Saturday, July 12, 2008

A new single desk for Western Australia?

Submission to the ACCC interested party consultation in relation
to Cooperative Bulk Handling Limited (CBH) exclusive dealing
Notification N93439


1. BACKGROUND TO THIS SUBMISSION

We are pleased to have the opportunity to make a submission to the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission's interested party consultation in relation to the lodgement of Cooperative Bulk Handling Limited (CBH) of an exclusive dealing notification, N93439, hereafter referred to as "Grain Express".

We are supportive of the removal of barriers to competition in the Australian economy and has taken a particular interest in deregulation of wheat export marketing.  We have been an active participant in infrastructure pricing and access debates for some years, and has consistently argued for the regulatory authorities to disengage from fixing price and access conditions except where unchallengeable natural monopoly conditions are evident.  Such an approach is necessary in order to allow the development of the most efficient outcomes.

The proposal by CBH to force wheat growers and grain buyers to use its infrastructure and be subject to its freight pricing regime is contrary to the national interest, will result in poorer returns to grain growers and other market participants, including consumers, and should therefore be rejected.


2. THE CURRENT STRUCTURE OF THE WA GRAINS INDUSTRY

Wheat is the most important crop produced by WA grain growers.  ABARE forecasts WA will produce 8.3m tonnes of wheat in the coming harvest from 5.2 m hectares planted.  Total acreages for all other broadacre crops are forecast to be 2.1 m hectares planted. (1)  Other grains falling within the proposal include barley, canola and lupins.


2.1 WHEAT IS A MAJOR EXPORT EARNER

Australia is the world's second largest wheat exporter.  Major markets include China, Iraq, Indonesia, Japan, Korea and Egypt.  In the last non-drought year, Australian wheat exports earned $3.591 billion.

While drought seriously affected the two most recent seasons, the future for Australian wheat is very attractive with global prices higher than they have been for many years and planned plantings well up on recent years.  If the drought has indeed broken, returns from cropping can be expected to reach record levels over the next few years.

Western Australia is the largest wheat producing state despite having only 18 percent of wheat growers.  The Pastoralists and Graziers Association of WA estimates WA produces "up to 8 to 10 percent of the world's internationally traded wheat." (2)  The WA industry has undergone the largest degree of specialisation and concentration in recent years so that the average wheat-growing farm in WA is now 1½ times larger than in NSW and 2½ times larger than in Victoria.

Figure 1Source:  ABS 7121.0

Figure 2Source:  ABARE (3)

Access Economics estimates 90-95 percent of the Western Australian wheat crop is exported each year compared to a much higher domestic consumption of eastern seaboard wheat.  Because of the lack of domestic demand in WA, at harvest growers there have to date been captive to the single desk price unlike eastern states wheat growers who can choose to sell to the national pool or to a wide variety of domestic buyers.


2.2 GLOBAL DEMAND IS CHANGING

The Grains Research and Development Corporation (GRDC) has repeatedly drawn attention to increasing specialisation in international wheat markets and the need for Australian farmers to move away from producing traditional commodity varieties.  Market research has also highlighted the strengthening North American competition in varieties traditionally dominated by Australia such as Udon noodle wheat.

Increasing competition and changes in demand suggest Australian wheat growers will be best served by increased specialisation and the development of new varieties for niche markets.


2.3 GRAIN GROWING IS INCREASINGLY SPECIALISED AND CONCENTRATED

Over 80 percent of the national wheat crop is produced by the top 25 percent of wheat growers and the proportion grown by the biggest farmers is continuing to increase as Figure 1 shows.  The Productivity Commission estimated only "ten percent of Australian farm businesses now produce over 50 percent of output".

Larger growers can see the benefits from being able to enter into highly vertically integrated contracts with overseas buyers for specialist varieties and from trading their own grain.

Similarly, these growers are already experienced users of financial hedging instruments such as futures, options and swaps.  The opening of the export grain market will reduce the risk of these instruments because Australian prices will trade more transparently in line with global prices allowing Australian growers to minimise basis (4) risk.

Figure 3Source ABARE


2.4 WA GRAIN MARKET CHARACTERISED BY A MONOPOLY INFRASTRUCTURE PROVIDER AND A MONOPOLY EXPORT BUYER

Unlike the Eastern Seaboard, there is a very limited domestic market for Western Australian wheat.  Until recently, the combination of an export monopoly in the form of the single desk and a legislated monopoly for grain receivals meant almost the entire WA wheat crop was handled by CBH and AWB.

For grains other than wheat, the dominance of CBH is even more marked.  The WA Grain Marketing Act 2002, and subsequent guidelines issued by the WA Government to the Grain Licensing Authority (GLA), effectively perpetuates an export marketing monopoly for barley, canola and lupins in WA. (5)  CBH, through its subsidiary Grain Pool Pty Ltd is the monopoly licence holder for these commodities.  The removal of the Commonwealth wheat single desk triggers a review of the WA legislation and it is likely these markets will be deregulated for the 2010 season. (6)


2.5 GRAIN LOGISTICS MOVING AWAY FROM RAIL

A recent study of WA grain infrastructure noted receivals volume growth in recent years has been away from rail sites to road serviced sites and the ports. (7)  As Table 1 shows, of the 545,600 tonne increase in grain freight tonnages over the past decade only 130,300 has travelled by rail.  The same study shows significant differences in the proportion of grain moved by rail:  Albany 53% rail, Geralton 46% rail, Kwinana 91% rail, Esperance 13% rail, for a total of 64% by rail.  "Most road sites are in the coastal and wetter zones.  Consequently production is more reliable at these sites.  Rail served sites are, on average, more distant than road sites and therefore suffer less reliable conditions." (8)

Table 1 Change in receival site types 95-99 to 00-04 (9)

Site typeTonnes 95-99Tonnes 00-04% change
Road1,523,2521,740,90914.3%
Port1,650,8601,848,46912.0%
Rail6,203,4736,333,7872.1%
Totals9,377,5859,923,1655.8%

Various factors are driving the move away from rail.  Road freight is now price competitive with rail from many locations and growers have been choosing to increase deliveries straight to port and bypass the CBH delivery system entirely.  These trends are likely to continue.


3. IMPACT OF THE COMMONWEALTH WHEAT EXPORT MARKETING ACT 2008

The Grain Express proposal is predicated on an effective continuation of the former wheat export marketing arrangements and an incorrect characterisation of the new arrangements that began operation on 1 July 2008.

In their application Grain Express states:

6.14 The key difference between the current and proposed wheat export arrangements is the requirement under the Proposed Act that a company must be accredited by WEA (as the regulator) in order to export bulk wheat.  Accreditation is not required under the current scheme -- the consent of the EWC is all that is necessary at present to export bulk wheat. (10)

The implication is that the new arrangements will be more restrictive than the previous law but not a major change in approach.  However, the above characterisation fails to accurately describe the current export arrangements which have been changed from a veto provision held by AWB to an approval vested with the Minister for Agriculture.  The Wheat Export Marketing Act 2008 achieves a further significant deregulation of wheat export arrangements.

In moving the second reading of the bill, the minister for Agriculture, the Hon. Tony Burke, drew the House's attention to the historic nature of the changes:

Under these changes, for the first time in more than 60 years, Australian wheat growers will be able to choose whom they sell their grain to based on the very best deal they can get.
Today's farmers continue to benefit from the abolition of trade tariffs and the trade liberalisation reforms introduced by the Hawke-Keating Labor governments.
Today's wheat growers also enjoy the benefits offered by the deregulation of the domestic wheat market in 1989.
Tomorrow's farmers stand to benefit from the reforms introduced to the parliament today. (11)

Similarly, the Opposition drew attention to the importance and impact of the bills

Under a deregulated system, new opportunities will be available from the innovation and diversification that will arise.  We believe the time has come to introduce competition and choice into the wheat export market. (12)

3.1 NEW ENTRANTS TO THE EXPORT MARKET

The Commonwealth Wheat Export Marketing Act 2008 came into operation on 1 July 2008.  The Act lifts the previous AWB (13) export monopoly over bulk export of wheat.  The Commonwealth has instituted a licensing regime under which potential exporters need to demonstrate they are a company under Australian law and that they meet various tests of probity and financial capacity.  The result of these changes will be an immediate reduction in the market share of AWB in Australian export wheat and the entry of an expected forty or more licensed exporters, including a number of international grain traders already active in the Australian domestic grain market.  CBH itself announced on 4 July 2008 that it has applied to Wheat Exports Australia (WEA) for accreditation to export bulk wheat for the coming harvest.  The press release notes CBH "has been positioning itself for a reformed wheat marketing environment for many years now and has customers around the world who are ready to buy wheat this year." (14)


3.2 AN END TO THE NATIONAL POOL

Another consequence of the deregulation of export wheat marketing is the dismantling of the national wheat pool.  AWB has confirmed there cannot be a national pool without guaranteed volume therefore without the certainty of the export wheat it will not be operating a national pool.  AWB and other market participants have indicated they will offer limited regional pools in certain commodities. (15)  The end of the national pool has by far the largest impact for growers (and bulk storage handlers) in WA.  In the past, a far larger percentage of the crop has been delivered to the pool in WA than in the Eastern States.  Many growers near Melbourne or Sydney's large domestic flour mills may have never delivered to the national pool whereas it would only be very specialised WA growers servicing the domestic or container export markets that has not used the national pool.

While some grain marketers will operate regional or specialised pools, the closure of the national pool will, necessarily, lead to a greater proportion of grain being traded via a greater variety of contractual mechanisms.  These include cash contracts at harvest, forward contracts, and contracts based on traded financial instruments such as the ASX futures markets.


3.3 CREATION OF A SECONDARY MARKET IN WA

Since 90–95 percent of WA grain is exported, to date overwhelmingly in bulk by AWB, there have been very limited opportunities to develop secondary grain markets in WA as AWB was effectively the only final buyer.  With the deregulation of bulk export new market opportunities will arise for grain traders to transact amongst themselves.  The Grain Express proposal appears not to account for this possibility.

The benefits of the development of such a market include greater depth of individual varietal markets and lower transaction costs, as buyers will specialise at up country receivals sites and then trade in the secondary market to fulfil their export books.  In addition, the creation of a deep secondary market in Australia's largest wheat producing state is likely to have important positive implications for the liquidity of wheat based financial products such as the ASX wheat futures contracts.


3.4 CBH REQUIRED TO MAKE ACCESS UNDERTAKINGS TO THE ACCC

The dismantling of the single desk provides the grain port infrastructure providers (CBH, Graincorp and ABB) with an opportunity to export wheat on their own account.  As noted above, CBH has already moved to take advantage of the new accreditation procedures.

The Commonwealth Government has recognised these infrastructure owners will have the potential to exert market power as a result of the monopoly ownership of port facilities.  As a result, the Wheat Export Marketing Act 2008 (16) requires these organisations to enter into access undertakings under Division 6 of Part IIIA of the Trade Practices Act 1974 or to obtain a decision under Division 2A of Part IIIA of the Trade Practices Act that a State based access regime is acceptable.

During the review process for the Wheat Export Marketing Act 2008 many submission expressed considerable unease that the intent of the Act, to open up export wheat markets, would by stymied by the infrastructure owners prioritising their own shipments or by setting discriminatory access charges.

Aside from consideration about whether growers and Australia generally is best served by establishing a new grain monopoly in WA, CBH is acting precipitously by seeking to establish the Grain Express model, which entrenches a supply chain monopoly, before dealing with the port access issues as required by the Act.


