In my opinion Queenslanders can find excellent reasons for not voting for One Nation (Hansonite) candidates but they do not include South American style chaos associated with a hung parliament. Queensland has had a minority Government since the Mundingburra by-election. Whether another one will be the best or worst of governments will depend on the usual things such as the quality of the cabinet.
That is not to say that One Nation's MPs would encourage better government. To the extent that Pauline Hanson's opinions reflect those of One Nation, her party believes in much the same whacky economics and xenophobic trade and immigration policies as do the Greens and Democrats. Possibly because she once ran a fish shop, she better accepts budgetary arithmetic than they do.
However, minor parties cannot force their nonsense upon the State unless whichever of Mr. Borbidge's and Mr. Beaty's lot is in Opposition join them in espousing it. It is true that Labor and the Coalition have far from blameless records when in Opposition sucking up to self-serving minorities such as those that hate toll-ways or defend union privileges. It is also true that they have sometimes got stuck with past undertakings on coming to government -- hence the quip "Save us from the promises politicians keep!". Big damage has been done, however, only when, like Keating in 1993, they win an election that they don't expect to win or, like Whitlam in 1972, through inexperience of office they have come to believe their own rhetoric. Neither situation applies to Queensland.
A minority government in Queensland would find itself in much the same position as any government that does not command a majority in an Upper House elsewhere. The consequent check and balance is frustrating for the Government but not always regrettable for the public. What is more, I submit that fear of infection will make the Coalition and certainly Labor more careful about hopping into bed with One Nation than with the Greens and Democrats. When they do so they will insist on the protection of an explanation the public will wear. It may even be truthful.
So much for policy. What about the supply bills and confidence motions that can be used to bring governments down? One Nation candidates won't ever do better than in the coming poll and I don't for a minute believe the its MPs would fall on their swords by forcing another election.
That leaves only the ephemeral stuff -- the political culture and leadership of public opinion -- to worry about. It is not, however, unimportant. It would indeed be unfortunate if Queenslanders were, by recording a lot of votes for One Nation, to send a message that racism was an appreciable determinant of Australian attitudes. It would be doubly unfortunate because Hanson at least among One Nation luminaries is not a racist. She is the creature of a prolonged and disgraceful media beat up without which she would by now be very small fry. Nevertheless, that the ABC and some less attractive ethnic lobbies will wilfully or otherwise misinterpret votes for One Nation as racism, is a reason for not casting them -- albeit an unfair one. I wouldn't know about the added charge that some fairly unpleasant characters have infiltrated One Nation but it is probably true because they get into every party including the majors.
Incidentally, the current test of racial tolerance is to be found in attitudes to increasing substantially the intake of refugees from Indonesia. At small, maybe no cost to ourselves, we could avert much misery.
If the reaction of the media and one half of the hate brigade were all there was to fear from voting One Nation, then voting One Nation might still be a useful way of venting one's frustration with the major parties. There is, however, a more important reason.
It is that Hanson, who is paid enough to inform herself, espouses a mindless form of populism that Australians have largely grown out of. For instance, she calls for controls on foreign investment without acknowledging that by banning some capital flows she increases the attractiveness of others by forcing down the dollar or that since the capital account surplus is just the other side of the current deficit serious domestic discipline is needed to affect meaningful change. She would have the government levy high tariffs on imports without acknowledging that by so doing she raises prices, reduces living standards and taxes exports. Her protectionism no doubt appeals to many Victorians but it would be especially damaging to a State such as Queensland which is more dependent on exports. She advocates industry policy without asking what the cost of displacing the resources might be or where the government might find the wisdom to identify the winners that entrepreneurs miss. In spite of the many studies showing that it does not, she encourages the popular misconception that immigration takes Australian jobs. She is xenophobic.
Her opinion and that of the potential One Nation MPs can count for little directly and would not matter if there were not people such as Simon Crean in the Labor Party and John Moore in the Coalition who will be influenced by the number of votes cast for a xenophobic party. And the Prime Minister and Leader of the Opposition have shown that they are not beyond a little economic xenophobia, pandering to vested interests or political corruption -- in the final analysis the three are hard to distinguish. It would be a grave pity, especially for Queensland, if their tendencies were encouraged.
Finally, guns are an issue. I agree that banning automatic weapons will have no appreciable effect on accidental death or murder, that the money should have been better spent and that the Commonwealth has committed a minor intrusion upon civil liberty. But surely there are more important issues to determine one's vote.
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