Government institutions, as the custodians of important information on farm issues, once provided detailed assessments based on actual data. The current situation, however, is increasingly one where environmentalists on behalf of government institutions talk-up impending catastrophe based on the hypothetical.
Of concern is an article in the February issue of the business magazine Company Director. Supplied by the Marketing Manager at the Murray Darling Basin Commission (MDBC), the message to potential agribusiness investors is that dryland salinity is going to get much worse.
Quoting the National Land & Water Resources Audit's Australian Dryland Salinity Assessment 2000, the MDBC warns that, "the area with a high potential to develop dryland salinity in Australia would increase from 5.6 million ha in 2000 to 17 million ha in 2050 and within the Murray-Darling Basin it has estimated that about 3.4 million ha of land in the eastern and southern regions will be at risk by 2050".
Interestingly the Assessment does not distinguish between what might normally be considered irrigation salinity as opposed to dryland salinity.
The Assessment determined that areas with groundwater within 2 metres of the surface are at high risk of dryland salinity. The forecasted groundwater levels were, "based on straight-line projection of recent trends in groundwater levels". The article in the Company Director commented that, "salt is being mobilised on a massive scale as a result of rising groundwater".
Yet there appears to be no data to support the notion that we currently have a situation of rising groundwater in the Murray Darling Basin. Indeed groundwater levels in the Murray, Murrumbidgee and Coleambally irrigation areas -- the regions considered at most risk -- have generally declined during the past five years.
The CSIRO has provided the following reasons for the general decline in groundwater levels: improved land and water management practices; relatively dry climate over the past ten year; increased deeper groundwater pumping and higher induced leakage from shallow to deeper aquifers; and lower water allocations during the last couple of years.
The Assessment misrepresents the trend with respect to groundwater levels. It is evident that the document is always speculating.
Even when values are shown for years before the assessment was published (e.g. 1998), the values are "predictions", not measured statistics.
The Assessment does not provide any information about the actual measured extent of dryland salinity nor test its projections against actual outcomes.
Yet this piece of propaganda has been taken very seriously by government.
Incredibly, the misinformation has already helped secure $1.4 billion in funding for the National Action Plan for Salinity and Water Quality.
Recognising and assessing the dryland salinity threat is important. Indeed there was recently a salinity "slug" that moved down the Darling River system which was effectively managed by the MDBC.
Confusing an important task, however, with misinformation and exaggeration, risks undermining business confidence while also squandering resources and information.
Enough of the politicking, please. We need important government institutions to start providing real data on the real state of the environment.
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