However you cut it, carbon dioxide is a fact of modern life

As Professor Garnaut examines ways forward in reducing Australia's carbon dioxide emissions, he will become aware of the enormity of the global task.  If burning fossil fuels causes global warming the prospects of preventing it are slender.

In 2004, greenhouse gas emissions (in CO₂ equivalents) were 28,790 million tonnes.  Just over 10 per cent of these were from the former Soviet bloc and the rest split fairly evenly between the OECD countries and the developing world.  Emissions from the OECD countries grew at 1.3 per cent per annum 1990-2004;  those of the developing countries saw annual growth at 5.7 per cent with the former Soviet bloc falling by 1.7 per cent per annum.

In spite of the rapid growth in developing country emissions, their per capita emissions remain considerably below those of the OECD countries.  In 2004, OECD emissions averaged 11.5 tonnes (the US and Canada were at 20 with Australia at 16.2).  Per capita emissions of the Developing Countries were 2.4 tonnes.

Even so, in 2008, developing countries' emissions will exceed those of the OECD countries.  This will increasingly dilute any actions taken by the developed OECD nations, the only group seriously considering abatement measures.  The increased emissions are due to the fast growing Asian economies and to smelting and other energy intensive activities being migrated to developing countries.

Table 1 illustrates recent emission levels and trends.

There have been suggestions that the developing countries should be brought into an emission reduction scheme by granting them tradable emission rights.  However there is no possibility of this being achieved at any reasonable or fair apportionment of the emission levels if emission levels are to be stabilised at their 2004 levels of 28,790 million tonnes, still less if they were to be rolled back.

This can be illustrated by the following.  If the OECD countries were to reduce their emission levels by 20 per cent, the minimum that has been floated at Bali, and the former Soviet bloc were to hold their emissions constant, to achieve stabilisation in 2030 would require the Developing Countries to limit their increases in emissions by 22 per cent as illustrated in Table 2.

While superficially generous to the developing countries the 22 per cent increase is a massive reduction compared with business-as-usual levels.  The 15 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent projected under this scenario is dwarfed by business-as-usual levels, which would see developing countries emitting over 23 billion tonnes in 2030.  Moreover, because of their population growth, limiting their emission levels to 15 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent would result in their emissions per head actually falling.

Under the mix of current technologies there is no feasible means by which stabilisation of emissions can be achieved unless developing countries were forced to follow a similar emission reduction path to OECD Countries (leaving their per capita emission levels at one quarter of those of the OECD).

There is, of course, the prospect of new technologies emerging.  Draconian cuts in emission levels would require taxes or prices on emission levels that would certainly stimulate the discovery of these as well as energy use economies.  But the necessary technological breakthroughs are barely imagined.

A wholesale replacement of coal and gas by nuclear for electricity generation would also be capable of achieving the required reductions -- at least over the next forty years.  However, those pressing most strongly for emission reductions are also fervently opposed to nuclear power.

All this leaves the only options as further increases in emission levels or forced abatement measures that will curtail the growth in living standards.

Postscript:  Perhaps any action will be in vein.  Although carbon dioxide levels are increasing, recent temperatures are not.  Notwithstanding 2007 as the year of the Nobel prizes and hype like "the hottest year on record", the satellite data is in.  It shows 2007 was not a particularly warm year and was in fact cooler than the average since 1979 when satellite recordings became available!

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