. cit.

22.  A comment made particularly forcefully by Helen Hughes in her speaking and writing on unemployment.

23.  Garvey, G., in Working Relations:  A Fresh Start for Australian Business, BCA, 1993, page 283.

24.  This, coupled with the fact that registered vacancies are outnumbered by jobseekers, is strong evidence that there is no implicit or explicit "bidders' cartel" of employers (since a real bidders' cartel would have more vacancies than job seekers, as the cartel would "ration" access to work) (Garvey, page 267).  For further discussion of the problems with the theory of general unequal bargaining power, see Business Roundtable of New Zealand, Submission on Employment Relations Act, paragraphs 5.8 to 5.19.

25.  Patrick, Aaron, "Australian workers 'least loyal on earth' ", Australian Financial Review, 20 September 2000, page 3.

26.  Brosnan, P., and Walsh, P., Why Are New Zealand Unions Stronger at the Workplace under the Employment Contracts Act than Australian Unions under the Accord?, AIRAANZ conference paper, 1997.

27.  Bramble, T., and Sparrow, J., Explaining the Growth of Australia's Trade Union Officialdom since the 1960s, AIRAANZ conference paper, 2000.

28.  Campaign activity (number one), wages policy (number three) and dealing with a changing labour market (number four) also come before maintaining relevance with members, which is followed by "international unity". This is not an ordering which grasps unions' essential problem -- ordinary workers don’t think the cost of union membership is worth the benefits received. It is an ordering which makes sense in terms of "official capture’ of unions, however.

29.  Bailey and Horstmann, op. cit.

30.  Mulvey, op. cit.

31.  "Warning of fall in union numbers", The Australian, 31 July 2000.

32.  Boxall and Haynes, quoted in Garvey, op. cit., page 326. The Employment Contracts Act has since been replaced by the Employment Relations Act:  New Zealand Finance Minister Michael Cullen claimed recently that "the Employment Relations Act maintains a labour market which is lightly regulated by the standards of the developed world, and by Australian standards’ (Financial Review, 21 September 2000). The claim is highly debatable:  that the Minister thought it apposite to make it is revealing.

33.  World Competitive Practices, op. cit.

34.  Bailey and Horstmann, op. cit., using unpublished ABS statistics.

35.  Brambles and Sparrow, op. cit.

36.  Garvey, op. cit., page 325.

37.  Bennett, quoted in ibid., page 326.

38.  Ibid., page 326.

39.  Research by Susan Stancombe quoted by Greg Daniel in an address to National Party Federal Convention 2000.

40.  Garvey, op. cit., page 343.

41.  Speech to the Society of Modest Members, 29 June 2000 available at http://www.nzbr.org.nz/documents/speeches/speeches-2000/chequered_path_of_economic_reform_aus.doc.htm.

42.  Wood, R.J., From Workfare State to Transfer State:  Where We Were and Why We've Changed, IPA Backgrounder, August 1998.  Wood, R.J., After Whitlam:  George Reid's revenge and the Fall of the Deakinite Settlement, an address to the 20th H.R. Nicholls Conference, 28 August 1999.

43.  From 1891 to 1901, the Australian workforce grew by 23 per cent, the New South Wales by 24 per cent while the Victorian grew only by eight per cent, with the Victorian male workforce actually declining by one per cent. Vamplew, W., (ed.), Australians:  Historical Statistics, Fairfax, Syme and Weldon Associates, 1987, page 147.

44.  Treuren, G., Establishing Arbitration During Prosperity:  Western Australia’s Different Path to Employment Regulation, 1893–1900, AIRAANZ conference paper, 2000.

45.  Vamplew, op. cit., page 147. Many of the new arrivals came from Depression-devastated Victoria.