In the art of war, the first rule is to understand the strengths and weaknesses of the opponent. To miscalculate is to invite defeat. This is the position of the Howard government in relation to the Rudd opposition. At the core is the government's time-warped assessment of Kevin Rudd's workplace relations policies.
The possibility is that Rudd has initiated fundamental change on core Labor values. It's a probabiity the government seems intent on ignoring. To understand the likely development, several trends need to be considered.
Until Rudd assumed leadership, federal Labor was constrained by the irrational Labor Left in the union movement. This still exists but is being brought under control. It's the same internal ALP struggle that has occurred in Victoria. Victoria's union Left destroyed the Cain/ Kirner government. The Bracks/ Brumby team has quietly neutralised much of these elements. Steve Bracks and John Brumby did not undo Kennett's workplace reforms and continued the reform trend, for example their occupational health and safety reforms. Without a state industrial relations commission, Victoria has been the greatest beneficiary of federal workplace reforms in the building sector. Rudd is most closely replicating the Bracks/ Brumby model. The starkest example oddly comes from NSW, which has long been controlled by the disciplined Labor Right. But unlike the Bracks/ Brumby Victoria, the NSW Labor Right institutionalised its control through the instrument of the state industrial elations comminsion. The NSW IRC secures labour movement control because it legalises the corruption of commercial competition principles and practices that would otherwise be illegal under federal competition laws. To do business in NSW requires compliance with these deal-making power arrangements.
Significantly, Rudd does not intend to return the federal IRC to the centre of Labor policy. This sent shockwaves through the NSW labour movement, most clearly expressed by NSW labour academics. The NSW system has always hidden its power structures under a mask of academic and theoretical respectability delivered to it by NSW labour academics. Recently the academics have been vocal in expressing dismay that Rudd's workplace relations policy will not replicate the NSW model. They have accused business of exerting excessive influence over Rudd.
But Rudd seems to be doing something new and unexpected with core ALP values. It appears he has rejected the hard Left and hard Right both at the same time. What then are his policies and values? It's a bit hard to be sure, but a good hint comes from a publication produced by the Catholic church. In June this year an official publication of the Australian Catholic church bishops strongly criticised Work Choices. Workplace Relations: A Catholic Perspective alleged that Work Choices fundamentally destroyed Christian social justice values. It urged Catholics to agitate against the policy, reflecting similar calls from the Uniting and Anglican churches.
The Catholic bishops' position and Rudd's workplace policies have distinct similarities. Rudd's small claims-type process for small business unfair dismissals is contained in the Catholic publication. So is the absence of a return to IRC dominance. Rudd and the Catholics apply similar policies to enforcing collective negotiations, securing a role for unions under law.
Perhaps Rudd's proud public adherence to Christian values is the genuine driver of his policy principles. Maybe he follows the evangelical Christian movement that glorifies business and wealth creation within a Christian framework. If so, there are potential contradictions.
If these observations are close to the truth, they are probably inconvenient for John Howard. Rudd's application of a new framework of core Labor belief does not fit the government's fear campaign based on the union bogyman. If Rudd has opened a new political ground, the Howard government's failure to recognise and study this is probably Rudd's greatest strategic advantage.
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