4. ISSUES CONCERNING THE STRUCTURE OF INDUSTRIES

4.1 THE THEORY OF THE FIRM

It is now universally agreed that the best outcomes emerge from freely contested markets, where there are many suppliers and many customers and the suppliers are profit maximising firms not subject to political direction.  ACCC Chairman Graham Samuel put this case when he argued,

"Competitive markets usually deliver good outcomes because they act to align the interests of consumers and suppliers.  In seeking to maximise profits, suppliers have strong financial incentives to produce at the lowest cost, to provide the mix and quality of goods and services required by consumers and to innovate in order to achieve a competitive edge.  Provided that certain threshold conditions, such as secure and enforceable property rights exist, competitive markets work by themselves." (17)

Within the context of competitive markets, there are powerful incentives for internalising activities within the firm.  Integration in this way creates a monopoly whereby the firm's component parts act in unison vis-à-vis customers and suppliers.  Barnard (18) stressed the importance of a coordinated administration with deep knowledge in a "conscious, deliberate and purposeful" way.  This allows adaptation without lengthy negotiation.

Coase in the Theory of the Firm (19) saw transaction costs as the key to why most integration takes place.  Unlike with bilateral binding contracts, the firm becomes its own court -- it contracts within itself allocating overheads and determining accounting practices and changing conditions without recourse to a third party.  Vertical integration becomes a way of relieving bargaining where there is a bilateral monopoly -- in that case the division of profits is indeterminate. (20)

As Coase identified, bargaining is not costless but vertical integration can lead to inflexibilities in capital and labour usage and may sacrifice the individual's entrepreneurial motivations.  Where tasks are known with considerable certainty and contracts are therefore easily transmitted and recorded, vertically integrated firms are not usually the best vehicle for production.  Where contracts are easily monitored, as in the house building industry, having independent contractors ensures a very high degree of motivation.  Repeat contracts and the need to ensure a good name are important adjuncts to the efficiency of such arrangements.

The issue of vertical integration is a long-standing one of management decisions about "make or buy".  In a great many industries, vast factories once maintained an in-house production system to allowed good coordination of quality and stocks.  This factory system was at the heart of the industrial revolution but, over time, production systems have been radically transformed and factories now concentrate on final assembly of parts and components that are sourced from a considerable number of sub-contractors, many of which are competing with each other and some also source supplies to rival concerns of the main contractor.  Sub-contacting in this way is the successor to the previously vertically integrated businesses in manufacturing of cars, clothing, whitegoods and other products and has led to the just-in-time models developed by US businesses and further perfected as kanban in Japan.  However, subcontracting requires far greater coordination.

Models based on voluntary sub-contracting are also the essence of the business success of supermarket chains with Wal-Mart leading the way.  The models depend on firms freely contracting with each other and developing mutual trust.  Innovation and cost saving is created by the lack of constraint on how the supplier and purchaser mutually arrange the transport and delivery.

Other types of production, especially where a process is concerned, leave too many risks in having people independently contracting rather than under a management system.  In some industry structures, such advantages were seen to be crucial by the Infrastructure Task Force, which noted, (21)

"The difficulties associated with physical coordination of complementary investments are, however, greatly complicated by disputes over the division of the gains from those investments.  Historically, vertical integration between infrastructure providers and the activities that most rely on their services has been a way of avoiding these complications.  In some cases, this has taken the form of direct ownership of infrastructure assets by their sole or major user;  in others, ownership has been through what amounts to buyers' joint ventures.  But where vertical integration is impossible, or for wider policy reasons judged undesirable, coordination issues -- be it for complementary or for substitutive investments -- are likely to arise.  Difficulties in organising all the parties required for complementary investments to occur, and in securing agreement as to the sharing of the costs of needed capacity expansion, can paralyse the capacity expansion process -- perpetuating bottlenecks that all parties would be better off resolving."

As the above passage makes clear, vertical integration is often a more efficient means of arranging production and the major iron ore producers clearly are of that view as regards their operations in the Pilbara.  In such industries, the integration develops spontaneously and without compulsion.  It resembles the pattern which occurs in an assembly plant with its interlinked series of operations often, conducted on a moving conveyor belt.  Indeed, with regard to the Pilbara iron ore operations, in Robe River (1998) Kenny J., of the Federal Court, determined that access sought by North's to a rail line owned by Rio was not justified because the rail facility was akin to an integrated manufacturing facility which is specifically excluded from coverage of Part IIIA of the Trade Practices Act.  This ruling remains pertinent although in BHP Billiton Iron Ore v NCC (2006) Middleton J considered this to be incorrect and ruled that access to the railway is not "use of a production process" but it is a transport or conveyance service and cannot fall within the production process exception.

This Middleton interpretation best describes the typical situation where the transport function is divorced from other elements of production because the skills and risks involved are not those of the upstream and downstream businesses.  This can be observed with electricity supply -- although the vertically integrated state businesses were disaggregated by government decision, most privatised Australian electricity businesses have voluntarily further disaggregated their distribution businesses in recognition of this.  Most other businesses contract with specialised transport firms rather than provide the services in-house.

At issue in this regard is the question whether the grains industry most closely resembles a manufacturing process, as Kenny J ruled was the case with the Pilbara iron ore mining and transport;  or whether it is a more common situation whereby producers are best making their own transport arrangements or arranging for their buyer to do so with the transport system adapting to undertake the task efficiently.  In the former case an issue to be considered is why the various parties were not drive by the pursuit of better profits to set up in an integrated way without the intercession of government agencies to require this.


4.2 MONOPOLY AND ITS ECONOMIC DISADVANTAGES

4.2.1 Market Dynamics

Networks within which grain growing and marketing functions are integrated under tight co-ownership arrangements have not evolved.  Where forms of such arrangements are in place, as with primary industry producer boards, this is because of government requirements or at least because of government support.  Government compulsion of producers to use a common marketing arm has now been removed in Australia.  This recognises that forcing independent businesses to use a monopoly supply system is no more cost minimising in agricultural industries than it is with other industries.

Transport and inventory management is often the key element in a firm's success.  In the World is Flat, (22) Thomas Friedman describes how the world's most successful retailer, Wal-Mart, has reached its current position by developing a distribution network that ensures timely delivery of goods from all over the world to all of its thousands of stores at the best prices.  The kernel of its success is the management of its distribution chain.  Similarly, the world's major grain marketers have achieved their success by concentrating on:

  • seeking out customer needs in terms of different quality facets and their price/availability tradeoffs;
  • assembling the appropriate supply packages from growers;
  • arranging transport storage and final delivery to meet the needs of the customer.

Wheat, like other grains is not and cannot be a homogenous product which a single firm might be able to supply the market more profitably than competing firms.  A single monopoly integrated supplier would be most unlikely to be able to obtain and process all the changing information that comprises the market and its supply.  Evidence in support of not forcing the creation of a monopoly on efficiency enhancing grounds is that such a business does not appear to have evolved (without government compulsion) anywhere in the world.

Forcing the supply through a single entity would deny the market the alternative providers and the specialise knowledge they can obtain.  It would leave growers who consider their product would be better marketed in ways that would improve their profitability no means of testing this.  It would, in leaving no independent scope for suppliers and marketers to experiment with new product categories, reduce the scope for innovation in better meeting market needs and thereby, over time, reduce the industry's productivity.

Markets are in a continual process of development and change and the creation of barriers to that change causing considerable harm in preventing adjustment and innovation.  Schumpeter famously referred to the "gales of creative destruction" which he considered to be of such great importance to economic growth and well-being as to dwarf the worth of the incremental gains in productivity seen in stable business situations.

For these reasons, the notion that national benefits can be gained by constraining the number of suppliers in a particular industry is not one that finds favour with any branch of economics.

Although there are often considerable economies of scale the importance of these is often overstated.  It might for example be claimed that transport, stocking, and managerial economies would accrue if only one supermarket chain were to be permitted.  The vast array of goods, perhaps 30,000, on the supermarket shelves, their infinite variety of sources, availabilities and sizes present a tempting offer for mandating a single supplier.  Yet it is the competitive jockeying (an activity that the ACCC has suggested may be deficient in Australia) that has created the cost savings and customer orientation that mark out privately owned and rivalrous supermarkets as delivering the products consumers want;  and where such outcomes are less than optimal, it is largely because government regulatory bodies limit access of new providers into the market.

Rather than constraining possible new suppliers to ensure a monopoly is created or preserved, competition authorities have been focused on the gains from competition and the dangers of a dominant firm exercising market power.  Rightly or wrongly, competition authorities across the world have been anxious to ensure that dominant firms do not use the market power they are said to enjoy to exclude new competitive offerings.  Microsoft and possibly Google and at one time IBM are firms that have achieved market dominance because of their skills in meeting market needs.  Competition authorities have often sought to restrain what they see as abuse of market power being exercised by those firms.

In Australia and elsewhere, competition, its promotion and removal of barriers to it is now enthroned as the key industry policy to the promotion of efficient outcomes.  Though always a dominant feature of the Trade Practices Act, this was invigorated as a policy approach by the competition reforms of the 1990s.  The touchstone for these was Hilmer Report. (23)

The Hilmer Report and its subsequent acceptance by Australian Governments represented a decisive shift in policy perspectives.  Prior to its recommendations being adopted, often a claim was made that legislated monopoly was necessary to avoid "destructive" or "wasteful" competition.  There have been suggestions, in this respect, that with the lifting of some regulatory controls a subsequent parallel roll-out of Optus and Telstra cable was an instance of such wasteful competition.  This is unlikely in a competitive market characterised by profit-maximising behaviour where firms will cooperate with competitors to share facilities of component production when these require economies of scale that the firms cannot individually reach.  Examples of this cooperation are to be found in petrol retailing where the majors share storage facilities and in component manufacturing in the motor industry where assemblers sometimes source form rivals.

In any event the adoption of competition policy principles was an acceptance that if private sector businesses did not always undertake investments and policy choices that were, especially in hindsight, sub-optimal, government and government supported monopolies tended to be far worse.  Though not necessarily promoting privatisation, the principles adopted then, which remain in place today, were that far from protecting monopoly practices governments committed themselves to dismantling them whenever possible.

Such a position prevailed even in areas where "natural monopoly" appeared inevitable -- thus, the electricity transmission system is deemed to be contestable (and two incursions into the monopoly have been made though they failed to prosper).  Natural monopoly is discussed in Section 5.3.

There have been examples in the past where products were required to use a particular mode in their transport.  This was the case with coal briquettes in Victoria, which prior to the early 1990s reforms were obliged to use rail transport which was inefficient and in many cases inappropriate.  The requirement was in place to support the business of the Victorian railway system -- as with the CBH proposal under the supposition that forcing firms to use rail would assist that mode in maintaining economies of scale and scope thereby bringing wider benefits

Such protection of rail from road competition has been a frequent occurrence.  Indeed in 1988, Trebeck reported, "road transport is restricted by legislation granting rights to rail within a State or region;  by practices, such as in South Australia, where additional charges can be levied on road transport of grain;  by road receivals facilities at some port terminals being non-existent". (24)  Other measures favouring rail were removed as a result of a dual assault by an unlikely alliance of the High Court and a blockade of the Hume Highway in the 1970s led by a truckie who went by the colourful name of "Greendog" Stevens.

The widespread use of a facility brings benefits that augment those accruing to early users.  A telephone network, for example, is more useful the wider the number of connections.  Recognition of this led network businesses to seek (and in the main gain) exclusivity and protection from rivals.  It was thought that a rival network would lead to duplication of facilities and erode the economies of scale and scope that were present with a single network.  However, there is no example anywhere in the world where access economies have been retained by forbidding competition.  Barriers to entry in the provision of goods and services epitomise high cost and reduced competitiveness

4.2.2 Static Production Considerations

Monopoly is considered to bring about higher costs to consumers for other reasons.  Conventionally, monopoly is opposed because it enables the monopolist to constrain supply below costs so as to take advantage of a downward sloping demand curve that is generally evident in major product classes.  This brings a social loss as illustrated by the following standard depiction of a monopoly.

Figure 4

Price in a stylised competitive market as depicted in Figure 4 would be at P3 and quantity at Q3 which is where marginal revenue intersects marginal cost.  Such a market would be unstable as suppliers would be unable to cover their fixed costs and longer-term price and quantity are likely to move to P2 and Q2 where average costs and demand intersect.  But in a monopoly situation the firm is able to constrain production and raise price without rivals being attracted to the consequent profitable opportunity and would do so to the point where marginal revenue and marginal cost intersect which gives a price of P1 and a quantity of Q1.

