Assuming Ted Baillieu pulls off victory following Saturday's decisive swing, both the new government and the Liberal Party will have to act quickly to position themselves for re-election.
They will face a similar challenge to that faced by Labor when it formed minority government in 1999 -- the political task will be to implement policy and gain momentum to deliver a deadly blow to their opponents in four years time.
Part of the terminal decline of the Bracks/Brumby government was its constant expansion of government at the expense of core areas of responsibility, such as transport infrastructure.
Unsurprisingly the seats that will deliver Baillieu power in the inner-city run along the major transport routes of the south and east of Melbourne. The Liberals have promised big on transport, ranging from investigation of a high-speed rail link to Sydney and Canberra and an airport link, to the building of new Southland and Grovedale stations, and 40 new trains for the suburban network.
Based on his policies, Baillieu is more like Rupert Hamer than Jeff Kennett. But to be a successful premier, he will have to take the occasional leaf out of the Kennett textbook. Building the infrastructure promised will require reprioritising spending.
To make sure enough momentum is with the government as it faces the 2014 election, there will be only a short window to start turning sods and laying rail sleepers to turn promises into policy delivery. And the same challenges are faced in health and water.
The Liberal Party also needs to start thinking strategically about its plans to renew its parliamentary ranks and find the best candidates to win the seats that escaped them on Saturday.
The election result has delivered fresh talent to swell the Coalition's party room, but most will need to spend the next four years solidifying their local vote to ensure they aren't caught in the backwash of the waves they rode in on.
Many of the continuing MPs have served since the Kennett government and this election victory has finally given them the chance of ministerial positions, but some are not expected to continue after this next term.
The party needs to start looking now at how it is going to attract quality candidates who can go into reliable Liberal seats and add further political firepower and policy weight into its ministerial ranks as it seeks re-election.
Coming so soon after the federal election, the state election result also delivers insights into the policy challenges the party now faces. The divergence between the Victorian Liberals' electoral results at a state and federal level couldn't be starker.
Running on a conservative centre-right policy agenda at the federal election, Victorian Coalition MPs got a two party-preferred vote of 44.69 per cent and lost the seats of La Trobe and McEwen, and didn't retake Corangamite and Deakin.
On the same policy agenda, the Coalition secured 51.16 and 55.14 per cent of the federal vote in New South Wales and Queensland respectively.
Running statewide on a liberal centre-right policy agenda, the Coalition got a primary vote on Saturday night that could resemble their federal two-party preferred vote, while picking up the 13 seats it needs to form government. The results have the potential to create tensions within the Liberal Party about the policies needed to win government. But they shouldn't.
Last week academic Leslie Cannold wrote that anyone ''who wants the Liberal Party to remain a part of liberalism -- not religious conservatism -- has to look at Baillieu's Liberals this time around''. But the philosophical divide between the conservative and liberal wings of the broad Liberal church are always overstated. And it is especially true in Victoria.
Baillieu's public support improved when he took firm positions on traditional Liberal issues such as law and order. But his personal branding as a more liberal Liberal has enabled him to deliver the message without alienating voters, and his Coalition with the conservative populist National Party helped build support in country Victoria.
The real message for the Liberals isn't to adopt a more or less conservative policy agenda. It's to keep the doors of its broad church open and recognise that different policy solutions work in different states. Pragmatic liberalism rooted in philosophical principles wins elections, not lurches to the left or the right.
The Liberal Party can only ever hope to govern when a large and diverse group of voters can identify their values in the policies the party projects.
Finally, the result affirms Baillieu's position and standing within the party. He has never been without internal party critics, but the result solidifies his leadership and approach and a slim majority provides the opportunity for Liberals to unite behind him.
If they do, coupled with policy delivery, parliamentary renewal and pragmatic liberalism, their capacity to turn a slim majority into a re-election that could set them up for a possible third term as well.
ADVERTISEMENT
No comments:
Post a Comment