Population has been synonymous with crisis for so long, it is little wonder that Australians are concerned about the level and pattern of immigration.
Well, thanks to a host of recent research, we can be a bit more relaxed about population trends.
First, the population bomb has turned into a dud. As the Danish academic Bjørn Lomborg outlined in his important new book, population growth rates are decreasing around the world in tandem with income growth. Populations in most developed countries have either stabilised or are in decline. Population growth rates are also down sharply in most developing countries -- particularly in the large countries of Asia and Latin America. As a result, world population is now expected to peak at 8.9 billion in 2050 -- or about 30 per cent higher than today -- and then decline.
Second, while many countries are facing large reductions in their populations over the next few decades, Australia's population is expected to continue to grow. Japan, for example, is forecast to experience a 20 per cent reduction in numbers over the next 30 years. Italy, Germany, Spain and many other developed countries also face significant reductions in their populations. In contrast, Australia's population is continuing to grow at a modest rate (1.2 per cent last year) and is forecast to continue on a modest growth path over the next few decades.
Third, while many countries, including some underdeveloped countries, most notably China, face major problems resulting from an aging population, Australia does not. While the Australian population is aging, this trend is not nearly as significant as it is in other counties. Australia has a relatively young population, indeed the third-youngest in the developed world. It also has a relatively large immigration program which further lowers the average age. While the dependency ratio -- the ratio of people of non-working age to people of working age -- will increase over the next five decades, it is not forecast to exceed the levels experienced during the 1970s.
Fourth, while people are still on the move internally, the flows have moderated significantly in recent years. The flight to the capital cities has stopped. Indeed, the net movement of populations is away from capital cities to coastal towns and regional cities. After experiencing large net outflows of people in the early 1990s, Victoria is now a net destination for people from other States. Many small rural towns in Victoria are, however, continuing to loose people albeit mainly to the regional centres. Tasmania is also experiencing a declining population.
Fifth, Australia is also benefiting greatly from the international flow of skilled labour. Over the five years to 1999-2000, Australia experienced a net gain of 96,526 skilled professionals -- 94,130 Australian professionals departed from our shores and 190,656 professionals came to work in Australia. Indeed, with the exception of natural and physical science professionals, Australia experienced a net gain in every professional category in each of the five years. Moreover, departing professionals characteristically return within a couple of years, while most arriving professionals tend to stay.
In summary, the evidence is that Australia faces no population crisis -- thanks largely to solid economic growth and a skills-based immigration policy.
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