In the diagram, the firm earns a "super" or "rental" profit as shown by the shaded area.  There is a welfare loss which would be the triangle bounded by

  • the horizontal line from P2 to the average cost curve;
  • the vertical line from Q1 to the demand curve;  and
  • the demand curve.

4.3 NATURAL MONOPOLY

4.3.1 The Notion of Natural Monopoly

Natural monopoly is one area where in principle government agencies can legitimately intervene to bring about a more efficient outcome than that which would prevail in Figure 4.  Natural monopoly is where only one provider is ever likely to be viable.  Viscusi, Vernon and Harrington describe natural monopoly as existing "if the production cost of a particular firm minimises cost." (25)  Often this is associated with economies of scale.

Natural monopolies are often considered to be public goods that are made available to all at a fixed price or freely.  But there is no immutability about a particular good or service being regarded as a natural monopoly.  In the first Australian edition of Samuelson's Economics in 1970, (26) examples of public goods (which he termed "social goods") involving a natural monopoly supplier to a city were cited as being, "water mains, gas pipes, electricity wires, telephone cables, train tracks and postal services".  It is notable that not all of these -- certainly not all aspects of them -- would now be considered natural monopolies and be subject to regulation.

This and similar experiences overseas has led many to argue that natural monopoly is only possible with government protection.  Indeed, in the pre-Hilmer days in Australia the only such businesses were either protected by government from competitors (e.g. AGL's gas monopoly in NSW) or were in fact government institutions with no provision to permit competing providers.

4.3.2 Addressing the Adverse Effects of Natural Monopoly

The CBH proposal appears to be intent on creating or maintaining a simulated natural monopoly.  Its proposal distinguishes itself from other situations where a genuine natural monopoly is considered to be an unfortunate occurrence requiring a government agency to intercede to ensure it does not exploit its market power.

Aside from galvanising informed opinion about the merits of competition, Hilmer was fundamentally about removing the previous, largely government owned, monopoly positions that other businesses were forbidden to contest.  The government businesses controlling the bottlenecks were encouraged to favour their up-stream and down-stream affiliates (sometimes all parts of the supply system were reserved for the monopolist).  Following the Hilmer report, Australian Governments accepted their policy of creating monopolies, especially government owned monopolies, had led to poor productivity levels.  The solution was to smash these long-standing monopolies and allow organic change in the structure of their service delivery, possibly leading to re-integration should that be the most efficient outcome.  The Productivity Commission has documented the effects of the "competition reforms" of which such measures formed a part and estimated them to have been crucial to the development of the economic gains Australia has experienced over the past two decades (the PC's report, Microeconomic Reforms and Australian Productivity:  Exploring the Links is discussed later).

Where facilities or businesses grew to be regarded as having some monopoly features because they crowded out rivals, this was sometimes because the owners spotted an opportunity and became a successful "first mover";  sometimes it was through forms of innovation management.  In the main, whether or not they were "first movers" the facilities achieved their essential nature by virtue of their owners providing a service that proved more attractive than alternatives.  In the past twenty years, we have seen Microsoft and eBay do this but though they may seem impregnable to competition, they can retain their dominance only by constant innovation and cost-cutting.

The classic cases of dominance due to government licensing and exclusion of competition occurred with the mail system (though its monopoly is now trivial since it would have less than a one per cent share of the market for messages).  Electricity lines too were generally vested as monopolies and even now where those rights have formally been abolished (as in Australia) the incumbent facilities' strengths and the difficulties rival facilities have in funding an investment means sustained breeches of the monopoly have not been made.

At a time in Australia when monopolies had legal protection from competition, price gouging (usually in the form of operational inefficiency) by the monopolist was likely, indeed was pervasive.  Because rival facilities are no longer forbidden, non-regulatory price disciplines on existing facilities are in place.  In fact, with access now mandatory and its terms subject to regulatory rulings, the price set by the regulator is often claimed to be too low.

This potentiality is among the reasons why even regulatory agencies say they are most reluctant to embark upon the detailed analysis (with its uncertain success) necessary to replicate the market disciplines that are present with genuine competition.  Disadvantages of regulation designed to offset the economic harm that can occur with a monopoly are fivefold:

  • First, the regulated firm is not incentivised to innovate.  Indeed, unless given a guaranteed return, out of fear of regulatory expropriation the firm will avoid all but defensive capital investment.
  • Secondly, the low price will leave access seekers with no incentive to build new facilities for themselves.  Competition, except in the form of re-sale of the regulated facility, will thereby be constrained.
  • Thirdly, the availability of a recourse to government to fortify one side's commercial negotiations leads to strategic business approaches which deflect firms from a customer focus.
  • Related to this, the regulatory procedure for fixing prices is necessarily highly procedural and time consuming and can paralyse commercial decision making;  while this can sometimes be to the advantage of the applicant which can thereby delay decision taking by a rival, it is to the disadvantage of the economy as a whole.
  • Finally, the procedural nature of the regulation involves government and private legal and administrative resources that represent serious costs.

Regulatory control is a necessary corollary of natural monopoly but can lead to decision paralysis.  The issue before us is the wish to create a contrived natural monopoly by forcing all the suppliers to use a common transport and storage system.  To accommodate this, the checks that competition brings to prevent abuse have to be synthesised by the regulator -- a process that no regulator considers to be as effective as the real disciplines on exploitation and inefficiency that is provided by genuine alternative market providers.


5. THE PROPOSAL IN THE CONTEXT OF AUSTRALIA'S COMPETITION POLICY

The CBH proposal breaks new ground in terms of the policy requirements in two directions.  First, it proposes that suppliers should only use the services of CBH in the supply chain and secondly that they only use the transport services nominated by CBH.

There have been several competition policy matters that have been addressed by the NCC and the ACCC covering issues related to those in the CBH application.  Mostly, these competition authorities and the Productivity Commission are rightly highly sceptical of claims that constraining competition will bring about "access economies".  We have certainly seen seemingly impregnable monopolies like General Motors and IBM replaced as a result of competition even though their market positions gave great advantages against usurpers.

In the case of rail facilities, this demand constriction and super profit level of earnings would come about by a diminished service level (less frequent trains, closing some lines and facilities and so on).  A regulatory agency would need to ensure that the monopolist performed in a manner that is consistent with what would be expected in a rivalrous supply situation.

This is a task of considerable difficulty.  As the Productivity Commission noted in Microeconomic Reforms and Australian Productivity:  Exploring the Links (27) the monopoly rail service in NSW was highly inefficient as a result of the monopoly powers it had been granted.  The PC noted that the increase in the economy's productivity observable from the late 1980s had been due to factors that included "reforms (to) remove those regulatory barriers that unnecessarily prevent firms from making productivityenhancing adjustments to products and production processes".  In singling out the NSW rail industry the PC stressed the importance of competition in forcing productivity gains.

In its review of national competition policy the PC said "NCP is based on an explicit recognition that competitive markets will generally serve the interests of consumers and the wider community, by providing strong incentives for suppliers to operate efficiently and be price competitive and innovative. (28)  It reduces the onus of proof recognising that open access is likely to offer cost savings and other efficiencies by subjecting incumbents to the continual test of alternative suppliers.  As the PC put it "in the case of NCP, governments endorsed the approach proposed by Hilmer (1993, p. 190) and reversed the onus of proof on the grounds that theory and evidence strongly suggest that removing restrictions on competition will typically be in the public interest." (29)

Indeed, the PC in seeking further reform of rail freight did not even contemplate this encompassing restraint of competition for the mode.  Instead, the PC argued,

"Taking account of reforms to date by the Australian Transport Council and individual jurisdictions, this review should map out what is required to:
  • achieve competitive neutrality across all transport modes;
  • address barriers to competition and efficiency in individual modes;  and
  • enhance interfaces between modes.

There is a widely accepted view that monopolies can only exist -- or persist for any length of time -– if they have government support restraining rivals.  This view, often attributed to Demsetz, (30) but actually goes back to Adam Smith.  The proposal by CBH seeks government barriers against competitors on the basis that this will allow economies of scale, and scope that will offer benefits to the community in general.  Such claims about the merits of exclusive rights were the basis for the granting of all monopolies –- and Adam Smith was an early agitator against them. (31)


5.1 AUTHORISATION

These matters were addressed in the Review of the Trade Practices Act Chaired by Sir Daryl Dawson and published in 2003. (32)  The report noted that some collective agreements have been dismantled in response the National Competition Policy.  It examined the per se provisions (s 47(6, 7) that prohibit exclusive dealing and third line forcing.  It argued that there should be some relaxation of the per se provisions governing third line forcing.  It accepted that third line forcing could be beneficial to the consumer where it allows two or more products to be sold in combination because it allows cost sharing.

However the Review made it clear that, "Third line forcing is anti-competitive where corporations are able to exploit their market power … perhaps facilitating anti-competitive price discrimination or barriers to entry".  Noteworthy is the fact that this Review (like the PC analysis) did not even contemplate the possibility that there would ever be a claim for the "full line forcing" like that being sought.

This is hardly surprising, since as already discussed, the nexus of the Competition Reform program embarked upon by governments from the early 1990s was competitive neutrality.  Importantly this involved preventing areas of business being reserved for particular suppliers and where monopoly was natural, ensuring that the provision of the services was on cost reflective and efficient terms.  Reserving an area of business for a particular firm or preventing rivals from challenging for specific parts of a business is inimical to competition policy as it is stated and largely practiced throughout Australia and the rest of the world.  Indeed, the activities of competition policy agencies like the ACCC are geared towards preventing such activities and trade monopolies from arising or, if they arise, examining ways that they can be freed up.


5.2 FULL LINE FORCING AND THE CBH APPLICATION FOR AUTHORISATION

CBH seeks to characterise its application as one of "full line forcing".  This is different from third line forcing, where the Dawson report called for relaxations of the per se provisions.

Full line forcing is a voluntary agreement between firms at different stages of the production cycle.  It is at the heart of franchising operations and of "voluntary chains", like the Independent Grocers of Australia where tight and binding commitments are made in a common interest.  Importantly, these agreements are entered into voluntarily.  In the examples of this that are present in the economy none entail the coalition of firms or the central agency recruiting the power of the state to create a compulsory arrangement.  A business is never obliged to commit to using the bundled product by dint of the government forbidding others from offering an alternative.

Arguably, such an approach is being contemplated by the ACCC for the broadband network by the Optus led G9 group of businesses which is seeking approval to build a new network on condition that no rival may overbuild it.  The ACCC has not agreed to the proposal.  Even if it did, the Special Access Undertaking that it would entail is different from that being promoted by CBH since it would be offered as part of a package which entails considerable investment in a facility that, the G9 argues, would not be undertaken to the extent proposed without such support.

CBH claims that the network benefits it provides are considerable and that these would be undermined if competition were to be permitted.  It argues that suppliers would cherry pick or perhaps choose an alternative transportation that they mistakenly believe to be superior to the incumbent system.

Such claims must be tested.  It seems remarkable that wheat in Western Australia has production and marketing characteristics that make it different from every other commodity that is produced and traded.  CBH:

  • points to volatility
    • but this is common in agricultural products;
  • argues that it is uniquely placed to ensure appropriate product varieties emerge
    • but the varieties in "homogeneous" products like wheat are often considerable and these standard variety categories emerge from the demands of the consumer interplaying with those of producers and transport systems;
  • suggests that it must be the central point to minimise shipping costs,
    • yet in no other industry is that required, still less permitted;
  • argues that the logistics of opening storages and applying fumigants make it necessary to have a monopoly operating system,
    • a public schedule of openings would achieve this;
  • repeats the discredited case for reserving business for rail that dogged the Australian transport network until the 1970s and in some cases up to the 1990s, namely that economies of scale require road to be banned and traffic to be funnelled onto rail.

