As opinion polls are consistently indicating a Labor win at the federal election, it's worthwhile contemplating workplace relations under a Rudd government.
Many companies in traditional hotbed industrial relations sectors may be fearing a breakout in union militancy. If Opposition Leader Kevin Rudd is elected, one image is of mad unionists wreaking revenge on businesses that supported the "extreme" laws of the Howard government.
This may happen in some instances but Rudd's announcements last week of his workplace relations policy details provide the opportunity for more considered analysis.
What's clear is that Rudd's policy adopts great quantities of Howard's reforms. Howard has in effect won much of his cultural battle because his reforms have initiated large changes inside the ALP. Howard has shifted the political middle ground and Rudd has gone with it.
A successful Kevin Rudd would have Howard's status quo to help him in the first six months because Work Choices would remain unchanged until the Senate altered in mid-2008. After that, Rudd's agenda would be subservient to the strange politics of an unpredictable Senate. Rudd is unlikely to gain control of the Senate. If he could secure effective Senate approval, it's probable that new legislation would not be operational until early or even mid-2009. New bureaucracy takes time to construct.
These scenarios show that Work Choices could remain effectively operational for even the first two years of a government led by Rudd, who would then be preparing for 2010 election.
If he did move to full implementation of his stated agenda, some things are known and others remain uncertain. Locked in permanently under Rudd are Work Choices' right of entry and pattern bargaining restrictions, bans on secondary boycotts and orders against unlawful industrial action.
Retained for the bulk of a Rudd government's first term and sometimes beyond are the construction sector's reforms including the sector's policeman -- the Australian Building and Construction Commission -- and the building code of practice. Existing Australian workplace agreements (AWAs) are retained for the length of agreements and new AWAs are allowed in workplaces where AWAs now exist. Current unfair dismissal laws would probably remain unchanged for another two years for reasons stated above.
This timetable probably suits Rudd. His greatest threat on winning government would be an immediate implementation of his workplace agenda. If it's accepted that Work Choices has contributed to lowering employment without creating wage pressures on inflation, a dumping of Work Choices will raise the prospect of wages escalation and the Reserve Bank responding with interest rate increases. This could destroy Rudd's election chances in 2010 by proving he was a bad economic manager.
With Work Choices remaining for so long into his first term, Rudd minimises his risk of damaging the economy. The risky changes would happen late in his first term, probably delaying their negative economic impact until after a 2010 election. Rudd's economically destructive policies include laws to force businesses into unwanted collective agreements, the removal of the AWA option and the big one, re-imposing unfair dismissals on small businesses.
It's with these probabilities that businesses have to decide the direction of their approaches to workplace relations. It's a critical moment for chief executives.
The usual orthodoxy among management is to sit tight in the face of changing laws and the possibility of union militancy. This "do nothing" management culture has fostered management accountability avoidance and a refusal to confront negative worker-to-manager communications.
These cultures remain a central cause of underperforming businesses. Some chief executives recognise this but don't know the pathways to resolution. But workplace reform is and always has been, about relationships inside companies. It's about achieving direct, quality relationships between each and every person, at every level. The legislative frameworks that encompass the relationships are secondary to the relationships themselves.
In competitive business environments, it's the quality of relationships in companies that create the competitive edge. If Howard were to retain government, businesses seeking competitive improvement can move forward with certainty on the real workplace agenda of relationship building.
If Rudd wins, there's a possible window of about two years where the relationship objective can be advanced. After that, uncertainty enters the equation.
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