Thursday, June 12, 2008

Tariff cuts do more than handouts

Kevin Rudd likes to project himself as the heir of the Hawke-Keating reform agenda.  But Bob Hawke and Paul Keating reformed even when it hurt politically.

The Government's own data shows that automotive industry assistance and tariffs are costing the economy the equivalent of almost 30,000 jobs.  Rudd and Innovation Minister Kim Carr should demonstrate the same ticker for reform by phasing out tariffs.

Last Thursday the Productivity Commission released its report into the economy-wide modelled effects of removing automotive tariffs and support.  The commission's modelling found that the benefits could be as high as $500 million, with most of the gains coming from removing tariffs.  The present tariff rate is 10 per cent and is scheduled to be reduced to 5 per cent in 2010.

The commission's report coincided with the announcement by Holden it would cut 500 jobs at its Fishermans Bend plant.  Following the announcement, Carr gave the strongest hint yet that the Rudd Government would act to protect jobs by freezing the tariff phase-out.

A tariff freeze would be a disaster for the Australian automotive industry and Australians generally.

The problem the industry has suffered from is that government support has shielded it from the need to adapt to changing consumer demand.  It isn't until consumer demand collapses that the industry faces a crisis and adapts.  During the past 20 years consumer demand has shifted towards smaller vehicles and sports utility vehicles.

Advocates of a tariff freeze believe it will protect jobs.  It won't.  Instead it costs sustainable jobs in viable industries.  Australian Bureau of Statistics data demonstrates the cost to jobs caused by tariffs.  In the 1980s, tariffs were as high as 57.5 per cent and Australia exported slightly less than $400 million worth of road vehicles.

Since then tariffs have been gradually phased down to 10 per cent.  In 2007 Australia exported $4 billion worth of road vehicles.

Rudd and Carr should let the numbers speak for themselves:  higher tariffs equal fewer exports, lower tariffs equal higher exports.

Analysis of the Government's data shows the true cost of protection.

Import duties on passenger cars and light commercial vehicles in the 2006-07 financial year totalled $1.2 billion.  According to the latest ABS data, the average full-time Australian income is $57,860.40.  A simple calculation shows tariffs have cost the Australian economy the equivalent of 20,740 jobs.  Similarly, between 2001 and 2015 the industry will receive $7.2 billion of assistance through the Automotive Competitiveness and Investment Scheme.  This program amounts to about $480 million a year in assistance.  The ACIS program alone costs the equivalent of 8296 average Australian jobs.

Advocates of tariffs will argue that losing these 30,000 jobs comes at the expense of saving the present 61,200 jobs in the industry.

But such an argument is based on false logic.  In the absence of existing jobs, the capital used to pay their wages would be redistributed to other sections of the economy, creating sustainable jobs elsewhere.  Government trying to protect jobs during a skills shortage is absurd.  Australia is importing labour from across the world to fill a growing void.  Yet the Government thinks it is appropriate to act to protect jobs for workers who are in dire need in other industries.

Tariffs are also unduly cruel on those working in the industry.  Temporarily propping up jobs creates disincentives for workers to reskill and adapt to the changing market.  Instead they are encouraged to stay in their present jobs until the industry falls apart.  Then they are left high and dry.  They have only the Government's tariffs to blame.

But, ultimately, the cost of tariffs are felt by ordinary Australians.  They are the ones who have to pay higher prices for vehicles because of tariffs.

Now the Government is going to splurge a further $35 million of taxpayer money to subsidise Toyota to build hybrid cars in Australia.  Doing so is building an industry on false foundations.  It is a symbolic measure so Rudd can appear as if he is doing something to reduce carbon dioxide emissions and to support jobs.

Rudd shouldn't go weak at the knees because Holden has finally cut unsustainable jobs.  When the automotive industry review's report comes to cabinet, Rudd should prove his commitment to reform, promoting innovation and reducing the burden on working families.  He can do all of this by opposing a tariff freeze.


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Friday, June 06, 2008

Regulation and the Regulatory Burden

IN MANY AREAS of government policy, the fingerprints of the prime minister are clearly visible.  When we consider the highest-profile issues of the John Howard years-foreign policy, immigration, federalism and the culture wars, just to name a few-the influence of senior Coalition ministers on the government's policies are obvious.

However, this is not necessarily the case when we look at regulation, changes in the regulatory burden, or developments in the structure of economic management.  Certainly, individual regulatory reforms can be identified and attributed to individual policy actors.  The Howard government oversaw a vast array of regulatory changes, as well as the extensive inquiries and reports which accompany them.

But it is less interesting to debate who initiated what regulatory inquiry than to step back from the policy minutiae and consider how the federal government interacts with the economy, and how it has changed over the last decade.

This approach allows us to properly attribute blame or credit where it is due.  After all, assessing the Howard government's record in the field of regulation poses slightly counter-intuitive challenges.  For instance, we have to decide how much influence we are willing to grant the government over the operation of its own bureaucracy.  We have to ask how inevitable regulatory increases are and how much the pattern of regulatory growth is a function of the historical circumstances faced by individual governments.

LIBERALISATION and privatisation have been a feature of almost all Western democracies since the early 1980s.  Australia's reform movement had been one of the more ambitious projects around the world, joining the United Kingdom and New Zealand as the most extensive.  By 1996, the Australian state which John Howard inherited had undergone more than a decade of nearly continuous economic reform.

The contemporary Australian state is a radically different beast from Australia's mid-century welfare state.  W.K. Hancock's "vast public utility" is no more, having shed its own vast state enterprises.  State and Commonwealth governments have systematically privatised a list of small and large scale enterprises traditionally operated by government -- banks, airports, telecommunications and energy utilities, laboratories, even radio stations.  Labour market reform, in a general direction of liberalisation, has been a recurrent feature of the last two decades.

In Australia, to the extent that this ambitious program of liberalisation and privatisation has been carried out, it has been largely successful in reversing the slow economic decline of the second half of the twentieth century.  But contrary to the belief held by many on both the left and right of the political spectrum, this dramatic change in systems of political economy has not been as didactic as a shift from the welfare state to a liberal -- or "neo-liberal" -- model of the political economy.  Leviathan has certainly not faded away-instead, amongst the reforms, liberalisations and privatisations of the last few decades, government has increased its expenditure and taxation.

But for our purposes, the most striking attribute of the last few decades is how Australian governments have matched privatisations and liberalisations with regulatory expansion, rather than retreat.  Governments have shifted away from the direct provision of services, to the regulation of those services.

When public utilities have been sold to the private sector, they have been placed under the jurisdiction of specialised statutory authorities whose role it is to direct and regulate those industries for public, rather than private, purposes.  Often these measures have been matched by the development of regulatory mechanisms designed to introduce competition into industries where the cost of entry is seen to be prohibitively high -- the mandatory third-party access provisions of the Trade Practices Act and allied legislation allow firms to access the infrastructure of their competitor.  Part of the reason that newly privatised enterprises have been highly regulated is the political controversy which accompanies privatisations.  When supporters of public ownership complain that the "social benefits" of public ownership are not possible in the private sector, governments respond by forcing those benefits by regulatory design.  Retail price controls in telecommunications, which have limited pricing flexibility, are an example of how this occurs.

The old protectionist or "infant industry" legal structures which applied to specific sectors of the economy, such as monopoly marketing boards and government cartelisation, have now yielded to economy-wide competition regulation.  Indeed, competition regulation has developed into its modem form parallel to the reform period.

A great deal of the growth in regulation under the modern regulatory state is social, rather than economic.  Environmental regulation has a long history -- Solon the Great proposed in the sixth century that Greek agriculture be banned from steep slopes to prevent soil erosion -- but its marked rise from the early 1970s was encouraged by the 1972 Stockholm Conference on the Human Environment.  This resulted in the establishment of national environmental agencies in many developed nations, including Australia.  During the Howard years, environmental regulation was an area of particular growth, despite the solemn pronouncements of the Coalition's green critics.  The Natural Heritage Trust, the Australian Greenhouse Office and the Environmental Protection and Biodiversity Conservation Act all represent significant increases in government intervention for environmental purposes.  Consumer product safety, particularly in the transport sector, and occupational health and safety regulations have also seen significant increases.

Financial regulation has followed an uneven path, but here too recent decades have seen significant regulatory expansion.  The "four revolutions" of financial deregulation in the early I980s-the end of official control of the exchange rate, and of exchange control over capital flows, the entry of foreign banks, and interest rate deregulation-precipitated the broader reform movement in Australia, and resulted in far greater Australian participation in global financial markets.  Certainly, these reforms rapidly changed Australia's banking sector from one of the most regulated in the world to one of the least.  But this deregulation was closely followed by an increase in financial and securities regulation after a number of corporate failures, loans crises and much public criticism of the perceived excesses of the "corporate cowboys" of the time.