5.3 RING FENCING

There are frequently legitimate concerns about affiliated companies being ring fenced to ensure some parts of them so not divulge commercial-in-confidence material to other parts that might obtain benefit from such knowledge.

With profit maximising firms operating in competitive markets, such concerns have proven to be groundless.  In the motor vehicle industry, for example, many subsidiaries of major vehicle assemblers also produce parts which are sold to both their parent companies and to competitors.  The market itself provides disciplines to prevent information leaking across the ring fence since a component producer allowing this to happen would be adversely affected in terms of reputation.  Unaffiliated firms would stop doing business with the subsidiary.

These same conditions have been observed in the electricity industry.  At the time of corporatisation and privatisation, the electricity retailers were considered to have little value since they had few assets.  They were amalgamated with ring fences with the host distributor in the area where their customers lay.  Firms recognised that retailing and distribution were entirely different businesses and the retailers were split for the most part into different corporate entities.  Retailers and generators have tended to form closer alliances with cross investments.  This represents a need to develop a profile for risk reduction.  The retail entities with generation affiliates are operated in a strict ring fenced manner from their affiliated generators because of the need for the retail arm (and the generation arm) to ensure it is able to deal with all potential customers without the customers being wary of compromising confidential information.

These developments have occurred because of the rivalrous nature of the businesses.  Were one firm to have a monopoly of one stage in the production chain, there would be fewer automatic business disciplines to ensure that the ring fence was complete.


6. THE PROPOSAL IN THE CONTEXT OF GRAIN LOGISTICS IN OTHER AUSTRALIAN MARKETS

Although all of Australia has, until now, been constrained by the single desk monopoly in wheat marketing, the greater depth of domestic markets for wheat and other grains in Eastern seaboard states has resulted in them already experiencing the multiple buyers and sellers of grain that WA is now open to.  In NSW and Victoria the interaction of millers, feed lot operators, extractors as well as domestic and export traders results in thousands of participants in the overall grain supply exercise.  The level of complexity faced by the NSW and Victorian industries is very unlikely to be reached in WA because in WA most grain will end up at port, whereas on the eastern seaboard a significant proportion is intra and inter-state freight.

Other States have developed operational procedures to account for the complexity claimed in the CBH proposal and provide some indication of the sorts of solutions to logistical complexity claimed by CBH.  In no case has the lack of the sort of restrictive practices sought by CBH been necessary to run the Eastern States grain logistics operations.

In the submission by CBH, including the report by Synergies Economics, a number of specific claims are made in support of their claim for approval of Grain Express.  Many of these claims arise purely from the historical choices CBH has made as a monopolist or from the unique position of AWB as the buyer of over 90 percent of the historical crop and are of an administrative or procedural nature.  In addition, there are current procedures undertaken by CBH not in accordance with their State based legislation which CBH are now seeking to rely on in their application.


6.1 PRE-HARVEST INFORMATION COLLECTION

The Bulk Handling Act Regulations 1967, Section 11.(1) requires growers to inform CBH of crop estimate data before being permitted to deliver any grain.  CBH claims "important information exchanges occur at the production stage, which influence the rest of the grain supply chain". (33)  However, growers contacted by the IPA assert this information is rarely collected before harvest so has limited planning utility, and even at harvest there is substantial local discretion as to when these forms are lodged with a substantial minority lodged at the end of deliveries.  The value of any pre-harvest data must therefore be regarded as questionable. (34)


6.2 DELIVERIES TO CBH AT HARVEST

For all grain growing, the harvest period is intensive and concentrated, with virtually all grain harvested in a ten week period.  In many respects this is the most difficult and complex part of the grain logistics exercise because there is an external constraint (the weather) on its achievement.  There will be no change to this task under Grain Express.  Approximately 5,300 individual growers will still strip their crops according to their preferred harvesting schedule, carters (either the growers themselves or their agents) will truck the grain to the storage facility where the trucks will line up, sometimes for hours, to be weighed, the grain tested, the individual load tests printed out on a receipt and then emptied onto a bunker based on its grade.

There is no suggestion within the Grain Express model that growers will be required to adhere to a harvest and delivery schedule or only hire specified carters.  Yet it is at this point of the whole logistics operation where there is the greatest number of participants:  5,300 growers, (35) in the order of 4,000 truck drivers, 193 individual storage sites, (36) and a growing number of buyers.  It is incongruous that CBH appears confident of operating this part of the logistics task in the most efficient manner but requires ACCC protection once the grain is in the storages and has the entire year to be moved, to perhaps 50 buyers.

CBH has identified a current bottleneck in the site receivals process, namely the current operational requirement for the truck driver to nominate the buyer of the grain on a Carter's Delivery Form (CDF) upon delivery to the storage facility.  CBH claims 30% of all loads delivered to storage facilities had errors on the CDF.  CBH plans to fix this problem by allowing growers 21 days grace before they have to either nominate a buyer or start paying warehousing charges and to make the nomination electronically.  CBH claims the current arrangements are required under Section 37 (1) of the Bulk Handling Act 1976 which requires CBH to issue a warrant to the buyer in respect of all grain received.  However, the Act does not specify a period for this to occur instead saying "as soon as practicable after being so required by the grower." (37)  Furthermore, the Grain Express proposal notes some 50 percent of all deliveries are not covered by a CDF but does not explain why this is the case if there is a legislative requirement for nomination on receivals.

The ACCC should be aware that the requirement to nominate a buyer on delivery is unique to WA.  Furthermore, the proposed "fix" is below standard practice on the east coast.  For example growers delivering to Graincorp's Victorian storages have 31 days past the end of the week of delivery to nominate a buyer before warehousing charges are payable.  Similarly, all nominations are processed electronically through Graincorp's "Grain Transact" (38) site at no cost to the grower.


6.3 GRAINS AIN'T GRAINS

In its application CBH notes it currently segregates wheat into a number of grades, e.g. ASW or AH, at individual storage sites. (39)  Current practice is to co-mingle all grains of the same specification within each location's storage facilities.  This means that a buyer of, say, 300 tonnes of noodle wheat from a Katanning grower will get noodle wheat from Katanning but that 300 tones could come from many Katanning growers' farms rather than the specific farm of the seller on the contract.

The Bulk Handling Act and Bulk Handling Act Regulations specify that buyers be only entitled to receive grain at least equal to the grade specified on the warrant of sale.  Growers, CBH and buyers have to date interpreted those provisions as requiring CBH to deliver wheat from the same storage or silo the grower entering into the contract delivered. (40)

Under Grain Express, buyers will no longer be able to receive wheat from a specific location.  While the buyer will still be entitled to grain that meets the specifications in the standard, the grain could come from anywhere in WA.  CBH claims a major part of any efficiency gains of Grain Express will come from its ability to aggregate grain of the same specification into larger parcels for transport and storage at port.

However, while standard grain specifications measure some attributes (e.g. moisture, protein and screenings) they do not capture all the differences between loads of wheat.  For example, two parcels of wheat may both test as meeting ASW standards yet will exhibit different "bakeability" characteristics.  These characteristics are often geographically based and come from the specific growing conditions experienced by the wheat that season.  It is common on the East Coast, where more wheat sells to the domestic market, for individual growers to mail samples of wheat to prospective buyers to be test baked before being offered a price.  The premium above the standard grade price will depend on the ability of the grower (or grain trader) to identify a buyer wanting those particular characteristics, a highly information dependent process.  With the opening of the WA market to export competition, the opportunity now arises for grain growers and buyers to seek out valuable regional differences in grains that are not captured by the specifications.  Grain Express will make such a development impossible.

The Grain Express proposal notes the existence of different characteristics within grades but takes a peculiarly anti-competitive stance in accusing marketers of seeking "to "mine" co-mingled stacks in order to obtain a greater share of high quality grain than the Marketer has paid for." (41)  This is indicative of a major deficiency of the proposal.  Arrangements do develop that provide adequate assurances to all parties about quality characteristics of produce that allow contracts on the basis of standardised goods that may be sourced through swap systems from suppliers other than those making the original contract.  However, the standard thus arrived at are developed by the mutual interaction of buyers and sellers.  The appropriate standards are unlikely to be static and can only be developed through the freedom of growers and marketers to contract one with the other without the standards being dictated by another party.  Indeed, the superfluous costs and inefficiencies created by parties trying to "mine" co-mingled stacks emanate from the arbitrary establishment of standards not fully reflective of market needs.


6.4 SUPPLY CHAIN COSTS TRANSPARENCY

The Grain Express proposal claims:

2.95 Transparency of Supply Chain costs is a real issue in the Western Australian Supply Chain because, in the case of AWBS, service fees (including transport) are deducted in an aggregated fashion and the fees for particular movements are not distinctly disclosed.

And

3.18 Under current arrangements, Marketers quote prices on a port basis, and therefore generally deduct freight charges from Growers' payments.  The actual cost under marketing options of carrying a Grower's grain to port is not transparently disclosed.

These statements are redundant for the upcoming harvest and all subsequent harvests as they are premised on the conduct of AWBS under the former single desk arrangements.  In a regulated market, the point of export is up country receivals storages whereas in the newly instituted deregulated market, the point of export is often the port.

Because such a large percentage of the WA crop is exported and has therefore been delivered to AWB pools there was real transparency issues for growers, particularly in relation to transport charges and internal management fees.  Post the passing of the Wheat Export Marketing Act 2008, AWB no longer holds the single desk.  Competitive pressures will therefore force AWB to move to a port price as every other grain buyer offers now.  Attachment 1 is an actual payment advice issued by Graincorp for wheat delivered in the last season for delivery from Willaura to Portland (port).  The freight to port is clearly identified as such in the 15th column of the table.  This is standard practice for east coast wheat payments.  Just because AWB was not transparent in the past because it offered a pool price is not the relevant benchmark for the future.  In an environment where pools will decline and entities such as Graincorp will enter the WA market to export on their own account, the experience in the Eastern States informs with some certainty that the WA grain market would anyway move to transparent pricing without the heavy hand of Grain Express.


7. IMPACTS OF THE PROPOSAL

7.1 GRAIN GROWERS SUBSIDISE THE RAIL NETWORK

In its proposal CBH asserts that the consequences of inaction will be serious and immediate.  The only actual consequence claimed by CBH of failing to have the Grain Express proposal authorised is further leakage from rail to road freight (see par. 1.13).  As has been identified above, grain freight has been progressively moving away from rail although rail maintains the largest market share of grain freight in WA.  A recent study of WA grain infrastructure found that for an average grain harvest size, the rail network as currently configured generates a loss of $5.7m p.a.  Furthermore, of the four rail networks, two, "Albany and Geralton do not return positive results under any practical rationalisation scenario, primarily due to low grain volume density and competitive road networks." (42)  The Kwinana zone is found to be negative on its current configuration however a program of line rationalisation could reverse this.

Failing other policy changes it is likely therefore that grain freight will continue to exit rail for reasons unrelated to the deregulation of the wheat market.

The choice of transport mode should be based on the costs to the user.  Both road and rail have distortions in the charges that are levied as a result of political overrides of cost based charging which has brought subsidies and averaging of costs.  Overall freight road users' tax payments far exceed the expenditures on roads, including appropriately allocated externalities. (43)  Rail delivers a very low return on the investment incurred in its development and upkeep and is inherently unsuited to the increased segmentation of grades and varieties in the Australian grain industry.

What the Grain Express proposal seeks to do is force grain to stay on rail despite its lack of price competitiveness and the unprofitability of the rail system.  The result of this is growers, who pay the freight charges from silo to port, are required to prop-up a rail system in need of significant investment and which is uncompetitive with road without subsidy.

The WA Strategic Grain Infrastructure Study contended "the grain rail network is of strategic and economic value to the local, state and national communities.  State government is the most direct beneficiary of the rail system and is best placed to develop funding support mechanisms to ensure its sustainability, including a track CSO arrangement." (44)  And,

"Having sold Westrail and legislated for an access regime and a regulator, the state government has not taken any substantial role in planning for the grains logistics industry.  The Government has a stated objective of supporting rail and transferring freight from road, but there are few direct signs of this support." (45)

If, as appears likely, the WA Government supports the Grain Express proposal, a key motivation for doing so may be that Grain Express is a mechanism to reduce the level of any CSO arrangement necessary to support its policy objective of supporting the rail industry.

