He's back! Just when Canberra journalists thought he was forgotten, parliament recommences, the economic debate resumes, Julie Bishop resigns the shadow treasurership, and there he is again, risen from the political grave and haunting the press gallery and the Labor government like Banquo's ghost.
I'm talking, of course, about Peter Costello, who has been everywhere in recent weeks: Alan Jones, Lateline, Neil Mitchell, ABC radio, CNBC Asia, Sky News and doorsteps outside memorial services. Add to this his fortnightly columns in the Fairfax press and two well-received parliamentary speeches on Labor's stimulus package and the late and much lamented Liberal minister Peter Howson, and it is no wonder speculation is running hot that the former treasurer might not only hang around to recontest the next election but become the spectre to haunt Malcolm Turnbull indefinitely. Anyone who claims to know his exact plans is merely guessing. I speak with the Member for Higgins regularly and I have no idea what he will do. But I do know three things about Costello that may provide clues about his intentions.
First, his narrative about the Australian economy, culminating in his strong opposition to Labor's $42 billion stimulus package, has a lot going for it. Start with the stunning statistics that defined his nearly 12-year treasurer-ship from March 1996 to November 2007. Everything that should be up -- wages, economic growth, the stock market -- was up, while everything that should be down -- unemployment, inflation, interest rates -- was down. He made the Reserve Bank independent (something Labor opposed) and in 1997, he created a prudential regulatory authority of the financial system (something which the RBA itself strongly opposed, which both the Americans and British curiously lacked, and which the IMF overwhelmingly praised). Bringing the budget into surplus and eliminating Labor's $96 billion debt, moreover, were obviously achievements. And unlike Bill Clinton, George W. Bush and the US Congress, Costello did not encourage the subprime lending that precipitated this crisis. By any reasoning, there is much to praise and little to criticise in terms of what was actually done on Costello's watch.
Although the global financial circumstances have changed since the election, Labor's economic management compares unfavourably with that of the Howard-Costello years. This is a government that for most of last year championed a tight fiscal and monetary policy to contain some imaginary inflation dragon even as the sluggish global economy was in desperate need of loosening. Yet the dire warning signs were evident in September 2007 when the US subprime mortgage market collapsed. As Costello suggested at the time, the Australian economy needed stimulation to weather itself against the coming "financial tsunami". "Go for Growth", remember, was the Coalition election mantra.
Rudd now sells his spending spree as the only way to protect Australia from the global downturn. But Costello has been the most effective critic of cash hand-outs and giveaways to Labor pet projects instead of tax cuts and investment on economic infrastructure. If the economy fails to recover in 12 months' time, Costello will be able to say: "I told you so".
Second, Costello is the only Liberal with the talent, experience, and parliamentary skills to beat Labor. I say this not just because of his impressive command of economics and record as treasurer, but also because he oozes that indefinable quality of leadership that the Romans called gravitas. As Barry Cohen, the former Labor minister and regular contributor to these pages, says of Costello: "Not only can he be hilariously funny -- an immensely valuable asset when things are tense in parliament -- but he has a great sense of theatre and in full flight can rally the troops from the depths of depression."
He is, moreover, a much more decent person than the press make him out to be. As treasurer, he sometimes gave the impression of being arrogant and a sook. He certainly needs to let go of what many people think are his petulant resentments towards John Howard and prove that he is focused on a leadership future, not dwelling on past duels. And it is true that decency, as Brendan Nelson found out, is a dull blade to take into a knife fight with Kevin Rudd.
Malcolm Turnbull has plenty of strengths, among them his high intelligence and connections in the higher echelons of society. But he needs to dispel the public's sense that he is part of an introverted elite, a born-to-rule clique which has no understanding or feel for the wider electorate -- and reassure his own backbenchers, who are upset with what they see as his lack of consultation and his willingness to bow to Labor on emissions trading and industrial relations. Costello does, however, believe in things that are near and dear to the party faithful.
At a time when the public rates Labor as better economic managers than the Coalition, Costello's record stands as a testament to the good old days. According to Newspoll, Costello was seen as a better economic manager than Wayne Swan by a margin of 53 to 21 on the eve of the 2007 election; yet within six months, Swan was 14 points higher than the then shadow treasurer Turnbull (40-26). What was once seen as a major Coalition strength is now a liability (even without Julie Bishop in the shadow treasury portfolio). That would automatically change if Costello returned to the limelight. As the economy deteriorates, who can better use Ronald Reagan's devastating line in the 1980 debate against Jimmy Carter: "Are you better off today than you were four years ago?"
Third, critics in the government and media have noted the Costello revival. Hardly a Question Time goes by without Kevin Rudd and Wayne Swan taunting Turnbull that the Member for Higgins, with a "lean and hungry look" (Rudd), is "breathing down his neck" (Swan). Yet one can't help but wonder if all of this teasing won't boomerang in the end.
The Age's Tony Wright -- presumably still guilty over his role in the so-called Brissenden affair in which three journalists leaked an off-the-record discussion with Costello -- recently asked one well-connected Liberal whether he had any thoughts about Costello's new visibility. "He held up his hands in mock horror and backed away. But before he scurried off, he winked and whispered, 'Watch this space'." To which Wright replied, "Oh, we will, we will".
Then there's Kerry-Anne Walsh. In her appearance on Sky News's PM Agenda recently, the Sydney Sun Herald columnist and former ABC Labor union staffer, indulged in the press galley's wonderful talent for hypocrisy. Last year when Costello was "doing nothing" on the backbench, she complained he hindered the Liberal party and should just go; this month when he has been speaking out and contributing to policy, she complained, well, he hindered the Liberal party and should just go. Walsh is one of many journalists to write off what she calls the "irrelevant" Costello.
But one of the greatest advantages in politics is to be underestimated. When he launched his bestselling memoirs last September, Costello was dismissed as yesterday's man by the press, yet he keeps hanging around. Don't be surprised if he confounds the experts yet again.
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