In the late 1990s, the Wallis Inquiry into the financial system increased the regulatory burden across many sectors, and a number of prominent corporate collapses in the first years of the twenty-first century provided the impetus for more again.  Furthermore, participation in global financial markets has been accompanied by participation in global regulatory regimes, such as the GIO's Basel II Framework.

It is perhaps not too much of a stretch to say that, at least for those industries which before the reform period were relatively free of government intervention, many of the developments under the aegis of the regulatory state consist of an encroachment of government into the private sphere, rather than the other way around.  Writing about the parallel developments in the United Kingdom in regulation and privatisation, the regulatory analyst Michael Moran has characterised the last two decades as a period of "hyper-innovation".  This characterisation is just as apt for Australia.  The institutional certainty of Australia's mid-twentieth-century political economy has been replaced by a continuous process of regulatory and legislative reform.

As we could expect, this remarkable increase in government regulation has had a significant impact on the efficiency of the Australian economy and general levels of prosperity.  However, the focus on the economic and social impact of regulation masks its full significance:  there has been a fundamental shift in the relationship between government and society; in the mechanisms by which policy is conducted; and the institutions where political power resides.  As we shall see, during the Howard era regulatory agencies expanded and consolidated to match this enormous regulatory growth.  The power these independent agencies have over the Australian economy warrants their considerable scrutiny; and to a large degree their growth is attributable to economic reforms under the Howard government.

Indeed, this is the central story of regulation under the Coalition.

THE COALITION GOVERNMENT may not have initiated the growth of the regulatory state, but the period in which it governed saw the largest regulatory expansion in history.  For our purposes, regulation is the attempt to define the boundaries of economic activity for economic, social or environmental reasons.  Regulation is designed to modify or limit economic behaviour, but not to outlaw it.  It can be produced by explicit legislation, by subordinate legislation, by a wide variety of class orders, instruments, codes of conduct or guidelines.  Where the government restricts economic or social activity, regulation can be found.

Legislation is wider in scope and content than regulation, but it can serve as a useful proxy.  The growth in Commonwealth legislation since Federation, measured by the number of pages of Acts of Parliament passed per year, clearly illustrates a dramatic increase in legislative activity over the past few decades.  For instance, if we mark the year 1980 as the beginning of the reform period in Australia, through to 2006, there was more than five times the number of pages of legislation passed than there had been in the eight decades before this period.

It is striking how little legislative activity was required at the time of Federation to unify the country -- 358 pages, spread over two years -- compared with how much it took to manage the Commonwealth in 2006 -- a massive 6786 pages.  Certainly, the changing nature of Australia's federal structure has expanded the jurisdiction of the Commonwealth legislature, but there have been similar increases in state legislative activity -- not decreases, as would be expected if there had simply been a shift in responsibility from the states to the federal government.  Indeed, state legislation has been marked by significant growth.

And what data is available indicates that subordinate legislation -- which is commonly described as "regulation" -- is growing at a similar pace as legislation.  Subordinate legislation in the Commonwealth and the states parallels the increase in total legislation over the last four decades.  Changes in government have little effect on the relative increase in legislative activity.  As a consequence, John Howard's government was the highest legislating government in Australia's history.  Based on his performance so far, it is not hard to guess that Kevin Rudd's government might be even more active.

A similar analysis is possible by looking at the data on regulation:  the Howard government oversaw the largest regulatory expansion since Federation.  Certainly, simply counting the pages of regulation and legislation is a highly imperfect method of assessing total regulatory burden, but in the absence of a superior alternative it has been widely recognised as the most effective.  Other factors can increase the number of pages without increasing the regulatory burden.  For instance, one potential cause of the increase in pages of legislation is the move during the 1980s to plain English drafting-as opposed to the traditional legislative language inherited from England in the nineteenth century-as well as the use of double-spacing.  Formatting changes can also alter the words-to-page ratio.

Nevertheless, there is little to suggest that the plain English drafting reform or formatting changes are the sole, or even primary, cause of increasing pages of legislation -- page increases both preceded these changes and continued after they had filtered through the various tiers of government.  Technical changes in the manner in which legislation is drafted cannot explain modem legislative and regulatory excess.

For the firms and individuals affected by regulatory and legislative increases, the impact is cumulative.  Individuals not only have to act in accordance with the legislation and subordinate legislation passed in any given year-they also have to contend with the entire body of law as amended.  Some of this legislation and regulation replaces existent law; but it is clear that it is growing -- if not at the same heady pace that legislation and regulation in general is being passed.

And anecdotal evidence supports the empirical evidence for the growth in regulation.  The 2006 taskforce on Reducing the Regulatory Burden on Business noted that a particularly striking example of the level of regulation was the 24,000 different types of licences administered by three levels of government.  Telstra notes that the amount of regulatory instruments applicable to its business has grown since 1997 from twenty to 348, and that the number of reports required by the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission has been increasing by two or three per year.  This is particularly striking because the regulatory framework governing telecommunications has been relatively stable during that time.

MUCH OF THE INCREASED regulatory burden is not sector-specific, but is related to workplace law.  The Australian Construction Industry Forum has argued that the Howard government's changes to industrial relations and changes to state and federal occupational health and safety law are a significant addition to the regulation facing their industry, as well as taxation changes.  Indeed, the Income Tax Assessment Act, often used as a barometer of legislative and regulatory growth, has grown from 120 pages in 1936 to a bookshelf-crushing 7000 pages.

The Insurance Council of Australia attempted to describe the level of regulation affecting its industry by noting its effects on business structure and practice.  Regulatory compliance now compromises between 10 and 25 per cent of board and senior management workload.  One large insurer estimated a much higher work load, at least 40 per cent of senior executive time, and up to 60 per cent of board time.  One small insurer estimated that this had grown five times above the amount five years ago, and ten times over the last decade.  Another insurer estimated that compliance expenses as a percentage of operating income had more than doubled in the last five years.  Another estimated that the staff numbers in regulatory compliance committees had grown 20 to 30 per cent in the two years up to 2005.  A PricewaterhouseCoopers analyst has noted that for the insurance industry over the last five years the cost of complying with the prudential regulatory framework has increased significantly.

The Credit Union Industry Association notes that the burden on both their credit union membership and other banks and building societies has increased since the Wallis Inquiry in 1997, and attributes this to the mandatory implementation of Basel II, recent financial services reforms, changes to prudential standards, and the adoption of international accounting standards.  A practical example of this increase is provided by the Business Council of Australia:  a total of 227 pages of documentation needs to be given to a customer before they can open a simple cheque account with an overdraft limit and a home loan, roughly five times the amount in 1985.  The Australian Bankers Association reports that one bank has doubled its annual compliance expenditure levels every five years since 1994-95, with a similar growth in staff dedicated to regulatory compliance.

There has been little quantification of the extent of local government regulatory activity, but, there are indications that it is increasing.  The Australian Chamber of Commerce and Industry writes that there was a marked upswing of local government regulation as a constraint to investment between 2003 and 2005.

MANY ANECDOTAL IMPRESSIONS of the regulatory burden understate the economic impact of regulation by focusing inordinately on-the paper-burden cost rather than the total regulatory cost.  The paper-burden cost includes the cost of employees dedicated to regulatory compliance, and external legal, economic and financial consultants, and they typically constitute one-third of the total cost of regulation.

Thus, the contemporary political focus on "red tape" presents the problem of over-regulation in a narrow light.  The structure of regulation is so central to the business models and profitability of some firms that regulatory governance and compliance is an "all-of-firm" question.  For these firms, it is not necessarily possible to separate regulatory compliance costs from business costs.  The anecdotal estimates above, which focus predominantly on easily measured paper-burden costs, are, for many industries, likely to be dramatic underestimations.

The full cost of regulation is much greater than the visible cost of compliance.  Certainly, the distribution of costs caused by regulation varies by industry.  In the food sector, the primary cost of regulation is a paperburden cost.  But for much of the economy, the paperburden cost is dwarfed by the restrictions imposed by the regulations.  For instance, the "chilling effect" of access regulation dwarfs the paper-burden cost of those regulations by holding back infrastructure investment.

As Gary Banks has argued, "regulations not only create paperwork, they can distort decisions about inputs, stifle entrepreneurship and innovation, divert managers from their core business, prolong decisionmaking and reduce flexibility".  These effects are, on average, far more significant than the red tape which is required by regulators to assess compliance.  Focusing only on paper-burden costs is like focusing on the time spent filling out a tax return rather than the amount of tax paid.  Political platitudes to lower the red-tape burden offer little promise if they are not part of a general push to decrease overall regulatory intervention in the economy.  And like its predecessor, this is a point that seems unfortunately lost on the new Labor government.