In any case, it is not the role of the ACCC to intervene in policy questions outside its competition remit.


7.2 CROSS SUBSIDISATION OF WHEAT GROWERS BY OTHER GROWERS

Grain Express proposes to mandate a single receivals and handling fee for all up-country storage sites.  However, as the Synergies report makes clear, these facilities vary considerably in "size, geographic location and mobilisation cost." (46)  Similar to the well-positioned growers subsidising rail costs of outlying growers above, Grain Express will force growers located near to efficient, low-cost receivals sites to cross subsidise those growers less well located.  The creation or maintenance of hidden cross subsidies in this manner is akin to the creation or maintenance of a community service obligation (CSO) which is contrary to national competition policies and more properly explicitly funded by government policy outlays than by other growers. (47)

A consequence of flat receivals pricing will be the continuation of smaller, otherwise uneconomic sites thereby placing an additional cost burden on the entire system.  Additionally, while the very small or outmoded receivals sites continue via cross subsidies, this hinders the possibility of either rationalisation by CBH, or the entry of new storage and receivals operators.  A fact the Grain Express proposal notes. (48)

CBH claims that because it is a cooperative, owned by growers, its interests are aligned to growers. (49)  However, growers are not an homogenous body, instead they exhibit significant differences in scale, profitability, access to transport and port.  In an environment where there is the entry of additional grain buyers from the deregulation of export marketing, the divergence of growers' interests is likely to accelerate.  Just as in other markets opened to competition there will be winners and losers from this process.  However, successive competition authorities and policy makers have recognised the overall economic benefit from additional competition and have acted to remove, or at least make transparent, hidden cross subsidies rather than embed them.


7.3 DISGUISES POOR INVESTMENT DECISION BY CBH IN CONTAINER SHIPPING

CBH has invested in considerable container loading and handling facilities known as the Metro Grain Centre (MGC) at Forrestfield.  The Grain Express proposal states this facility can now handle approximately 1,000,000 tonnes of grain per annum. (50)  In 2007 CBH commenced construction of a container park at the MGC as a noted component of its reported $16 million of capital works. (51)  The 2007 annual report from CBH notes the rapid increase in containerised exports as the basis for this investment decision.  In 2007, the export of wheat in containers was deregulated and prior to the limited issue of export licences, this was the only mechanism to circumvent the single desk monopoly.

Despite reductions in containerised shipping rates in the past few years, it is still more expensive to load and ship via container than in bulk.  With the recent lifting of restrictions on bulk export wheat, it is unlikely containerised wheat will comprise anything but very limited niche opportunities.  In this environment, CBH's recent capital expenditures are unlikely to make returns above the cost of capital if handling charges for containers are priced transparently.

However, the creation of Grain Express provides CBH with the opportunity to subsidise container loading at the expense of bulk loading and thereby recoup their investment.  The access provisions in the Wheat Export Marketing Act 2008 do not stop CBH from cross-subsidising container loading as long as all customers have access to the same pricing.


7.4 LIMITS DEVELOPMENT OF A SECONDARY GRAIN TRADING MARKET

The creation of Grain Express will stymie the creation of such a secondary physical market.  This will occur in a number of ways.  Firstly, as Grain Express makes clear, it will be the only possessor of whole of system stocks information.  Competitive markets are by definition predicated on efficient flows of information and the Grain Express proposal makes clear CBH has no intention of sharing this information.  The creation of Grain Express will remove the otherwise natural incentives for grain traders at least to share stocks information as a mechanism to aid the development of a secondary market.

The Grain Express proposal does not explain how costs will be charged for intra-system trades between buyers.  It is not explained whether grain buyers will be forced to pay to physically move the grain to an outturn site, aggregate it there, before transporting it again to the new buyer or whether stocks trades will be permitted in system and if so how these will be charged.  For example if buyer A held an entitlement to Geraldton port zone wheat that he or she sold to buyer B in Esperance zone, under Grain Express CBH could deliver wheat to buyer B from stocks held in Esperance, yet what freight and other charges will be levied?  The potential exists for CBH to charge as if the wheat had physically moved from Geraldton to Esperance.


8. CONCLUSION

The premise of the Grain Express proposal is that the increasing complexity caused by deregulation of the Australian wheat export market will cause costly inefficiencies in the supply chain.  The solution proposed by CBH is to corral all grain logistics movements within the CBH system.

This submission argues that CBH's solution to increasing supply chain complexity is anti-competitive and likely to result in sub-optimal development of the grain industry in WA.  Logistics costs are not the only, or even the major, mechanism for increasing total returns to grain industry participants.  In any case, the restriction of grain logistics to higher cost transport modes is not consistent with the development of an efficient supply chain that can adapt to changing needs and costs.

The development of specialist varieties and grades, with associated price premia is an important driver of value within the industry.  The operation of the Grain Express proposal explicitly seeks to limit grain buyers from seeking out markets that will pay premia for such specialist grades and subsequently promoting more profitable growing practices.  This would leave the Australian industry at sub-optimal levels of output.

Furthermore, a key basis for the CBH proposal is that by virtue of its monopoly position in grain recevials and port facilities, CBH is the only entity with all the information to move grain across the WA network in the most efficient manner.  Other industries such as power generation have demonstrated the economic benefits to all industry participants from the sharing of information and it is to be expected that in the absence of the Grain Express proposal secondary information markets in grain stocks would develop.

Overall, CBH through Grain Express proposes a significant barrier to the development of the WA grains market in a manner inconsistent with competition policies.  The application by CBH should be rejected.



BIBLIOGRAPHY

ABARE.  "Australian Commodity Statistics 2007." ed. wheat.xls, 2008.

________.  Australian Crop Report.  Canberra, 2008.  no., 146.

Barnard, Chester.  The Functions of the Executive.  Cambridge:  Cambridge University Press, 1938.

Burke, Tony.  Wheat Export Marketing Act.  House of Representatives, 2008.  2nd Reading Speech.

CBH.  Annual Report.  Perth, 2007.

________.  "Grain Pool Applies for Wea Accreditation."  4 July 2008.

Coase, Ronald.  The Firm, the Market, and the Law.  Chicago, IL:  University of Chicago Press, 1988.

Commonwealth of Australia, Wheat Export Marketing Bill, 2008.  pt. C2008B00160.

Corrs Chambers Westgarth, and CBH.  Grain Express Cbh Grain Supply Chain Solution:  Notification under Trade Practices Act 1974 (Cth) Section 93.  2008.

Dawson, Daryl, Jillian Segal, and Curt Rendall.  Review of the Competition Provisions of the Trade Practices Act.  Canberra:  DOCITA, 2003.

Demsetz, Harold.  "Two Systems of Belief About Monopoly."  In The Organisation of Economic Activity, 1.  Oxford:  B. Blackwell, 1988.

Exports and Infrastructure Taskforce.  Australia's Export Infrastructure.  Canberra, 2005.  Report to the Prime Minister.

Friedman, Thomas.  The World Is Flat.  New York:  Farrar, Strauss and Giroux, 2005.

Grain Licensing Authority, http://www.gla.wa.gov.au/index.htm (accessed 9 July 2008).

Graincorp, "Grain Transact" http://apps.graincorp.com.au/graincorp/ (accessed 5 July 2008).

Hilmer, Fred, Mark Rayner, and Geoffrey Taperell.  National Competition Policy Review.  Canberra:  AGPS, 1993.

Machlup, Fritz, and Martha Taber.  "Bilateral Monopoly, Successive Monopoly and Vertical Integration."  Economica 27, no. 106 (1960):  101-119.

Nelson, Brendan.  Wheat Export Marketing Act.  2008.  2nd Reading Speech.

Pastoralists and Graziers Association.  Statutory Review of the Grain Marketing Act 2002.  Perth, 2008.  Submission to the Economic Regulation Authority.

Productivity Commission.  Microeconomic Reforms and Australian Productivity:  Exploring the Links.  Canberra, 1999.  Commission Research Paper.

________.  Review of National Competition Policy Reforms.  Canberra, 2005.  Inquiry Report, 33.

________.  Road Freight and Infrastructure Pricing.  Canberra, 2006.  Inquiry Report, 41.

Samuel, Graeme.  "Australian Infrastructure Reform:  Where to from Here?" In South Australian Centre for Economics corporate lunch.  Adelaide, 2006.

Samuelson, Paul.  Economics:  An Introductory Analysis.  Australian edition adapted by Keith Hancock, Robert Wallace.  ed. Sydney:  McGraw-Hill, 1970.

Sd+D.  WA Strategic Grain Infrastructure Study.  2005.  Final Report for the Department for Planning and Infrastructure, WA Australian Railroad Group, AWB Limited, CBH Limited.

Synergies Economic Consulting.  Benefits of Grain Express.  Brisbane, 2008.  Report for Corrs Chambers Westgarth.

Viscusi, W. Kip, John Vernon, and Joseph Harrington.  Economics of Regulation and Antitrust.  Cambridge, Mass:  MIT Press, 1995.



ENDNOTES

1.  ABARE, Australian Crop Report (Canberra, 2008), no., 146.

2.  Pastoralists and Graziers Association, Statutory Review of the Grain Marketing Act 2002 (Perth, 2008), page 7, Submission to the Economic Regulation Authority.

3.  ABARE, "Australian Commodity Statistics 2007," ed. wheat.xls (2008).

4.  Basis is the difference between wheat prices in Australia and the global price with both prices expressed in the same currency.  Basis exists due to supply and demand changes between domestic and international demand.

5.  Grain Licensing Authority, http://www.gla.wa.gov.au/index.htm (accessed 9 July 2008).

6.  Corrs Chambers Westgarth and CBH, Grain Express CBH Grain Supply Chain Solution:  Notification under Trade Practices Act 1974 (Cth) Section 93 (2008).

7.  Sd+D, WA Strategic Grain Infrastructure Study (2005), Final Report for the Department for Planning and Infrastructure, WA Australian Railroad Group, AWB Limited, CBH Limited.

8.  Ibid.

9.  Ibid., page 29.

10.  Corrs Chambers Westgarth and CBH, page 68, par. 6.14.

11.  Tony Burke, Wheat Export Marketing Act (House of Representatives, 2008), 2nd Reading Speech.

12.  Brendan Nelson, Wheat Export Marketing Act (2008), 2nd Reading Speech.

13.  Since 1997, exporters other than AWB have been able to apply for very limited licences to export.  These licences amount to less that 2% of the national wheat crop.

14.  CBH, "Grain Pool Applies for Wea Accreditation," 4 July 2008.

15.  AWB has announced an east coast pool and a WA pool will operate for the coming harvest.

16.  Commonwealth of Australia, Wheat Export Marketing Bill, 2008.  pt. C2008B00160, Division 8, Section 24.

17.  Graeme Samuel, "Australian Infrastructure Reform:  Where to from Here?," in South Australian Centre for Economics corporate lunch (Adelaide:  2006).

18.  Chester Barnard, The Functions of the Executive (Cambridge:  Cambridge University Press, 1938).

19.  Ronald Coase, The Firm, the Market, and the Law (Chicago, IL:  University of Chicago Press, 1988).

20.  Fritz Machlup and Martha Taber, "Bilateral Monopoly, Successive Monopoly and Vertical Integration," Economica 27, no. 106 (1960).

21.  Exports and Infrastructure Taskforce, Australia's Export Infrastructure (Canberra, 2005), page 18, Report to the Prime Minister.

22.  Thomas Friedman, The World Is Flat (New York:  Farrar, Strauss and Giroux, 2005).

23.  Fred Hilmer, Mark Rayner, and Geoffrey Taperell, National Competition Policy Review (Canberra:  AGPS, 1993).

25.  W. Kip Viscusi, John Vernon, and Joseph Harrington, Economics of Regulation and Antitrust (Cambridge, Mass:  MIT Press, 1995), 351.

