Global Warming Theories off The Boil

Professor Aynsley Kellow, the head of the School of Government at the University of Tasmania, recently released a book called "Science and Public Policy -- the Virtuous Corruption of Virtual Environmental Science" published by Edward Elgar.  In it he explains that in the early 1980s ecologists started to use mathematical models to dress up their work and make it look more scientific.

This approach has made it possible for groups like Greenpeace to use figures -- say 50,000-100,000 species extinctions each year -- with support from the scientific literature.  But until mathematical models became available they would be hard pressed to provide evidence of a single extinction.

Professor Kellow goes on to show how this misguided approach has facilitated the later development of climate models.  Until 1996, models predicted a warming climate even with constant carbon dioxide levels.

In the real world, while carbon dioxide levels have continued to rise, global temperatures have stalled.

Global temperature data from the Hadley Centre in the UK and the US National Climatic Data Centre shows there has been no warming for the last 10 years.

Indeed, 10 years is a very short period of time, but it is long enough to conclude that the global climate is not behaving in the way the models predict.

A scientist at the University of Alabama, Roy Spencer, who heads up the team analysing data on temperatures and also cloud formation from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) Aqua satellite thinks he knows why.

Dr Spencer says global warming theories are wrong when it comes to clouds and water vapour.

The global warming theory assumes warming from carbon dioxide will create more water vapour in the atmosphere and this will result in more warming.

But Aqua satellite data shows just the opposite;  that weather systems can compensate including by releasing extra water vapour as rain from low altitude clouds.

These results are not disputed by meteorologists -- but many are stunned by the findings, which will require an overhaul of current models.

It is perhaps also reasonable to now request an overhaul of government policy based on these faulty models.

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