Between now and November 24 the task for John Howard is simple. According to the wisdom prevailing among some Liberal MPs, the Prime Minister must "save the furniture".
Given the latest polls, few Liberals are contemplating a fifth term.
Instead success for the Prime Minister will be defined as: preventing the annihilation of the coalition, keeping his own seat, and gaining an outcome that will give Liberal MPs some chance of regaining power in their lifetime. None of this is to deny the possibility of a coalition win, particularly given the size of Labor's task. Kevin Rudd could gain a large swing but still fall short of the 16 seats required for government.
It is almost bizarre that John Howard could be in such a condition at the beginning of this campaign. An argument could be made that his predicament is unprecedented in Australia history. On practically every measure, he's been a success. Unemployment is low, inflation is low, interest rates are relatively low and economic growth is strong. And it's not as though the rays of economic sunshine are a recent or fleeting phenomenon. For more than a decade Howard has presided over prosperity. Certainly more could have been done -- some would say a lot more. Last week's announcement on reconciliation is recognition of this. But politicians should be judged first on what they did do, and second on what they should have done.
The government's failures, if they could be called that, have been the product of misguided policy priorities. Although the coalition did deliver tax cuts, other than the introduction of the GST, structural reform to the tax system was deemed too difficult. Another thing the coalition found too hard was a fundamental reassessment of how the federal government should deliver and manage health, education and welfare services. For example, Medicare is basically the same now as it was 20 years ago, while our universities are more heavily regulated than ever. And Howard's folly in continuing the century-long destruction of federalism will become more obvious in the coming years.
Twice since it was formed in 1944 the Liberal Party of Australia has lost federally: in 1972 Bill McMahon was believed to be incompetent, and in 1983 Malcolm Fraser was regarded as having lost control of the country. Yet neither suffered defeat on the scale that now confronts Howard. Robert Menzies' near-death experience in 1961 came after he had already won five general elections; Howard's turn has come after just four elections. In 1961 Menzies clung to power by one seat in the wake of a government induced credit squeeze; Howard's situation is not the product of any kind of similar mistake.
As much as some would like the election campaign to be about the Iraq War or the government's treatment of refugees or its intervention in indigenous communities in the Northern Territory -- it isn't. This campaign is about two things: Howard's success and his longevity.
His problem is that the coalition has made it safe for people to vote Labor. Its success has sown the seeds for his potential defeat.
The government gets little of the credit for the country's continuing growth and the current economic conditions are taken for granted. The electorate is coming to appreciate Australia's place in global markets. But this hasn't necessarily helped the Prime Minister. Voters understand that a Labor government simply can't afford the sort of fiscal irresponsibility that once characterised the party.
Globalisation has worked to Labor's advantage. People are more likely to take risks when times are good -- and voters are no exception. As maudlin as it sounds, if the stockmarket rout of August had turned into a full-scale financial contagion, Howard's chances would have dramatically improved.
Whether the coalition likes it or not, this election is a referendum on John Howard. Since 1996 his beliefs, his character and his policies have been the foundation of the government's political triumphs. It is a formula that has worked for more than a decade.
Previous election results have been Howard's personal achievement. The same applies to this election.
ADVERTISEMENT
No comments:
Post a Comment