26.  Paul Samuelson, Economics:  An Introductory Analysis, Australian edition adapted by Keith Hancock, Robert Wallace. ed. (Sydney:  McGraw-Hill, 1970).  As well as authoring a standard economics textbook, Samuelson is generally credited with originating the theory of public goods in a 1954 paper.

27.  Productivity Commission, Microeconomic Reforms and Australian Productivity:  Exploring the Links (Canberra, 1999), p.117, Commission Research Paper.

28.  Productivity Commission, Review of National Competition Policy Reforms (Canberra, 2005), page XIV, Inquiry Report, 33.

29.  Ibid., page 135.

30.  Harold Demsetz, "Two Systems of Belief About Monopoly," in The Organisation of Economic Activity (Oxford:  B. Blackwell, 1988).

31.  Smith opposed local monopolies of tradesmen and he sought the abolition of the East India Company's monopoly of the Indian trade and British shipping monopolies to North America that were a cause of the War of Independence

32.  Daryl Dawson, Jillian Segal, and Curt Rendall, Review of the Competition Provisions of the Trade Practices Act (Canberra:  DOCITA, 2003).

33.  Corrs Chambers Westgarth and CBH, page 17, par. 2.25.

34.  Ibid.  See page 5, par 1.7 for confirmation that grain tonnages are only known at harvest.

35.  ABS 7121.0

36.  Corrs Chambers Westgarth and CBH, page 21, par. 2.43.

37.  WA Bulk Handling Act 1967, Section 37(1).

38.  Graincorp, "Grain Transact" http://apps.graincorp.com.au/graincorp/ (accessed 5 July 2008).

39.  Corrs Chambers Westgarth and CBH, page 22, par. 2.47.

40.  Ibid.  See page 28, par. 2.83 for confirmation that grain is geographically sourced at present

41.  Ibid., page 49, par. 3.29.

42.  Sd+D, page 8.

43.  Productivity Commission, Road Freight and Infrastructure Pricing (Canberra, 2006), Inquiry Report, 41.

44.  Sd+D, page 9.

45.  Ibid., page 14.

46.  Synergies Economic Consulting, Benefits of Grain Express (Brisbane, 2008), page 15, Report for Corrs Chambers Westgarth.

47.  Hilmer, Rayner, and Taperell.

48.  Corrs Chambers Westgarth and CBH, page 71, par. 6.32(i).

49.  Ibid., page 9, par. 1.26.

50.  Ibid.

51.  CBH, Annual Report (Perth, 2007).

Burden of a carbon tax

A carbon tax in the form of an emissions trading scheme (ETS) could be the best thing to happen to corporate Australia since the invention of double-entry bookkeeping.

For decades there's been the public perception that the interests of business ("the big end of town") are different from those of the rest of the community.  An ETS would quickly dispel this perception.  One of the reasons an ETS is popular with voters is because they think it will be business that will pay for it.  If an ETS were implemented, it is not companies but mums and dads and households that will foot the bill.  The more an ETS is discussed, the more it becomes clear that ultimately the interests of mums and dads and households are identical with those of the businesses.

Until they started thinking about what the effect of an ETS on the price of petrol would be, most voters thought they'd somehow be immune from the operations of carbon trading.  Now they are asking, "Why didn't anyone tell me?"  Such a misunderstanding is understandable given that during the federal election campaign Kevin Rudd told Australia that implementing an ETS would be easy and painless and would do us good by creating new "clean" industries and jobs.  Few politicians bother to consider the consequences of signing the Kyoto Protocol.

The myth that the interests of business are separate from the interests of everyone else is often perpetuated by business leaders themselves.  While there are lots of sensitive, new-age executives preaching about the perils of climate change, very few are willing to talk about the impact of a carbonconstrained economy on families and households.  It is the business sector itself that has encouraged the notion that corporate Australia will be the only sector affected by an ETS.  Very few executives have been willing to talk about the impact of carbon charges on working families.  The Prime Minister, too, has not been particularly eager to discuss such things.

There's a certain irony in the fact that many of the business organisations loudly calling for government action on climate change are demanding at the same time that the government reduce regulation.  The legislation required to establish emissions trading will make the Income Tax Assessment Act look easy to understand by comparison.

It will be interesting to see how energy companies are treated in the brave new world of an ETS.

When banks were forced to lift their mortgage interest rate because of global conditions, politicians rushed to condemn them as greedy.  When the goods and services tax was introduced, former prime minister John Howard and his treasurer, Peter Costello, promised that the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission would prosecute anyone unfairly taking advantage of the tax change.  One can only wonder what sort of regime will need to be established to ensure that electricity companies (and all other companies, for that matter) don't profiteer from an ETS.

An ETS would involve government planning and regulation on an unprecedented scale.  The closest parallel to what an ETS would look like is what the Chifley government attempted with its nationalisation policies of the 1940s.  In the past few months many commentators have scoffed at the coalition's promise to reduce the price of petrol by $0.05 a litre.  But the price of petrol swings elections.  One of the reasons Robert Menzies was swept to power in 1949 was because he promised to abolish the petrol rationing imposed by Labor.

Many chief executives have paraded their virtue by supporting an ETS.  Some have been motivated, quite understandably, by self interest.  Executives of service companies stand to reap windfall gains by providing accounting, financial and legal services to those affected by the ETS.  Heads of green energy providers also stand to gain.  Others have volunteered their companies as greenhouse guinea pigs, safe in the knowledge that it won't be their company paying the price of the experiment.

Hundreds of companies and business organisations made submissions to the Garnaut review.  Only one submission doesn't support an ETS in some form.  But business support of an ETS comes with a catch.  While many companies say they want an ETS, at the same time they also say they don't want it applying to them.  Or, if an ETS were to apply to them, they should be compensated.

The attitude of business to an ETS is a little bit like that of St Augustine's approach to sin:  "Oh Lord, help me to be pure, but not yet".


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Friday, July 11, 2008

Delusions of Grandeur in the Wake of Garnaut

Since the election of the Rudd Labor government last year, and now with the release of the Garnaut Climate Change Review's Draft Report last Friday, we seem to be under some sort of delusion that by adopting an emissions trading scheme we can have a significant impact on the global climate.

The new report is scathing of Australian agriculture, noting that "the contribution of the agriculture sector to Australia's greenhouse gas emissions is relatively large" (pg 210) and it shows agriculture, forestry and fisheries as having the largest emissions profile of any industry at 28.5 percent.

Emissions from agriculture could, of course, be eliminated by banning all food production.

Indeed, if you reduce the meaning of life to the amount of carbon produced, as the report's author Ross Garnaut, does, then banning agriculture is perhaps a reasonable theoretical proposition.

In reality, however, like the rest of us, Professor Garnaut needs to eat, and like it or not, most of our food comes from the agriculture sector.

He makes it clear that if an emission trading scheme in Australia is to have any impact on global climate, the world's major economies must also do something about their emissions listing China, the US, the European Union, Indonesia, Brazil, Russia then India, as the world's largest greenhouse emitters in that order.

Since agreeing to undertake the Review as a basis for the development of an emissions trading scheme in Australia, Professor Garnaut has been quick to point out he is an economist not a scientist, and that he just accepts the majority opinion on the science.

But he doesn't, and when it comes to the issue of global temperatures, instead of just accepting that over the last 10 years there has been no increase in average global temperatures, the professor states that experts have assured him that "the temperatures recorded in most of the last decade lie above the confidence level produced by any model that does not allow for a warming trend".

In short, Professor Garnaut has been long-winded (the report is nearly 600 pages) and has unnecessarily complicated various issues.

Then again if he just admitted that we don't really have a climate crisis (just a prolonged drought in the Murray-Darling), and that given Australia accounts for less than 1 percent of global emissions we are mostly irrelevant in the scheme of things, his work probably wouldn't be seen as all that important.


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Monday, July 07, 2008

Protecting kids from TV swearing is not Canberra's job

One of the most appealing features of Australian democracy is our enthusiasm for parliamentary committees.  Committees are to politicians what Bob the Builder DVDs are to three-year-olds -- if a politician is busy with a committee inquiry, then they can't get up to any mischief.

So it was easy to be happy when it was reported earlier this year that swearing on television shows -- which most people would agree is one of the top issues facing Australia today, perhaps second only to jaywalking -- was to be investigated by a federal Senate committee.

Sure, it's an embarrassing waste of taxpayers' money to have politicians spend their days discussing the need for politeness when responding to complaints about TV programs.  But doing so is a lot better than if they spent that time thinking up new taxes.  Senators have to do something -- let them deliberate over which words shouldn't be said on TV.

But the final 80-page report released late last month (it took nine senators four months to write) isn't limited to platitudes and speechifying.  It recommends that all new televisions sold in Australia be compelled to offer a "parental lock", which prevents children from watching programs above a certain classification.

On the surface, this seems like a good idea, doesn't it?  Adding a parental lock to new televisions isn't likely to cost consumers too much more money.

But is good parenting impossible without help from Canberra?

The parental lock is very similar to a program implemented in the US after a surge in controversy about violence on TV.  All TVs sold in that country have to have a V-chip installed that allows parents to block certain shows.  (Journalists joked that if the sex-obsessed Republicans had introduced the measure it would have been called the S-chip.)

But while 70 to 80% of American parents claim that they are "seriously concerned" about their children watching inappropriate TV programs, their concern doesn't extend to actually using the V-chip.  In 2004, a Kaiser Family Foundation survey found that only 15% of parents had even tried switching it on.  As a consequence, some US politicians have argued that the V-chip should be set at its most restrictive level as its factory default.

It's easy for parents to claim in a telephone poll that they worry about their kids mimicking the rude words heard on TV.  But you have to wonder just how seriously concerned those parents are if it is too much effort to switch on a function that their TV already has built into it.  If the US experience is anything to go by, the parental lock will be a flop.  And Australian television is already much tamer than TV in the US.

After all, just as you don't have to buy your children junk food even if they really want it, you don't have to let your children watch rude programs.

One of the more bizarre reasons the nine senators thought that parents needed help from the Federal Government was because televisions were increasingly being placed in kids' bedrooms, far from the watchful eye of adults.  But perhaps concerned parents could consider simply moving the offending TVs somewhere children don't sleep.

Indeed, monitoring what TV programs children watch isn't actually that hard.  And for those parents that feel they need some technological help, there are numerous TVs and set-top boxes that already offer parental locks.  Is it that hard for parents to inquire about these features when they first buy their TV?

Parents who want to shield their children from the rougher parts of pop culture can easily do so with off-the-shelf technology and simple common sense.

But nevertheless, politicians of all stripes pander to moralising conservative lobbyists for whom the real issue isn't that their children could hear rude words on TV, but that there are rude words on TV at all.  As usual, politicians aren't actually thinking of the children.  Politicians are thinking of marginal electorates.

Perhaps some perspective is needed.  Parents and governments won't have failed if the next generation of Australians lead happy and productive lives, but curse like drunken pirates.  Society won't crumble.  The Senate committee should have asked everybody to take it easy -- Canberra isn't a parenting aide.


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Saturday, July 05, 2008

Prepare for dim, costly future

Climate Change Minister Penny Wong accused the Opposition of not knowing whether it was Arthur or Martha on climate change.  As the realities of a carbon tax sink in, there are politicians on both sides having second thoughts.

The International Energy Agency recently estimated that 1.1% of annual global output would be required in additional investment to achieve meaningful carbon dioxide emission reductions.  The estimate is founded on a nuclear-powered future, which Australian governments have ruled out.

Similarly, Ross Garnaut's econometric advisers are indicating to him the cost of policies to force the elimination of carbon-based energy.  His draft climate change report -- due out today -- will have ministers focusing their minds on the sacrifices needed if they are to activate rhetoric about the need for action.  This message has been slow reaching Wong and her advisers.  A senior Commonwealth official, during one of the extensive greenhouse gas meetings between Wong and energy industry executives, argued, "A carbon price of $10 per tonne would only mean 3 per litre on the petrol price.  That surely is not the end of the world."