Firms now operate in a much more uncertain regulatory environment than before the reform period.  This is particularly concerning because investment decisions are contingent not only on the regulatory environment in which they are made, but also on an estimate of the regulatory environment of the future.  If that future environment is plagued by uncertainty -- investors do not know what "reform" their industry can look forward to in the future -- it will be factored into the decision to invest or not.

Firms can delay investments and, through political activity, try to influence future regulatory frameworks in which that investment might be more profitable.  Where investments are irreversible, investors face two options:  invest now, or defer investment until the uncertainty is resolved.

This is not merely a consequence of uncertainty about what actions legislators may take in the future -- it can also be because of uncertainty about the actions of regulators.  For instance, ambiguous statements about the manner in which, or extent to which, regulations will be applied can exacerbate this uncertainty.

A 2001 study into the relationship between American anti-trust law and investment found strong links between levels of regulatory uncertainty and lower levels of investment-the much-cited measures of "business confidence" may be partly proxies for regulatory certainty.  A local example was recently given by the CEO of Pipe Networks, a telecommunications backhaul provider, when he argued in April 2007 that regulatory uncertainty in the telecommunications industry meant that investment in backhaul had been, at least for the moment, effectively shut down.  Indeed, many submissions to the Howard government's Taskforce on Reducing the Regulatory Burden on Business cited uncertainty about future regulations-and uncertainty about how recently-imposed laws and regulations would be interpreted by the judiciary as a major impediment to business operation.

Political regimes which have broad uncertainty about potential government intervention across the economy experience concrete effects.  And uncertainty scales with dramatic effect.  The historian Robert Higgs has found that "regime uncertainty" -- of which uncertainty about possible future regulatory decisions was a key part -- was the major factor in prolonging the Great Depression in the USA.  The anti-business rhetoric of President Roosevelt and his supporters concerned investors enough to withhold investment, even when the actual investment climate was not particularly punitive.

Regulatory hyper-innovation, regardless of the character or nature of the regulatory change, can, in and of itself, discourage productive activity.  Recognition of this effect should compel caution before pursuing continuous rapid economic reform-particularly if the economic reform in question is of a reregulatory rather than deregulatory nature.  Regulatory uncertainty in economy-wide areas like corporate governance has the potential to massively disrupt economic growth.  The effect of uncertainty on economic activity is even more concerning when the nature of what is considered proper compliance to those regulations is vague.

THE HOWARD YEARS also saw major expansion in regulatory agencies.  This trend is a reflection of the regulatory increase, but it is also a significant change in the structure of government and economic management, indicative of a rise of a sector of government that is both independent and non-democratic.  One of the biggest, and yet least appreciated changes to government under the Coalition has been the elevation of regulatory agencies to the centre of the political and economic system.  With their new-found role, they have found themselves in possession of a significant amount of political power relative to the executive and legislative branches of government.  If we are to understand the Howard government's performance in the regulatory sphere, we have to look at how institutional and legislative reforms have changed the power structure and activities of these regulatory agencies.

There are approximately sixty Commonwealth regulators and national standard-setting bodies.  There are a further forty federal ministerial councils setting and administering regulations.  While hard to estimate, the federal regulatory agencies employ over 34,000 people, with a combined budget of well over $4.5 billion.

The Victorian Competition and Efficiency Commission identified sixty-nine regulatory bodies in that state, with a combined budget (excluding the Metropolitan Fire Brigade, Country Fire Authority and Parks Victoria) of over one billion, and a staff of 6895.  The Productivity Commission extrapolates these figures to come up with an estimation of 600 regulatory agencies across the country.  Taking into account government departments with regulatory functions, ministerial councils, inter-governmental bodies, and the range of quasi-official agencies and boards, it is easy to imagine that at the end of the Howard years, at least $10 billion was spent annually on regulating the Australian economy.

Using numbers of staff as a proxy of agency size, many agencies have seen significant recent growth:  For instance, the Australian Fisheries Management Authority has nearly doubled in size in the last decade, from a staff of 100 to 186.  Food Standards Australia New Zealand has increased from 100 in June 2000 to 146 in 2006.  The Australian Pesticides and Veterinary Medicines Authority has increased in that same period from 113 to 133.  There is a large variety of regulatory agencies dedicated to regulating specific industries, like the federal Civil Aviation and Safety Authority or the Australian Fisheries Management Authority.

But occupying a central role in Australia's regulatory system are a few key economic regulators with economy-wide scope.  Rather than being confined to narrow jurisdictions, these agencies typically do not only regulate a wide variety of industries, but are also multi-dimensional in scope.  That is, Australia's major economic regulators regulate for both economic and social outcomes, as well as technical regulation like standards-setting.

These regulators are not built around the institutions that they administer, but are rather built around "functional" lines.  The Australian Securities and Investment Commission (ASIC) is responsible for consumer and investor protection, the Australian Prudential Regulatory Authority (APRA) is responsible for prudential regulation, that is, market failure associated with information asymmetries in financial contracts; and the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (ACCC) is responsible for policing anti-competitive behaviour economy-wide.  The financial services sector powerfully illustrates how reform to regulatory institutions under the Howard government has led to significant increases in the regulatory burden.

The 1997 Financial System Inquiry (the Wallis Inquiry) was only the third major inquiry into the Australian financial system since Federation, after the 1936 Royal Commission and the Campbell Inquiry in 1981.  After the "four revolutions" which followed the Campbell Inquiry, the financial market and its structure went through a dramatic overhaul, with the introduction of new institutions such as foreign exchange firms, recognised bond dealers and new types of trusts and management funds, as well as entrance into foreign exchange markets and new secondary mortgage markets.  In the decade between 1985 and 1995, the number of commercial banks in Australia increased from thirteen to forty-nine.

THE PURPOSE of the Wallis Inquiry was to assess the appropriateness of the regulatory framework which had been constructed during the period of financial deregulation in the light of these changes.  The "modest trend" towards agency consolidation internationally was noted in the inquiry's discussion paper -- the inquiry predated the now prototypical example of an "all-in-one" regulator, or "mega-regulator", the United Kingdom's Financial Services Authority (FSA).

Governance and power concentration were factors for the participants of the inquiry when recommending the ideal regulatory structure.  The inquiry rejected an FSA-style mega-regulator due to the need for efficiency and specialisation.  And the inquiry was concerned with regulatory governance, noting that the single regulator may become "excessively powerful".

But nevertheless, the Wallis Inquiry's final recommendations as adopted by the government consisted of major agency consolidation into two main organisations, the Australian Prudential Regulatory Authority (APRA) and the Australian Securities and Investment Commission (ASIC).  This model was popularly known as the "twin peaks" model, from a 1995 article which recommended delineating financial regulation according to function-prudential (APRA) and disclosure (ASIC).  Advocating this agency consolidation, Treasurer Peter Costello said before the Wallis Inquiry:

The regulatory framework is hopelessly out of date.  You have superannuation funds that are now in home lending and are essentially running banks and you have banks coming into superannuation -- you have got different institutions offering the same product, different regulators regulating the same product because they are offered by different institutions.  Why do not we cut all that away and say whatever the nature of the financial institution we will have a regulator covering prudential and a regulator covering consumer protection and we can sweep a whole lot of that away?

While the "twin peaks" model amalgamates regulatory functions in a less extreme manner "than the United Kingdom's FSA, it was nevertheless a significant consolidation.  By drawing the vast bulk of regulatory functions away from the Reserve Bank of Australia (the bank did gain some roles of the Australian Payments System Council), the new model eclipsed the international consolidations described in the inquiry's discussion paper.  It is not inaccurate to refer to the new tri-regulator model as a system of "mega-regulators", even if the FSA provides a more "pure" example of such an institution.  In both the Australian and international context, the result of the Wallis Inquiry' was the creation of two functionally-structured mega-regulators with economy-wide jurisdiction.

APRA, as a functional regulatory agency, has assumed prudential regulation of finance-based industries.  It required eleven pieces of legislation, which constituted over 4000 pages, including four new acts and two omnibus acts.  In total, APRA's foundation amended and repealed more than seventy existing acts.  APRA absorbed the entire Insurance and Superannuation Commission (ISC), as well as roughly seventy staff from the RBA who had bank regulation roles.  The prudential regulator has since experienced rapid growth, from a staff of roughly 400 at the time of transition to 570 in 2006.  The annual federal appropriation for APRA has grown 55 per cent in that time.  On top of the legislation which founded APRA, the prudential regulator has overseen more than sixty-six major regulatory changes since 2000.

For the insurance industry, the creation of APRA represented a significant increase in regulatory activity covering the sector.  Under the ISC, the insurance industry had been regulated relatively lightly.  In the view of the new consolidated regulator, this light-handed regulation was unsatisfactory.  APRA's Executive General Manager of Policy, Chris Littrell, argued:  "Until 2001 the Australian general insurance industry was characterised by an unsatisfactory culture of reluctant regulatory compliance by some entities, even among our largest companies."

