In public debate in this country it is agreed that the United States' love affair with guns is stupid and explains why the US is such a crime-prone country. Commentators all furiously agree with each other and we can all sneer at those dumb Americans.
There are a few problems with this simple-minded self-righteousness, however. First, murder in the US is overwhelmingly a problem of black America. Afro-Americans make up only 12 per cent of the adult population, but commit over 50 per cent of the murders. A black American is eight times more likely to be a murderer, and seven times more likely to be murdered, than a white American.
It is not obvious why this pattern has anything much to do with gun availability. It would seem to have far more to do with the social disasters in many US inner cities, particularly as middle-class suburban blacks are much more like mainstream US in their crime rates.
And America is not a high-crime society for other times of crimes. England has higher rates of burglary, robbery and assault than the US -- and the rates in England are rising, those in the US are falling.
Take African-Americans (as perpetrators and victims) out of the figures, and the US is a relatively low crime-rate society.
Furthermore, a May 1998 study by Professor John Lott -- More Guns, Less Crime -- examined crime rates in all 3,054 US counties over an 18-year period. Lott found that in those States that introduced laws permitted the carrying of concealed handguns, murder rates fell on average by 8 per cent, rapes by 5 per cent and aggravated assault by 7 per cent compared to states without such laws.
Criminals are opportunists, something we are all aware of in our behaviour. It is why we lock our cars and our houses, put bars on our windows, etc. They are all steps to deter crime. If potential victims are more likely to be armed, they are less attractive as targets.
The murderous duo at Columbine High, Colorado (a state which does not have a concealed handgun carry law) and the gunman in the recent Atlanta stockbroker shooting did not decide to shoot up a police station full of armed police. They went where they knew their potential victims were not likely to be armed.
As it happens, there have been several incidents over the years in the US where armed teachers or other staff have prevented or stopped killing sprees at their schools -- but such events are far less newsworthy than a successful massacre. Nor are mass public shootings confined to the US.
Lott has done a further study of multiple victim public shootings, analysing the 14 US states that adopted conceal handgun carry laws between 1977 and 1995. Lott found that the number of people shot in multiple-victim public shootings declined after such laws were introduced, while in other states it either did not decline or did not decline as rapidly. One is never quite sure which potential victim might be armed ...
In Switzerland, there is a military assault rifle in practically every home and pistol shooting is a favourite national sport. Switzerland also has low crime rates. (But who is going to take up burglary in a country with a trained possessor of a military assault rifle in almost every house?)
A very preliminary study by the Australian Institute of Criminology suggests that the tightening of gun laws in Australia after Port Arthur has led to a drop in firearm-related deaths -- mainly through less gun accidents and suicides (excluding the 35 killed at Port Arthur, gun homicides actually went up slightly from 1996 to 1997).
The news is a bit less good than it first appears, as evidence also suggests some displacement for suicide and crimes such as armed robbery to other methods or weapons. So the effect on crime appears -- on very preliminary figures -- to be very limited.
Between 1973 and 1992, the number of privately-owned firearms in the US almost doubled, the number of handguns more than doubled, yet the homicide rate and the proportion of homicides perpetrated with guns both declined. It is very difficult for a country the size of the US to successfully deprive would-be killers and criminals of weapons when it is already a relatively high gun-ownership society (there are estimated to be 240 million privately-owned guns in the US). Making it easier for potential victims to defend themselves is, on the evidence, a better choice for US policy.
But in Australia this debate is a case of "don't confuse me with the facts". Believing American gun laws prove Americans are stupid is a much more congenial piece of simple-minded self-righteousness than thinking things through.
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