He might have added that even a $100 a tonne carbon price and a 30 price rise was not economically debilitating.  Apart from anything else, this line of argument has become the victim of opinion polls.  The electorate believes a few cents a litre of petrol is important.  One arm of the Government clearly agrees, as evidenced by the discredited national price watch system, established ostensibly to save consumers 1.9 a litre.

The favourable response to the Opposition's proposal for an excise reduction indicates public opinion is more sophisticated than the Government had expected.  The propaganda about global warming, coupled with assertions that overall costs to the economy and to individuals will be trivial, had led to complacency by the proponents of carbon taxes or other price-boosting measures.  People may want to save the whale and the world but they do not believe they have to make sacrifices of several cents a litre of petrol to do so.

More important is the fallacy that it will take a few cents a litre to cut emissions said to cause global warming.  The point about an emissions tax is that it is not in place to raise revenue.  It is in place to stop us using the carbon-emitting products.  If with a 30 a litre additional charge on petrol we don't change our use much, the charge has to go higher.  Nicholas Stern, in Britain, and Garnaut have argued, correctly, that to stabilise carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, countries like Australia need to reduce emissions by 80%-90%.  Because of the pervasive nature of carbon dioxide in energy products, even with nuclear power, this requires big reductions in our energy use.

Any possible scenario to achieve the reductions said to be needed entails measures that will choke off carbon use from petrol by between 70% and 80%.  Demand for petrol is highly inelastic -- to reduce it by 70%-80% may involve a $10 a litre price.  Even spending hundreds of billions of dollars to replace the car fleet with hybrids would only take us half-way.  To meet the sort of goals being discussed, we would need to transform society in ways that have never been seen.  The choking off of demand goes far beyond no longer being able to drop off the kids for sport.  It means a total reorganisation of living, working and leisure.

It means abandoning comforts we have come to regard as essential.  It means a transformation of the nation's industrial structure and abandoning energy-intensive industries that have an internationally comparative advantage.

The issue is, how much further damage will be tolerated before the Government is forced to change tack and abandon its pursuit of its impossible goals and the cost burdens these will impose on the community?

Postscript:  The $70 million subsidy to the Toyota hybrid, assuming the car would not otherwise have been produced or imported, equates to a carbon tax of $30 a tonne.  Compared with some emission reduction schemes this price would be a bargain, as it would be equivalent to a mere doubling of electricity's cost!


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Friday, July 04, 2008

Get real:  nuclear the sane option

Last week in parliament, Kevin Rudd wheeled himself in to respond to a Dorothy Dixer on emissions trading.  This allowed him to traverse the whole enchilada on climate change and the policy response.  In the absence of action, he predicted higher seas, lower rainfall and stronger cyclones.

"A direct environmental assault on the planet [and] on our country", is how he put it.  He argued crop production would fall, the Great Barrier Reef would be endangered, malaria would spread southwards, and we would be vulnerable to heat deaths and dengue fever.

Many would doubt these claims.  And, at least with respect to the tropical diseases, Rudd himself might have wondered why malaria and dengue fever are not already prevalent in warmer parts of Australia if they are to become problems with a two degree temperature rise.

With renewable energy requirements, direct budgetary spending and regulations on product supply and housing construction, Australia is already spending about $3 billion a year.

Building on this, we are starting to see a kaleidoscope of greenhousecentred reports based on general equilibrium models of the economy.  Activists, business and government agencies are feeding in assumptions to the modellers and then hawking the findings.  The Australian Conservation Foundation contracted CSIRO (not an agency renowned for its economic expertise) to examine the impact on the economy of its own favourite scenario.  Its report, Growing the Green Collar Economy, assumes away most of the problem with a belief that the nation's productivity can double with its energy use simultaneously halving.

This is the sort of fantasy that a hack golfer might construct from adding together his best ever scores on each hole and concluding he could beat Tiger Woods.

At least the ACF understands that Australia's carbon emissions have to be reduced, perhaps by 90 per cent, if we are to play a part in stabilizing global emissions.  But to get there it had to adopt the most fanciful of possibilities.  These included replacing coal with wind and some gas.  Wind, however, cannot be used except in minor quantities -- not only is it three times the cost of coal but its variability means a wind-based system would face constant power outages.

Gas is an excellent fuel but is also carbon intensive and any substantial expansion of Australian demand would require a price more than three times that prevailing at present.  Even if the ACF assumptions were realistic, the future would be joyless.  We would face a massive reduction in car use, a change in diet away from meat and back to grains, no heating and air-conditioning, no air travel.  The ACF sees green jobs replacing those lost by its proposals, though it is difficult to see eco-tourism thriving in the face of travel restrictions.

Alternative-scenario settings provide still bleaker pictures of a carbon-constrained future.  A recent Access Economics report, using some highly optimistic assumptions about the cost of wind and other alternatives, concludes that for 2020 a carbon tax of $19 a tonne of CO2 would bring a cost to the economy of $18 billion a year.

Financially viable clean-coal technology seems to be a bridge too far.  The newly announced Victorian brown-coal plant is dependent on a hefty subsidy simply to match blackcoal plants' emission levels.

And Climate Change Minister Penny Wong continues to pursue a 20 per cent renewable target in addition to an emissions tax, notwithstanding advice from the Productivity Commission that this will add needless further costs.

The only way deep emission reductions appear achievable is by a comprehensive shift to nuclear power.

Politicians are fresh from vilifying this energy source and denying that there is any possibility of such facilities being sited in their electorates.  Last week, at the Australian American Leadership Dialogue in Washington, the Labor Party's Bob Carr and Paul Howes made steps to equate green with nuclear.  Rudd has said we can do the CO2 reductions without nuclear power but he will change his mind once he's got the avalanche of climate change reports he has commissioned.

The reality is that we would need perhaps 40 nuclear plants dotted all around our coast if a carbon-free economy is not to mean impoverishment.  Even then we would have lost our competitive advantage of cheap power, nuclear being 50 to 80 per cent more expensive than coal.


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Developers have building blocks to get better results

It's long been a dream of many in the Melbourne construction sector to build medium-density apartments at the same cost of building housing in the suburbs.  But this dream has remained a fantasy for a simple reason -- as soon as an apartment exceeds two storeys, construction unions claim building must occur under union rules.

The result to date is that union-built apartments cost about $2600 per square metre while a normal house costs about $1000 per square metre.  This excessive cost has contributed to killing town planners' dreams of consolidating Melbourne's growth and restricting the urban sprawl.

The culture of building apartments under union rules has clashed with the social objective of providing affordable medium-density housing.  It partly explains why the State Government realised its Melbourne 2030 plan is unrealistic.  It is sensibly and quietly releasing more urban-fringe land for domestic housing to secure affordable housing.

Understandably, developers eager to service the urban consolidation dream have appealed to the State Government to negotiate solutions with unions.  But developers are wrong.  The power to build apartments at a lower cost is already in their hands.  The State Government can't do more.

In 2006 the Federal Government introduced laws that changed the rules and behaviour in commercial construction.  Until that time, the commercial construction sector was ruled by violent, near mafia-like, behaviour by unions.  The new laws introduced a powerful "cop onto the construction beat", the Australian Building Construction Commission.

Any company that defies the laws and illegally colludes with unions does not receive government construction work.  This has created a powerful commercial trigger to comply with the laws, given government funds a third of construction.

The ABCC has important whistle-blower-type protection powers.  This includes being able to make people give private, protected evidence so union thugs and colluding companies cannot identify those who have exposed breaches of the law.

Some unions and companies have not liked this, but the results for the community have been startling.

Industrial disputes in the construction sector have plummeted to almost nothing, from being the highest in Australia.  Comparative commercial construction costs have dropped markedly.

Labour productivity in construction is up 17.6%, and employment numbers have increased.  The cost differential between commercial and housing construction has collapsed from over 15% to about 2%.

But these impressive figures do not apply to all builders and all developers.  It depends on how smart they have been in grasping the new laws and creating new workforce strategies.  There have been winners and others left behind.

EastLink has been a big winner.  It has opened six months early, producing a windfall for investors from big cost savings and unbudgeted additional revenue flows.  EastLink was built with workforce arrangements influenced by the Federal Government's construction reforms.  By comparison, CityLink suffered from old union rorting, now well documented, which resulted in huge cost overruns and completion delays.

Politically there is no blockage to achieving the same results on EastLink with medium-density apartments.  The Howard government created the construction reforms.  The Rudd Government has kept them in place.  Rudd could easily have made big pro-union changes quickly, but instead has committed to keeping a "strong construction cop on the beat".

The Victorian Government has co-operated with the reforms.  The state economy benefits from the reforms.  There's a direct positive impact on the budget.  Victoria gets more infrastructure spend for its bucks.  That means more roads, hospitals and schools.

But government can't run private businesses.  Business always complains that governments interfere.  The best governments create and enforce laws that allow business to operate fairly.  That's what the construction reforms have achieved.

However, developers who think that Labor governments can create cosy pro-business deals with unions, have an outdated understanding of relationships between Labor governments and unions.  Labor governments don't do the bidding of unions and unions don't do the bidding of Labor governments.

In Victoria in particular, government-union relationships are at arm's length, and often tense.  Witness the prolonged teacher union problems over pay.

To build medium-density apartments at normal housing costs, Melbourne developers have their future in their hands.  EastLink and many other subsequent projects prove this.  The law and management templates available are often being used and frequently include sensible union involvement.

Given developers' continuing complaints, what presumably is missing is updated management competencies.


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Thursday, July 03, 2008

Tough decisions?  Give me a break

Kevin Rudd reckons the reason for the swing against Labor at the Gippsland byelection was because he has made some "tough decisions".  If this is what he actually thinks, then he is deluded.

Maybe the voters of Gippsland spotted something that the rest of Australia missed.  Because so far it's hard to tell what are all the "tough decisions" the Government was supposedly punished for.  There's nothing too tough about holding a couple of cocktail parties, selecting a woman as the next Governor-General, and hiking up the tax on alcopops.  At the moment the most challenging job for Canberra bureaucrats is keeping count of all of the Government inquiries being held.

At his meeting with premiers this week, one of the biggest arguments the Prime Minister faces is whether the Commonwealth or the states will pay for the electrical equipment required to implement his "education revolution".

On the international stage, Rudd promises that he will keep complaining to the Japanese about their whaling, and he has proposed establishing yet another Asian regional association.

Rudd has claimed he's tough on government spending.  It's true that some spending has been cut, but means-testing the baby bonus to stop millionaires getting it was also popular.  While some Howard-era programs have been cut or abolished, total government spending is still going up.  This year, Federal Government expenditure will be at least $10 billion more than last year.  Part of that spending includes $100 million for sporting facilities in marginal seats promised by Labor during the election campaign.  It's not too tough for an MP to hand over a cheque to the local sporting club.

The Gippsland byelection rebuff and Rudd's easing personal popularity are not the result of anything he has done.  It's what Kevin Rudd hasn't done that is the problem.  After all his hope, hype, and promises, voters might be getting just a little bit sceptical.  The Government can't live off Kevin07 indefinitely.  It's now 2008.  There are three key things that Rudd hasn't yet done.

First and foremost, he hasn't brought down the cost of groceries, petrol, or mortgages.  It's true that Rudd was clever enough to avoid any explicit promises about these things during the election campaign.  But he was happy enough to leave the impression with voters that should he become prime minister he would help alleviate the monetary pressures on working families.  Now he says his government has done as much as they can for them.  To most people this sounds like a feeble excuse.