Indeed, following the HIH insurance collapse, Littrell argued that eliminating this cultural clash was one of the early tasks that the regulator faced:

As an integrated supervisor, APRA is in a position to observe the managerial differences between our regulated sectors.  Banks in general are run by people who are or have been risk managers, and by people who understand that regulation has its good points.  In Australia at any rate, many insurance companies have been dominated by salesmen, who often viewed regulation as something to be avoided.  Having come up the career ladder by dealing with actuarial restrictions, they tended to treat regulatory requirements as another annoyance to overcome, rather than a guide to good practice.

While HIH's collapse and the subsequent royal commission heralded the beginning of a major wave of regulatory increases in the insurance industry, its genesis was the foundation of APRA itself, which coupled the insurance industry with the much more highly regulated banking industry.  Indeed, plans to increase regulation of the general insurance industry preceded the 2001 collapse of HIH.  The Financial Services Reform Act 2001 classified most insurance as a "financial service" -- with the notable exceptions of reinsurance, health insurance and government insurance-and therefore required an Australian financial services licence.  Financial product advice, dispensed by intermediaries not directly providing insurance, also required licences under the 2001 Act to do so.  The Act also imposed significantly increased product disclosure requirements, and capital and corporate governance requirements.

The Association of Superannuation Funds of Australia, in its submission to the Reducing Regulation Taskforce, stated that since the establishment of ASIC and APRA, supervisory levies paid by superannuation funds had increased dramatically.  Indeed, APRA's expenses relating to superannuation have grown, even though the number of superannuation funds has decreased significantly.

For the banking sector, a great deal of the regulatory change after the foundation of APRA was concerned with the transfer of regulatory authority from the still-existent RBA towards the new prudential regulator.  But the most significant regulatory change has been adopting the Basel II Capital accords.

The implementation of Basel II under the auspices of a mega prudential regulator has, for many organisations, had the effect of a dramatic increase in regulatory burdens.  Basel II constructs an internationally consistent framework for banking capital requirements and accounting standards.  For large, internationally active banks, implementing Basel II has much important significance.  However, for smaller domestically-based authorised deposit-taking institutions, Basel II provides little benefit.  For credit unions, whose involvement in international markets is low, the cost of implementing the framework is precipitously high.  Similarly questionable benefits have accompanied APRA's uniform adoption of the International Financial Reporting Standards, which affects major, internationally active Australian banks and small domestic co-operatives like the St Mary's Swan Hill Co-operative Credit Society alike.

APRA's activities illustrate clearly the perils of uniformly applying regulations that are designed for a specific class of institution.

UNDER THE TWIN PEAKS model of financial regulation, ASIC regulates company and financial services law for consumer, investor and creditor protection.  Where APRA regulates for the viability of financial institutions, ASIC's many briefs include regulating conduct and disclosure, administering corporations law and consumer protection.  To do so, it administers eight separate laws, including the Corporations Act 2001, Australian Securities and Investments Commission Act 2001, and the Insurance Contracts Act 1984.

ASIC was drawn from the Australian Securities Commission, and in 1998 absorbed the consumer protection responsibilities in insurance and superannuation of the ISC.  It also drew consumer protection responsibilities in finance from the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission, replicating Section 52 of the Trade Practices Act in the ASIC Act.  Further, ASIC absorbed the consumer protection responsibilities of the Australian Payments Systems Council and financial sector industry codes of conduct.  In 2005-06, ASIC had regulatory responsibility for 1.5 million corporations and 4415 financial services businesses.

ASIC's growth has been the most marked of the economic regulators.  Since 1999, the regulator's annual real appropriations have increased by 76 per cent.  Its staff has grown from 1221 to 1471.

ASIC has overseen a rapid and comprehensive overhaul of corporate governance law under the Corporate Law Economic Reform Program (CLERP).  The rapid, comprehensive change in corporate law under the continuous process of CLERP, as well as the Wallis Inquiry-era reforms which inaugurated ASIC, have been matched by the regulators use of legal instruments to modify the Corporations Act 2001.  Since 2002, ASIC has issued more than 380 class orders, which materially alter the terrain of corporate law.  Indeed, the Association of Superannuation Funds of Australia argues that ASIC's reliance on instruments like class orders has been a major cause of the increased complexity of corporate regulation in the last decade.

The gains from the expanding reach of regulatory intervention in the structure of the firm are uncertain.  Prominent corporate collapses have been a regular feature of Australian economic history since before Federation.  There is, however, little evidence to suggest that the dramatic increase in corporate, securities, financial and banking regulation that followed the wave of corporate collapses in the late 1980s has had any significant impact on subsequent collapses.

There is a very real likelihood that the excessive restraints placed upon corporate form and function, particularly at the executive and upper management level, can have a detrimental effect on entrepreneurial activity.  Regulatory micromanagement places a significant burden upon innovative practices and structures.  It also induces substantial costs upon firms.  For instance, regulatory measures which attempt to foster "compliance culture" by imposing personal legal liability for business decisions upon executives reduce the incentive to take up those senior management positions, and raise the salaries of those who do.

As with all tax and regulatory burdens, firms try as far as possible to pass these costs on to the consumer.  It is indicative that an August 2006 CPA Australia survey found a strong perception that the overwhelming beneficiaries of CLERP 9 auditing processes reforms were regulators and auditors.

The other major federal economic regulator is the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission, which has also seen significant growth in staff and resources.  However, compared to ASIC and APRA, the ACCC's regulatory regime was relatively stable during the period of the Howard government, further reinforcing the view that regulatory agencies and bureaucracies grow regardless of any obvious "need" to do so.  Telecommunications and media regulation saw a major change in 2003 when the Australian Communications Authority and the Australian Broadcasting Authority merged to form the Australian Communications and Media Authority.  Furthermore, the Reserve Bank, the Australian Taxation Office, and the Australian Customs Service all exit the Howard decade with substantial regulatory powers.

HOW MUCH of the blame for this remarkable increase in the regulatory burden and high levels of regulatory uncertainty can be laid at the door of the prime minister's office?  The phenomenon described above is, unlike some other ways we can measure government activity, diffuse.  It is not a phenomenon that is subject to system-wide review by the senior ministry, unlike, for instance, government spending, which is constantly subject to the scrutiny of the budget process.  For this reason, one of the perennial tasks of regulatory watchdogs like the Productivity Commission and VCEC is simply to estimate the size of the regulatory state.  Given the paucity of published information, these agencies can only guess at how many regulatory agencies there are across the country, let alone determine how much we spend on them.

The origins of regulation vary significantly.  Some do, unquestionably, originate in cabinet-level policy decisions.  Populist regulations which cover issues like pornography on the internet or teen drinking are just as much political strategy as regulating, and are consequently of interest to senior government ministers.  But these regulations are only a small portion of the total regulatory burden-internet filtering may be a high profile regulation, but is ultimately a drop in the pool compared to the gigantic array of rules which the government administers.

Furthermore, the prime minister's office is not directly responsible for minor changes to the finer points of financial service regulation, consumer product regulation, or occupational health and safety laws.  Indeed, even those regulatory frameworks which are high-profile are ultimately defined by individuals well down the chain of government delegation from the cabinet.  For example, while the WorkChoices reform program may have had its origins in the senior ministry, the complexity of its regulatory and legislative framework is largely attributable to thousands of minor decisions made by a diverse array of lawyers, regulators and advisers who actually drafted the nearly 2000 pages of regulation and legislation.  The government may have signed off on the final WorkChoices bill, but they did so because their more informed and technocratic subordinates convinced them that deregulation meant re-regulation.

Similarly, it is not fair to blame the Howard government for the substantial regulatory burden emanating from the states, or for the petty regulations imposed by local government, both of which constitute a substantial part of the regulatory landscape.  The federal government can exert a degree of pressure on the other levels of government to reduce regulation, as it did under periodically during the Howard era, but doing so rarely does more than continue to erode our crippled federalism.

If we are to discover a major source of much of the regulatory increase over the past few decades, it is also necessary to cast our eye over the regulatory agencies themselves.  Regulators are delegated substantial amounts of discretionary power to make decisions regarding the structure of their jurisdiction's regulatory framework, which gives them significant political power.  These regulators are systematically biased towards an ever more expansive interpretation of their proper role in the economy and, compounding this, the "cat-and-mouse" nature of regulatory negotiation and compliance leads regulators to lobby for legislative enhancements to their coercive powers.  The powers and independence with which regulators have been vested means that they operate in a substantially separate sphere to the executive branch of government.  To a surprising degree, regulatory agencies are autonomous actors in Australia's political system.  The capacity for the government to restrain their decisions, and therefore the degree to which we should consider the government responsible for their excesses, is limited.

