Kevin Rudd reckons the reason for the swing against Labor at the Gippsland byelection was because he has made some "tough decisions". If this is what he actually thinks, then he is deluded.
Maybe the voters of Gippsland spotted something that the rest of Australia missed. Because so far it's hard to tell what are all the "tough decisions" the Government was supposedly punished for. There's nothing too tough about holding a couple of cocktail parties, selecting a woman as the next Governor-General, and hiking up the tax on alcopops. At the moment the most challenging job for Canberra bureaucrats is keeping count of all of the Government inquiries being held.
At his meeting with premiers this week, one of the biggest arguments the Prime Minister faces is whether the Commonwealth or the states will pay for the electrical equipment required to implement his "education revolution".
On the international stage, Rudd promises that he will keep complaining to the Japanese about their whaling, and he has proposed establishing yet another Asian regional association.
Rudd has claimed he's tough on government spending. It's true that some spending has been cut, but means-testing the baby bonus to stop millionaires getting it was also popular. While some Howard-era programs have been cut or abolished, total government spending is still going up. This year, Federal Government expenditure will be at least $10 billion more than last year. Part of that spending includes $100 million for sporting facilities in marginal seats promised by Labor during the election campaign. It's not too tough for an MP to hand over a cheque to the local sporting club.
The Gippsland byelection rebuff and Rudd's easing personal popularity are not the result of anything he has done. It's what Kevin Rudd hasn't done that is the problem. After all his hope, hype, and promises, voters might be getting just a little bit sceptical. The Government can't live off Kevin07 indefinitely. It's now 2008. There are three key things that Rudd hasn't yet done.
First and foremost, he hasn't brought down the cost of groceries, petrol, or mortgages. It's true that Rudd was clever enough to avoid any explicit promises about these things during the election campaign. But he was happy enough to leave the impression with voters that should he become prime minister he would help alleviate the monetary pressures on working families. Now he says his government has done as much as they can for them. To most people this sounds like a feeble excuse.
Second, the Government hasn't revealed what it is going to do to improve the quality of life of indigenous Australians. Kevin Rudd (and the media) made a great deal out of his saying sorry, but since then there has been practically nothing. Labor has done its best to avoid revealing what exactly is its position on the Northern Territory emergency intervention. At the time of the apology there was a unique opportunity to leverage the goodwill of all Australians to make a positive difference to indigenous communities. With every passing month that goodwill dissipates. The Prime Minister (and many others) are fond of talking about climate change as "the greatest moral issue of our time". Instead of worrying about things that may or may not happen in 100 years' time, the Government could focus on what's occurring right here and now in indigenous communities.
The third thing Rudd hasn't done is to tell Australians anything about his emissions trading scheme for greenhouse gases. All we know is that we're going to have one and it is going to start in two years. We don't know how it will work, how much it will cost, and how many jobs will be lost because of it.
When John Hewson tried to introduce a GST he was expected to explain to the Australian public the precise details of the effect of the new tax on the cost of the ingredients of a birthday cake. And in the end the GST was brought in only after John Howard fought the 1998 federal election on the issue.
On any measure, an emissions trading scheme is a much bigger change to the country than was the GST. Howard gave the voters a choice over the GST. Will Kevin Rudd do the same for an emissions trading scheme?
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