The Kyoto Agreement controlling carbon dioxide emissions is in its death throes. It is dying under its own weight of hype, hypocrisy and flaws.
The agreement is failing on all counts. The United States and Australia stand out as two countries which rejected the terms of the treaty, even though both have implemented expensive measures to cut their emissions.
Three other major emitters -- India, China, and Brazil -- have rejected taking any action and, together with the US, will soon account for more than 50 per cent of the world's greenhouse gas emissions.
The EU, which has been the main proponent of the agreement, is failing to achieve its agreed target.
Indeed of the 15 EU members only two, Sweden and Britain, are likely to meet their agreed targets. Canada, the host of last week's climate-change talkfest, has already exceeded its commitments by a massive 24 per cent.
Even so, the EU countries and Canada have been lauded by the UN and its NGO cheer squad as good international citizens.
This demonstrates that there are clear PR benefits even if sanctimonious talk is not followed up with actions!
The emissions trading regime promoted by the agreement is failing. Blatant cheating by countries has undermined its use. Prohibitions placed on savings made by shifting to nuclear power and hydroelectric have made it meaningless.
Moreover, in the EU trading of emissions, along with the promotion of costly and ineffective wind and solar alternatives, has brought a 31 per cent increase in electricity prices.
The price impact, even for the puny effects of the emission restraint that is in place, is several times the cost of the optimistic forecasts on which the measures were based.
British Prime Minister Tony Blair, a major climate change cheerleader, has thrown in the towel on Kyoto. In October he acknowledged that the treaty could not work and argued for a new approach.
Kyoto has engendered a veritable army of supporters who will fight to keep the gravy train going, and the $50 million spent in Montreal last week shows that there is a lot of gravy.
Business has invested millions in the EU carbon credit trading scheme, and thousands of traders, consultants and NGOs have planned their careers around making money off Kyoto.
Thus the process will not die willingly or quietly. Nonetheless the writing is on the wall.
The solution lies with continued studies of the issues and of measures that might be wheeled in to defray emission levels.
Not only is the fact of global warming unclear, but a fully honoured Kyoto Agreement would have had only a trivial effect on temperatures.
The Asia Pacific Partnership on Clean Development and Climate, being developed by Australia, the US, China, India, South Korea, Chile and Japan, is a more promising approach.
It does not impose impossible targets. It focuses on promoting R&D. It is not biased against nuclear or hydro-electric.
It seeks to remove barriers to transferring energy efficient technology to developing countries. And it has avoided the wasteful talkfests and rent-a-crowds.
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