Nevertheless, it would be easy to conclude, on the basis of the growth of regulation and the extremely modest efforts made to reduce the regulatory burden, that the Howard government's performance in this field was a failure.  But we cannot measure governments against our ideal visions of free market economies-the economic study of politics which has developed over the last half-century has repeatedly emphasised the structural barriers to free market reform, and it is an all-too-common intellectual failure of right-of-centre politics to ignore these in debate.  As Adam Smith noted in The Theory of Moral Sentiments, perfection is rarely the correct yardstick:

When a critic examines the work of any of the great masters in poetry or painting, he may sometimes examine it by an idea of perfection, in his own mind, which neither that nor any other human work will ever come up to; and as long as he compares it with this standard, he can see nothing in it but faults and imperfections.  But when he comes to consider the rank which it ought to hold among other works of the same kind, he necessarily compares it with a very different standard, the common degree of excellence which is usually attained in this particular art; and when he judges of it by this new measure, it may often appear to deserve the highest applause, upon account of its approaching much nearer to perfection than the greater part of those works which can be brought into competition with it.

Following Smith, if we acknowledge the structural impediments to regulatory reform, we must ask how successful the Howard government was relative to other governments.  It is easier to be sympathetic to the Coalition when we recognise that no Australian government has ever passed less legislation than its predecessor -- regulation appears inevitably to escalate over time.

But that does not mean regulation cannot be restrained.  One of the great successes of the Reagan administration was to slow the rate of legislative and regulatory expansion significantly, particularly after the excesses of the Carter years.  Data from the Federal Register -- which records rules, proposed rules and notices of the federal government -- shows clearly that unlike in Australia, during the 1980s the United States saw a notable slowdown in the rate of regulatory growth.

Certainly, slower regulatory growth is not deregulation.  There were more pages in the Federal Register at the end of the Reagan administration than at the start.  But the US experience does seem to indicate that growth can be restrained, if not entirely resisted.

So what are the lessons of the Howard era?  John Howard was always a passionate supporter of the reform agenda, if not always a passionate reformer.  But there is little to suggest that his government was aware of the significance of regulation as a restraint on economic growth, at least until its last few years, when its deregulatory rhetoric became louder.  When the Prime Minister's Taskforce on Reducing the Regulatory Burden reported its findings, the government provided in-principle support for its recommendations but little action.

It is easy for a government to profess its distaste for over-regulation -- after all, is there anybody who actually likes "red tape"? -- but it is much harder for governments to nominate specific regulations which they have the political will to cull.  The regulatory burden is more than the sum of its parts.  Individual regulations still have to be removed individually.  And when governments try, they come up against the institutional and political interests which have formed around those regulations.  For this reason, a program for economy-wide deregulation has to be piecemeal, but systematic.

So if our wishes for deregulation are ever to be indulged, advocates of a free economy and free society have to hope for a political movement that shares our goals.  Ronald Reagan may be our closest contemporary who worked to slow, if not reduce, regulation, but history does provide one example of a grand regulatory purge.  The English Whigs and early Liberals are one of those rare examples in history that conducted a wide scale regulatory and legislative purge.  The English had a long history of mercantilism and state power to recant.  It has been estimated that, of the 18,110 Acts which had been passed between Henry III and 1873, four out of five were fully or partly repealed.  Both the Reagan administration and the great English liberalisation shows us that deregulation is possible, but doing so requires a formidable dedication to reducing the power and size of government.

This was a dedication the Howard government lacked.  In its absence, there was no institutional or philosophical bulwark against regulatory growth, whatever the origins of those regulations.  The eleven years of Coalition rule merely illustrates the enormous challenge of reducing the regulatory burden.


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Thursday, June 05, 2008

Driving in two directions on fuel

Two things stand out about the Rudd era of Australian politics.  First, there is the Prime Minister's love of slogans -- "working families" and "education revolution" are political slogans par excellence.  Second, there is the Prime Minister's talent for symbolism.  We've had a signing, a summit and an apology.

It was inevitable that the slogans and the symbolism would collide.  Climate change policy is the first big test of which of the two will be triumphant.  Kevin Rudd has a dilemma:  does he maintain his promise to working families and do everything possible to keep down the price of petrol?  Or does he implement his election commitment to cut greenhouse gases, which could result in petrol prices going up by 25 cents a litre?  That increase is a conservative estimate of the effect of the carbon emissions trading scheme Labor has said it will introduce within the next two years.

Australian politicians are powerless to prevent the petrol price rises of the last few months.  Not even Rudd can control the global price of oil.  But a climate change tax on petrol is different.  If the price of a litre of petrol goes up by 25 cents, it will be because of a Government decision.

The response of some people will be "good".  Those who complain about gas-guzzling four-wheel-drives will be particularly pleased if Rudd makes petrol more expensive.  The hope of environmentalists, urban planners and politicians is that dearer petrol will force everyone to use their cars less and public transport more.  Or better still, car drivers will be forced to walk.  But these hopes ignore several realities.

The lesson from overseas is that if petrol prices rise, families don't necessarily buy less petrol.  All that happens is that they spend more of their money on petrol and less on other things.  And if you think about it for a moment, this makes sense.

When was the last time you drove your car for the fun of it?  People drive their car when there isn't a better alternative.  Cars provide a convenience that other modes of transport can't match.  The effort of taking the children to Saturday morning sport, picking up some shopping and then visiting the grandparents in the afternoon would take on a whole new dimension for many Melbourne families if they couldn't use their car.

The impact of higher petrol prices is felt disproportionately by lower income earners.  Someone earning $100,000 a year can more easily afford expensive petrol than someone earning $50,000.  There has been talk of the Government providing compensation to make up for the effect of climate change taxes, but invariably such compensation would go only to those on very low incomes.  Working families where one or both adults are employed probably wouldn't be compensated.

Melbourne's public transport system is bad enough as it is.  There's no way the system could cope with hundreds of thousands of additional commuters.  The consequences of overstretching an already failing system are not simply crowded and standing-room-only trains and trams.  Delays and cancellations cost commuters time that could be spent at home with their families and that can't be replaced.

Furthermore, not all of Melbourne is served by public transport.  Many of Melbourne's newer suburbs have inadequate or no public transport.  Rudd hasn't yet explained what will happen to the household budgets of working families if petrol goes up 25 cents a litre and the only way the family breadwinner can get to work is by car.  Those budgets will be further stretched because higher petrol prices increase the cost of those things transported by road, such as food.

Whether climate change is real and whether it's caused by humans is not the issue when it comes to examining the impact of climate change taxes on petrol prices.  The real issue is that climate change taxes will hurt working families.

Australians think petrol is already too expensive.  They resent the fact that one-third of the price of petrol goes to the government in tax, and that when it comes to petrol the government levies a tax on a tax.

At best, the effect of the FuelWatch scheme will be to make petrol cheaper by a cent or two a litre.  At worst, FuelWatch could make petrol more expensive in some parts of Melbourne.  As interesting as the political debate of the past few weeks has been, if climate change taxes raise petrol prices by 25 cents a litre, FuelWatch will be irrelevant.


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Wednesday, June 04, 2008

Iemma puts a spanner in the works

Why is the NSW government acting as a spoiler over Prime Minister Kevin Rudd's Forward with Fairness?

With the death of Work Choices and the ALP controlling every government in Australia, a unique opportunity exists to clean up workplace relations laws nationally.

Workplace relations should not be a states' rights issue.  Differences between the states on industrial relations law no longer reflect competitive differences, but impose national inefficiencies without benefiting workers.

Australia has just gone through an extended period of angry debate over workplace relations laws.  Work Choices split the country.  Morris Iemma's NSW government was at the forefront of anger over Work Choices and he praised Rudd's Forward with Fairness as the alternative model.

But now that Rudd is trying to implement Forward with Fairness nationally, the Iemma government is fouling up the process.  Look what's been happening.

Federal Workplace Relations Minister Julia Gillard has been negotiating an agreement with the states to implement Forward with Fairness.  Back in January this year the Iemma government commissioned a report that essentially said Forward with Fairness should not be fully implemented in NSW.  Iemma's Industrial Relations Minister, John Della Bosca, has been lobbying the other states to support his watering down of Forward with Fairness.

The state and federal IR ministers have now agreed to a set of principles for a national IR system.  It's clear a national Forward with Fairness model is effectively dead.  The states, mainly NSW, have not agreed to properly implement Forward with Fairness.  The inter-governmental agreement means states can and will continue to operate their own state based systems.  This is a massively lost opportunity.  What's the key issue?

Rudd's plan removes the old Industrial Relations Commission and replaces it with a simpler body called Fair Work Australia, designed to do away with much of the complicated legal processes that have plagued the system for too long.

But the Iemma government is intent on keeping the legal complexity in place in NSW by retaining the NSW Industrial Relations Commission.  It's nonsense.  The NSW system has long had the reputation of being the most legally complicated in Australia.  Over the past decade NSW Labor has made it more complex.  This doesn't serve the interests of business or workers in NSW or nationally.  Excessive complication was a major criticism levelled against Work Choices.

What's needed is simplicity and consistency across the states.  Forward with Fairness offers a one-off chance.  Take one example, unfair dismissals.  Present unfair-dismissal cases can take years to be heard and resolved.  It costs thousands of dollars in legal fees for each case.  Any payout to an unfairly dismissed person is usually eaten up by lawyers, let alone the costs to business.  NSW is the worst state.

Forward with Fairness will shift unfair-dismissal cases for small businesses out of the hands of lawyers and into simpler mediation processes.  The emphasis will be on fixing problems between workers and bosses.  If payouts to workers are to occur, lawyers won't take the money.  It's fairer and makes common sense.  This small business template is a likely model for all business.

But Iemma doesn't want this, it appears.  He is pushing to keep NSW unfair-dismissal laws in a retained state Industrial Relations Commission.  Della Bosca has led the charge for Iemma and is in deep conflict with Canberra.  NSW is gumming up national workplace reform.

What should happen?  Arguably the NSW industrial relations system may have once served NSW well.  But it was and is geared towards conflict in the workplace.  In reality the system itself now creates conflict when what's needed is workers and business working together.  This is the recognition inherent in Forward with Fairness.

It's a new system that's intended to lock in core minimum standards and protections.  It targets minimisation of legal complexity, seeking resolution to practical workplace problems in practical ways.  As a national model it holds the prospect of vastly improved workplace relations arrangements across Australia.

The key stumbling block is the old ideological warriors clinging to their factional power obsessions in NSW.  Workers, business and the community no longer live life on the basis of class warfare assumptions.  The workplace system needs to grow up.  And so does Labor in NSW.


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Monday, June 02, 2008

Free speech means the right to obscene speech, too

The French philosopher Voltaire never actually said the words he is best known for:  "I disapprove of what you say, but I will defend to the death your right to say it".  His biographer invented the saying to explain Voltaire's views on free speech.  Still, it's a great line.

But how many people agree with it?  How many people would be willing to go to the barricades for racist, sexist or obscene speech -- the sort of stuff that exists only in the deep bowels of the internet?  Probably very few.

But if we are concerned about free speech at all, we need to defend some people saying some pretty terrible things.

When debating politics, few people would favour locking up their opponents, no matter how ill-informed or distasteful their views may be.  There's a big difference between strongly disagreeing with somebody's opinion and insisting that they are banned from expressing it.

The solution to bad speech is simply more speech -- one cannot successfully rebut an argument without first allowing that argument to be expressed.

This is the reason that David Marr's Quarterly Essay -- which argued that the Howard government was somehow suppressing dissent -- was so popular last year.  Political censorship is abhorrent.  Almost everybody is happy to let others rant and rave about any political point they like -- monarchy, capitalism, foreigners stealing our jobs, the phallocentric patriarchy etc.  So there is legitimate anger when the government tries to silence even the most ridiculous opinion about politics.

Nevertheless political censorship is so rare that it is hardly a pressing issue in Australia.  Commentators trawl the papers trying to charge the government as an opponent of political dissent.  Every possible infringement -- real or, more often, imagined -- gets highly publicised.

But if we really want to defend free speech in 2008 -- if we believe that free speech is a right that we are born with, not a limited gift given to us by politicians -- sometimes we may need to make common cause with extreme pornographers, racists, misogynists and other very dislikeable individuals.

Last Tuesday, a 38-year-old Brisbane man, William Reimers, received 12 months probation for possessing five fictional stories about child abuse that he had downloaded from the internet.

Unlike Bill Henson's famous photographs, there is no ambiguity about the purposes of these stories.  With titles like "Daddy's Best Little Girl", they were clearly not art.  Reimers was charged under laws that consider descriptions of children in sexual activity as child pornography.

Cate Blanchett and her 2020 team will be unlikely to rush to the defence of somebody downloading dirty stories from the internet.  But in many ways, Reimers' arrest is more worrying than the controversy surrounding Henson.  Where there are legitimate concerns about Henson's artistic practice -- at what age can somebody "consent" to nude photography? -- there are no such concerns with Reimers.

The stories he collected were entirely fictional.  In fact, as far as we know, nobody was harmed at any time while they were written, put on the internet, downloaded, or read.  And there doesn't appear to be any indication that the stories were incitements to commit violence.  Sure, the stories were the products of a sick mind.  But would the arguments presented in the case against Reimers also apply to non-fictional -- and non-erotic -- descriptions of child abuse?  This is a slippery slope.

Having to defend people with repellent views and beliefs is the grimy side of standing up for civil rights.  In the US, which has a richer tradition of liberty than Australia, doing so is widely recognised as part of the job.  The American Civil Liberties Union has defended not just the uncontroversial rights of religious liberty, immigrant rights and gay rights, but also the rights of neo-Nazis and the Man-Boy Love Association to express their views.  Nobody in the union would agree with the views of these groups, but they defend their right to express them.

If we think that the right to free speech stops where perversion starts, then we allow judges and politicians to impose their views of morality upon the rest of us.  A right which is limited by the opinions of a conservative legislator is no right at all.


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Sunday, June 01, 2008

Planning adds to high costs

In July, the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission is due to report on grocery prices.

Groceries comprise about a fifth of the family budget.  Other retail goods have a slightly smaller share.

Regulatory arrangements are the best place to start looking for the causes of any excessive costs.

Unless regulation prevents new suppliers from entering a market, businesses will normally cut each others' throats to win business.  Competitors will be attracted to highly profitable sales opportunities like moths to an electric light.  And this will bring prices down.

A supplier shielded from rivals by government restrictions can raise prices and still retain customers.

Most of the price of goods in supermarkets is accounted for by wholesale costs with running costs and rents providing the rest.

There are many suppliers of grocery goods and they are largely free from regulatory supply limitations.  However, to obtain shopping centre sites, developers face tough regulatory barriers.

Governments seek to limit the availability of new centres.  Originally this was to ensure good transport links, but development restraints have become means by which shops and shopping centres are protected from competition.

Stringent approval processes create shortages of retail sites that best meet consumer demands.  As with the supply of any other good or service, shortages bring excessive prices.  And those excessive prices mean high rents for shopping centres and other retail outlets.

Twenty years ago, the Hawke government set out to reform and remove regulation.  Almost uniquely, planning approvals and zoning laws, including those covering shopping centre sites, were largely exempted from this reform program.

Governments mistakenly believed that the availability of shops was immune from the laws of supply and demand.  Zoning laws protected suppliers from rivals and limited customers' access to alternative outlets, failing to appreciate that this would bring higher prices.

For bulky and fashion goods, direct factory outlets have sprung up around all of Australia's major cities.  Like Melbourne's Tullamarine development, these have usually taken advantage of surplus Commonwealth airport land that was beyond the authority of restrictive state government planning laws.

Releasing that land has smashed state governments' planning restraints.  State governments and planners were furious at their consequent loss of control and its associated patronage from developers, but the upshot was a great service to the consumer in bringing about lower prices.

Unfortunately the sites close to airports, though ideal for fashion and bulky goods are less suitable for supermarkets.  Hence the regulatory scarcity created by planning restraints has continued to mean excessive rental costs for supermarket sites.

These higher costs are passed on to the consumer in grocery prices.  Some indication of the extent of this has been gathered by a developer association, the Urban Taskforce.

This shows that Australian shop rents add an extra 10 per cent to prices compared to overseas best practice.

After five years seeking planning permission, giant US grocery retailer, Costco, is getting close to opening a store in Melbourne.  That's great news for the consumer.

But the ACCC should investigate why this has taken so long and, in its July report, propose means of combating regulatory restraints on retail competition.


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Saturday, May 31, 2008

A critique of the ACCC analysis of the FuelWatch scheme

SUMMARY

Much has been made of the Australian Competition & Consumer Commission analysis of the Western Australian FuelWatch scheme.  This paper investigates the ACCC analysis published last December (Appendix S) and comments briefly on the additional analysis the ACCC released on May 29, 2008.

The ACCC data has not been released to the public, nor have they been very clear as what analysis has been done.  The ACCC has been vague in reporting their econometric techniques and have simply published tables, expecting the public to accept their analysis at face value.

The ACCC did not investigate the entry of Coles into the WA market in their analysis.  The analysis shown below does do that, and finds that the "Coles effect" completely dominates the FuelWatch effect.  Once the Coles effect is included in the analysis it is clear that FuelWatch has had no effect on average monthly prices in the WA market.

The analysis below consists of comparing average monthly prices before and after FuelWatch started up and before and after Coles entered the WA market.  That very basic analysis is then confirmed using basic and standard (ordinary least squares) regression analysis.

The original ACCC analysis is found to be very sensitive to starting and end points, consequently the ACCC analysis can not be described as being "robust".

On May 29, 2008 the ACCC released new and apparently more sophisticated analysis, but do not say what type of econometric analysis they performed.  Indeed the analysis did not even report standard diagnostic statistics such as standard errors or p-values.  This makes it impossible to analyse the new results.  It is important to note, however, that in the later analysis the ACCC argues that "there is no evidence that the introduction of Fuelwatch in Western Australia led to any increase in prices", while originally they argued that the evidence showed that the relative price margins were lower after FuelWatch was introduced than before.

  • The ACCC analysis is not convincing.
  • The ACCC analysis remains unconvincing after 29 May -- the new analysis is even vaguer than the original analysis released in December 2007.
  • The ACCC did not test for a "Coles effect" in their December 2007 analysis.
  • The Coles effect totally dominates the FuelWatch effect.
  • Based on the analysis shown below it appears that FuelWatch has had no effect on the average monthly price differential in WA relative to the eastern states.
  • The ACCC claim to now test for a Coles effect, but do not say what test they have actually performed.

INTRODUCTION.

The FuelWatch scheme was introduced in Western Australia in January 2001.  The purpose of the scheme is to provide certainty to consumers as to petrol prices for a fixed period of time.  In practice, service stations are required to notify FuelWatch of their prices for the next day.  On the following day, beginning at 6am the service station prices are fixed for 24 hours.

In December 2007, the Australian Competition & Consumer Commission (ACCC) released its report into petrol pricing in Australia.  This report included an Appendix (Appendix S) that contained an econometric analysis of the FuelWatch scheme.  That econometric analysis has been widely cited as demonstrating that the FuelWatch scheme has led to lower prices in Western Australia.  This paper provides a critique of that analysis and shows that the ACCC analysis is not robust and does not demonstrate what it purports to demonstrate.

On the 29 May 2008 the ACCC released a document that purported to provide details of "further FuelWatch econometric analysis".  That document, however, moves the goalposts by claiming that "there is no evidence that the introduction of Fuelwatch in Western Australia led to any increase in prices".  The new ACCC analysis that the introduction of FuelWatch "appears to have resulted in a small price decrease overall".


THE ORIGINAL ACCC ANALYSIS.

The ACCC collected weekly, monthly and weekly minimum data for the period 1 August 1998 to 8 June 2007.  They then calculated the following Price Margin measure

Price Margin = (Retail price – lagged Mogas95 price – net taxes – fuel quality premium) Perth

less

(Retail price – lagged Mogas95 price – net taxes – fuel quality premium) average of eastern capitals (1)

The ACCC defend this measure on the basis that it removes factors that are beyond the control of FuelWatch.  The lagged Mosgas95 price is the base supply price of petrol and is lagged one week.  It is difficult to understand why this figure has been subtracted from the retail price as I imagine it would be constant across Australia.  Unfortunately, the ACCC analysis gives no indication as to whether this figure does vary across the various states.  Similarly it is not clear whether the net taxes figure varies across states.  The mandated fuel quality does vary across states, but the ACCC analysis gives no indication as to what those figures or variations might be.  In other words, the measure of interest is not transparent.  The ACCC does not provide any summary data.

The ACCC then undertakes a "unit-root test" to ensure the measure is stationary.  This is important for technical econometric reasons.  The ACCC analysis then investigates whether the data exhibit a structural change after the introduction of FuelWatch.  It appears that the ACCC estimated the following equation:

Price Margint = α + βFWt + εt (2)

Where α = constant representing the average Price Margin before the FuelWatch scheme was introduced, β = the average impact of the FuelWatch scheme, FWt is a dummy variable = 1 after 2 January 2001 and = 0 before 2 January 2001 and εt = an error term.

The ACCC estimate three versions of the equation, one for each of the three time series versions of Price Margin.  They report the results in their Table S2 (reproduced below).

Table S2 Structured break test 3 for relative price margin, cpl,
August 1998 to June 2007

SeriesAverage
(August 1998 to December 2000)
Average
(January 2001 to June 2007)
Weekly average0.83(0.002)-1.92(0.000)
Monthly average0.88(0.001)-1.86(0.000)
Weekly minimum0.30(0.277)-0.90(0.003)

3 Coefficient given with p-value in brackets.
Diagnostic testing indicated serial correlation so Newey West standard errors used.
Source:  ACCC estimates


To understand this table, look at the Monthly average row.  The number 0.88 indicates that there was, on average a 0.88 cent per litre (cpl) difference between the Perth net price and the average of the eastern capitals net price before FuelWatch was introduced.  This figure corresponds to the α-term in the equation (2).  The number in parenthesis (0.001) indicates that the 0.88cpl difference is statistically significantly different from zero.  The figure -1.86 represents the impact FuelWatch had on the Price Margin;  this is the β-term in equation (2).  This implies that the Perth net price fell, on average, by 1.86cpl relative to the average of the eastern capitals following the introduction of FuelWatch.  The number in parenthesis (0.000) indicates that the -1.86cpl difference is statistically significantly different from zero.

This analysis is consistent with the argument that the FuelWatch scheme lead to lower prices following its introduction in 2001.  The ACCC does, however, discuss some caveats to the analysis.  For example, the impact of the fuel quality premium is considered.  If we assume that the Mosgas95 price is equal across Australia and the net taxes on fuel are equal across Australia, the equation (1) can be reduced as follows:

Price margin = (Retail price Perth – Retail price Average of eastern capitals)

less

(Fuel quality premium Perth + Fuel quality premium Average of eastern capitals)

If the relative retail price premium is reasonably constant over the whole time period, but the relative fuel quality premium increases over time, we might expect the β-term in (2) to be negative.  The ACCC claims that the difference in fuel quality premia has decreased over time.  Presumably the eastern states have increased the quality of their fuels and WA has not reduced the quality of its fuels.  In other words, the relative quality fuel premium could be explaining the results.  The ACCC claims to have investigated whether this is driving the results, but does not report that analysis other than to say the overall result is robust to the exclusion of the fuel quality premium.


AN ALTERNATE ANALYSIS.

The ACCC argue that, "Of potentially greater concern is the possibility that something else entirely has driven the improvement in the relative price margin." That is always a possibility.  The ACCC, however, do not investigate the most obvious other factor -- the entry of Coles into the WA market in March 2004.  Using monthly data collected from the Australian Automobile Association I investigate that possibility.

I calculate the following equation:

Relative Pricet = α + β1FWt + β2Colest + εt (3)

Where Relative Pricet = Average Price Perth – Average Price Eastern Capitals in month t, α = a constant representing the average Relative Price before the FuelWatch scheme was introduced, β1 = the average impact of the FuelWatch scheme, FWt is a dummy variable = 1 after 2 January 2001 and = 0 before 2 January 2001, β2 = the average impact of the entry of Coles, Colest is a dummy variable = 1 after March 2004 and = 0 before March 2004 and εt = an error term.

I calculate two measures for Relative Price.  The first measure P1 is the Perth Average monthly price less the average of the monthly averages for Adelaide, Darwin, Melbourne, Hobart, Sydney and Brisbane.  The second measure P2 is the Perth Average monthly price less the average of the monthly averages for Adelaide, Melbourne, Sydney and Brisbane;  this corresponds to the eastern capitals that the ACCC used in their analysis.  Consistent with the ACCC analysis, I use the time period August 1998 to June 2007 for the empirical analysis.  The graph shows the time series of the data and table one shows some summary statistics.

Looking at the graph, it is not clear that the relative price responded much to the introduction of FuelWatch in January 2001.  The large decline in the relative price occurred after December 2003 (when Woolworths entered into the WA market) and continued after Coles entered the WA market in March 2004.

Table One: Summary Statistics for Relative Price.

P1P2
Average Before FuelWatch-0.502.60
Average After FuelWatch-1.331.57
(0.0244)(0.0041)
Average After Coles-2.510.45
(0.0000)(0.0000)
Average After FuelWatch before Coles-0.032.84
(0.0539)(0.1905)

The numbers in parenthesis are p-values from a two-sided t-test for equality of averages.


The analysis in table one is initially consistent with the ACCC analysis.  Simply looking at the before and after FuelWatch averages and the associated t-test p-values, it appears that prices in WA did fall after the introduction of FuelWatch.  The price effect, however, is far stronger after the introduction of Coles.  Finally, I look at the relative price after FuelWatch was introduced but before Coles entered the WA market.  The analysis suggests that prices rose by a statistically significant amount, on average, for P1, but not by a statistically significant amount for P2.

In order to establish the base case, I first estimate equation (3) without the Coles variable.  Results are shown in table two.

Table Two: FuelWatch structural break test for relative prices
(August 1998 – June 2007).

ConstantFuelWatchAdj-R2
P1-0.5107(0.0434)-0.8202(0.0813)0.0375
P22.5931(0.0000)-1.0328(0.0290)0.0675

Numbers in parenthesis are p-values.
Standard errors are Newey-West corrected.
P1 compares average WA prices to all other states,
P2 compares average WA prices to SA, QLD, Vic and NSW.


The results are broadly consistent with the ACCC analysis.  P2 corresponds more closely to the ACCC analysis as it compares the average WA price to the same four eastern states as the ACCC analysis.  P1 compares the average WA price to all the other states.  It is interesting to note that the effect of FuelWatch is much weaker when Tasmania and the Northern Territory are added to the mix.  Indeed, the price reduction is less than 1cpl, and only statistically significant at the 10 percent level.  The P2 analysis, however, has FuelWatch delivering a saving of 1.03 cpl on average, and is statistically significantly different from zero.  The ACCC did not report adjusted R2 measures in their analysis -- but it can be seen that they are very low.

I now include the Coles variable into the analysis.  Results are shown in table three.

Table Three: FuelWatch and Coles structural break test for relative prices
(August 1998 – June 2007).

ConstantFuelWatchColesAdj-R2
P1-0.5107(0.0444)0.4814(0.2422)-2.5382(0.0000)0.4478
P22.5931(0.0000)0.2411(0.5413)-2.4842(0.0000)0.4734

Numbers in parenthesis are p-values.
Standard errors are Newey-West corrected.
P1 compares average WA prices to all other states,
P2 compares average WA prices to SA, QLD, Vic and NSW.


The results are very different from the ACCC analysis.  The dummy variable associated with FuelWatch is now not statistically significant.  The Coles variable is highly statistically significant and indicates that greater competition in the form of Coles entering the market caused the relative price of fuel to fall by about 2.5cpl.  In addition the adjusted R2 are now much higher than before.

In table four I estimate the equation without the FuelWatch variable.

Table Four: Coles structural break test for relative prices
(August 1998 – June 2007).

ConstantColesAdj-R2
P1-0.2376(0.3172)-2.3299(0.0000)0.4404
P22.7299(0.0000)-2.3799(0.0000)0.4752

Numbers in parenthesis are p-values.
Standard errors are Newey-West corrected.
P1 compares average WA prices to all other states,
P2 compares average WA prices to SA, QLD, Vic and NSW.


The impact Coles had on relative prices is now slightly smaller than before at about 2.3cpl, while the adjusted R2 is still very high.  This confirms, to my mind, that the petrol price saving in WA is due to the entry of Coles into the market in 2004 and not the introduction of the FuelWatch scheme in 2001.  The ACCC analysis does not consider this possibility at all and is, at least, fundamentally incomplete and flawed as a consequence.


OTHER CONCERNS.

As one of the ACCC caveats they write, "Different timeframes could conceivably give different results".  That is very true.  The ACCC regression analysis begins in August 1998.  They claim that they cannot go before that date given the price deregulation that had occurred.  That is a plausible argument.  But what happens if they were to begin their analysis using later data?  In table five I show what happens to the FuelWatch term as the starting period moves later.

Table Five: Starting Point Sensitivity Analysis.

FuelWatch
Start DateP1P2
Aug-98-0.69(0.0813)-1.03(0.0290)
Sep-98-0.75(0.0721)-1.05(0.0287)
Oct-98-0.80(0.0816)-1.02(0.0349)
Nov-98-0.84(0.0979)-0.99(0.0414)
Dec-98-0.86(0.1222)-0.94(0.0530)
Jan-99-0.82(0.1570)-0.86(0.0807)

Table shows the β-term from equation (2),
substituting Relative Price for Price Margin,
and the associated Newey-West adjusted p-value.


As can be seen, the benefit of the FuelWatch scheme declines as the starting period changes.  By December 1998, the benefit using the P1 measure is no longer statistically significant, while the P2 measure (the one chosen by the ACCC) benefit remains significant at the 10 percent level of confidence, but is much smaller than before.

I also investigate what would have happened if the FuelWatch scheme had been evaluated at the end of 2003 i.e. before Coles entered the market in March 2004 (and at the same time Woolworths entered the market in December 2003).  Results are shown in table six.  As can be seen the FuelWatch scheme would have been declared to have had no effect at all on relative prices.  While the FuelWatch terms are positive, they are not statistically significantly different from zero.

Table Six: End Point Sensitivity Analysis.

ConstantFuelWatchAdj-R2
P1-0.5107(0.0370)0.5141(0.2028)0.0305
P22.5931(0.0000)0.2680(0.4898)0.0015

Table shows the β2-term from equation (3) and the associated Newey-West adjusted p-value.
Data ends at December 2003.


THE MAY 29 ACCC ANALYSIS.

The ACCC claim to have undertaken an "endogenous selection of structural break points".  Unfortunately, it is not at all clear what this may mean;  the ACCC do not even state which econometric test they have performed.  They purport to show results but do not indicate whether these results are statistically significant.  Without any knowledge of the test being performed or any tests of significance it is impossible to evaluate this effort.

Market should set pay

Suddenly it seems everyone in business and government wants to see a considerable increase in teachers' salaries.  The Business Council of Australia is leading the charge, calling for a doubling of the present top rates of $75,000 a year, which it says will give fresh impetus to growth.  Doubtless a case will be put for financing this from one of the infrastructure funds into which excessive taxation collections are being siphoned.

The premium level of salary is designed to go only to the teachers who have the greatest merit.  This intent represents a triumph of hope over experience.

All public sector increments started out as being merit based but the outcome has been an automatic shift up the scale except for those exhibiting grossly egregious behaviour.

Moreover, the council, in making the case for rewarding excellence, appears to have taken little account of market situations.  There are a great many people involved in skilled and worthy work who don't get the rewards they and others consider they merit.  Think of nurses, sewerage workers and top policy advisers within the public service.

In the case of teachers, one-third of senior schoolchildren are taught in non-government schools that have no wage cap.  If demand for excellent teachers was outstripping supply or if outstanding teachers were demonstrably better than those who are simply superb or just pretty good, this would surely be reflected in private school teachers' salaries.

Yet the available evidence is that non-government school teachers earn little more than those in the public school system.

Though teaching is a valued profession, it has features that offer compensation for salary levels that at the peak are less than 40 per cent above those of the average full-time worker.

Among the offsetting benefits is the risk-free nature of the job:  nobody is in any danger of being laid off.  In addition, it has far more generous leave provisions than any other job.  And for the ambitious there is also considerable scope for advancement within school and education administration.  For these reasons, notwithstanding full employment, there appears to be no lack of new recruits to the profession.  Shortages are confined to maths and science, which can be dealt with selectively.

Teachers are not the only public sector employees with claims to higher salaries.  Similar pressures are always present regarding the salaries of senior public servants.  The most successful business executives earn several times the $500,000 a year the most senior bureaucrats pick up.  However, there are market checks on remuneration for business leaders.  The firm's shareholders have a vested interest in ensuring they do not over-pay since this reduces their profits.  The firm's owners, represented by the board of directors, have to weigh up the benefits of paying more for managerial talent against this loss of their own income.

Such determinations are far less easy to undertake in the case of public servants.  Many point to private sector remuneration levels as evidence that they are underpaid.  This is clearly not the case with teachers, where direct comparisons can be made with private sector employees.

Finding a yardstick against which to measure remuneration claims for senior public servants is not so easy.

If senior public servants had skills similar to captains of industry -- those they measure their claims against -- you would expect to see them offering their services to that better remunerated vocation.

Yet surprisingly few do or at least do so successfully.  Those who leave the public sector and make careers in business with few exceptions are employed in consultancy or government relations roles.  The latter would rarely command stratospheric salaries, while the former are small, not big businesses with very variable remuneration levels.

This suggests a different skill-set between senior public servants and top business managers, with no real correspondence between the two.  It probably also means that we are over-paying senior executives in the public sector because their next best employment opportunities, as revealed by their continuance within the sector many claim to be grossly underpaying them, is another public sector job.

The lack of interaction between senior management in the private and public sectors also means paying senior mandarins more would not have an impact on remuneration of top private sector managers.  By contrast, paying public school teachers more would automatically force up wages in private schools.  This would require increased fees, a bonus for those such as Education Minister Julie Gillard, who makes no bones about her hostility to private education.


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