Second, the Government hasn't revealed what it is going to do to improve the quality of life of indigenous Australians.  Kevin Rudd (and the media) made a great deal out of his saying sorry, but since then there has been practically nothing.  Labor has done its best to avoid revealing what exactly is its position on the Northern Territory emergency intervention.  At the time of the apology there was a unique opportunity to leverage the goodwill of all Australians to make a positive difference to indigenous communities.  With every passing month that goodwill dissipates.  The Prime Minister (and many others) are fond of talking about climate change as "the greatest moral issue of our time".  Instead of worrying about things that may or may not happen in 100 years' time, the Government could focus on what's occurring right here and now in indigenous communities.

The third thing Rudd hasn't done is to tell Australians anything about his emissions trading scheme for greenhouse gases.  All we know is that we're going to have one and it is going to start in two years.  We don't know how it will work, how much it will cost, and how many jobs will be lost because of it.

When John Hewson tried to introduce a GST he was expected to explain to the Australian public the precise details of the effect of the new tax on the cost of the ingredients of a birthday cake.  And in the end the GST was brought in only after John Howard fought the 1998 federal election on the issue.

On any measure, an emissions trading scheme is a much bigger change to the country than was the GST.  Howard gave the voters a choice over the GST.  Will Kevin Rudd do the same for an emissions trading scheme?


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Wednesday, July 02, 2008

How humanity outflanked starvation

A Farewell to Alms:  A brief history of the world
by Gregory Clark
(Princeton University Press, 2007, 440 pages)

Sometime in the last 200 years there was a fundamental shift in the human condition.  Our lives changed from being somewhat "nasty, brutish and short" into the long prosperous lives we lead today.  In one important sense we changed from living "brutish" lives to living "British" lives -- the industrial revolution started in England.

It is a great irony that this change occurred during the life of Thomas Malthus (1766-1834) who had set out and explained the notion that gains in income were lost through population growth -- an idea now known as the Malthusian trap.  That humanity escaped the Malthusian trap cannot be doubted -- how and why we escaped is an open and hotly debated issue.

Gregory Clark's A Farewell to Alms:  A brief history of the world is the latest book in a long line of tomes that attempts to explain what happened and why.  A particularly important issue is why the industrial revolution happened first in England and not elsewhere;  Clark makes a valiant effort to address that question.  Overall, Clark has produced a massive book, brimming with facts and analysis;  yet it is unsatisfying.  Unlike previous books in the genre, most notably Jared Diamond's Guns, Germs and Steel, Clark's effort is written as a scholarly work and few lay readers are likely to struggle through the often mind-numbing detail.

Clark's basic thesis is that high-income individuals had more surviving offspring than low-income individuals.  In a Malthusian world this implied downward social mobility.

[T]he superabundant children of the rich had to, on average, move down the social hierarchy in order to find work.  Craftsmen's sons became laborers, merchants' sons petty traders, large landowners' sons smallholders.  The attributes that would ensure later economic dynamism -- patience, hard work, ingenuity, innovativeness, education -- were thus spreading biologically throughout the population.

While Diamond argued geography is destiny, Clark has an argument somewhat familiar to Australians -- demography is destiny.  It appears the industrial revolution occurred in England and not in Japan, for example, because the English aristocracy had more children than elites elsewhere.  Bourgeois values slowly permeated society as the downward mobility of the aristocracy displaced the vulgar values of the lower classes -- who Clark tells were effectively dying out.  Rather than the meek inheriting the earth, according to Clark the envious inherited the earth.

This is a very different story from that which economists normally tell in explaining economic growth in general and the Industrial Revolution in particular.  Adam Smith famously wrote, "Little else is requisite to carry a state to the highest degree of opulence from the lowest barbarism, but peace, easy taxes, and a tolerable administration of justice".  In this view, institutions matter.  Private property, stable government, and the rule of law are important in the usual economic story.  Clark's argument is that these institutions are necessary but not sufficient conditions for economic prosperity.  In particular, he argues that these institutional features have characterised England since at least 1300.  In fact, he suggests on some indicators (low taxation, for example) that England did better in 1300 than at present.

There is, however, a fundamental difficulty with Clark's thesis.  He makes the argument that vices and virtues are reversed in a Malthusian world compared to our non-Malthusian world.

Conflict, disorder and poor sanitary practices increased living standards, while peace and order, improved sanitation and personal hygiene lowered living standards.  In particular he argues that hard work was a vice, while indolence was a virtue.

Where then does the work ethic come from?  James Buchanan, the 1986 Economics Nobel laureate, has argued the work ethic expands the size and scope of the market and so contributes to prosperity.  Yet Clark has us believe that this ethic was a vice, that it existed and slowly spread through society via the downward mobility of those people who had this ethic.  Why would this ethic have evolved at all, at any point in human history, if it were a vice?  Why would the upper classes have this vice, if it were a vice?  Are we to believe that our current prosperity is due to the "bad habits" of an ancient elite?  Unfortunately, this question arises early in reading the book and is not answered.  Clark provides copious evidence of his downward mobility thesis but, as Professor Tyler Cowen of George Mason University argues, he never proves his argument about the Malthusian trap.

A Farewell to Alms has been widely discussed and reviewed.  The New York Times, for example, has published two reviews;  the first by Tyler Cowen and the second by Benjamin Friedman.  These reviews were mostly sympathetic, although Cowen published a more detailed critique on his blog Marginal Revolution.  Deirdre McCloskey, however, is far less kind.  She summarises Clark's thesis as "rich people proliferated, and by a social Darwinian struggle the poor and incompetent died out, leaving a master race of Englishmen to conquer the world".  While Clark has failed to fully reference McCloskey's own work in this area, and they are academic competitors in some sense, her position is nuanced.  McCloskey does admit that a large part of the book is "uncontroversially good, a review for outsiders".  She does not, however, believe the central hypothesis at all.  Nonetheless his argument is sufficiently important for McCloskey to take the time to refute the argument rather than simply ignore it.

The question that Clark never asks, is whether these changes were for the better.  Clark's major contribution lies in the historical detail that he provides.  His description of the pre-1800 world is both shocking and illuminating.  The description of how filthy Europeans were relative to Asians is particularly shocking.  In particular the notion that Europeans enjoyed higher incomes because they were less willing to spend economic resources on cleanliness.  The implicit assumption is that changes that have occurred since 1800 are for the better.

This is in contrast to the change from hunter-gatherer society to agricultural society.  Here Clark presents evidence consistent with the notion that human welfare declined over time.  The hours of work in an agricultural society are higher with a lower-payoff than in a hunter-gatherer society.

What does it mean to have escaped the Malthusian trap?  In short, rising population and rising real income.  Some environmentalists, however, are unhappy with this state of affairs.

Rising income, with the associated rising consumption, and rising population is "unsustainable".  Calls for the creation of a "low carbon" society effectively argue that the industrial revolution was all a mistake -- that escaping the Malthusian Trap has led to an unsustainable lifestyle.

Ian Dunlop, chairman of the Australian National Wildlife Collection Foundation (CSIRO), set out the principles of a sustainable lifestyle earlier this year in an Australian Financial Review article.  Reduced mobility, reduced trade, local production, and no trade in energy are all hallmarks of an environmentally sustainable lifestyle.

The only difference between this and the Malthusian world is his call for high high-speed internet -- but for what purpose?  Demand for long distance communication would quickly collapse in a Malthusian world.

An even more blatant example of Malthusian nostalgia can be seen in a recent article by Ross Gittins in the Sydney Morning Herald.  He writes "in olden days, the rich regarded bathing as a sign of their social superiority".  Clark indicated that cleanliness was a Malthusian vice and that Europeans, in particular, suffered little from this vice.

To combat climate change, Gittins tells us we need to bathe or shower less often.  Yet, if we are to believe Clark we're descended from people who preferred more cleanliness to less and there may be a genetic preference to bathing in addition to social considerations.  Mind you, historically, it was only Europeans who made a virtue of filthy living.

Of course, a return to a Malthusian world requires much more social engineering than that either Dunlop or Gittins imagine.  As it is Dunlop imagines far more social engineering than a democratic society could ever undertake.  To return to a world where all humans -- except for a tiny downwardly mobile elite -- live at a subsistence level is an impossibility given the number of people alive today.  Cities would need to depopulate and the number of people rapidly decrease.

Our environmental friends have yet to articulate this aspect of their Malthusian philosophy.  Thanks to Clark's book more people understand the Malthusian world and few readers will want to live there.

Clark has a fascinating thesis and produces a wealth of evidence.  Ultimately however Clark raises even more questions than he answers.  In scholarly circles that can be valuable, but the lay reader is likely to be frustrated.  Even if his basic thesis were true, he doesn't explain why the English upper classes chose to have more children than those in other parts of the world.

We are back to the basic explanation for the industrial revolution;  for some reason, something happened in England that totally revolutionised our world.

Liberalism after Bruce Smith, but before Bert Kelly

Steadfast Knight:  A life of Sir Hal Colebatch
by Hal G.P. Colebatch
(Fremantle Arts Centre Press, 2004, 304 pages)

&

Senator Bertie Johnston
by John C. Rice
(Hesperian Press, 2006, 658 pages)

The political orientation of Australia's intelligentsia has produced a situation where there have been biographical studies of a plethora of Australian socialists and communists.

Often the subjects studied were quite obscure in their own times and -- given the subsequent discrediting of their ideology -- it is hard to see how they have much contemporary significance.  Yet, by contrast, some very significant Australian free traders have languished; their fascinating and significant stories untold.

The publication of biographies of Sir Hal Colebatch and Bertie Johnston, two Western Australian advocates of the free trade cause in the federal parliament in the 1920s and 1930s, has gone some way towards rectifying this serious anomaly in the writing of the nation's history.  While the two men have had to wait many decades after their deaths to have their stories told, they are both the beneficiaries of sympathetic biographers, with Hal Colebatch being the namesake son of his subject, and John C. Rice having been commissioned by the Johnston family.

These two biographies also start to resolve a historical dilemma of Australian liberalism -- there is a great gap in our understanding of the free trade movement in the prewar and immediate postwar years.  It is tempting to think that, after Bruce Smith's departure from the federal parliament in 1919, there were no free traders in the parliament until the election of the "modest member" Bert Kelly, in 1958, begat a new generation of opponents of protection.

By the time Kelly ceased to be an MP in 1977, John Hyde and others were taking up the free trade baton and were being assisted in their endeavours by a renaissance of classical liberalism around the world, growing interest in the ideas of Friedman and Hayek, and the obvious failures of Keynesian economics and protectionism.

John Hyde and the historian Greg Melleuish have both written about some of those who were extra-parliamentary critics of aspects of the Australian settlement from the 1920s onwards, such as the economic historian, Edward Shann, but until recently there was little writing about whether there were free trade parliamentarians in those sorry decades in the middle of the twentieth century.  The publication of the Colebatch and Johnston biographies demonstrate that the free trade fire continued to burn, if somewhat dimly, between the eras of Smith and Kelly.

Colebatch and Johnston were both elected to the Senate in the 1928 election, having previously been members of the Western Australian state parliament.

They were not in the same party -- Colebatch being a Nationalist/United Australia Party man, while Johnston was in the Country Party, having started his parliamentary career representing Labor.  As well as their mutual support for the free trade cause, the two men were also friends and bridge partners.

The junior Colebatch says that while his father "was sometimes called the last free-trader in Australian polities" there were other politicians, apart from Johnston, who supported his views, including another Western Australian, Harry Gregory and the South Australian, Charles Hawker.  Colebatch also cites three examples of prominent free-traders outside parliament -- farmer's representative on the Tariff Board (and father of Bert), Stan Kelly, A.H. Lewis of the Commonwealth Bank and Shann.  However, when the other three politicians died within four years of one another around 1940, it probably did leave Colebatch with the honour of being the "last", although, by that stage, he was also no longer a federal MP.

There can be no doubts about Colebatch's free trade credentials.  He was chosen, in 1939, to give the Centenary Address to the Cobden Club in London, which his son describes as "an unusual honour for a dominion official and a tribute to his long fight for free trade", although a contributing factor may also have been the shocking decline in support for Cobden's principles among Britain's own political class in that era.

One of Bertie Johnston's best speeches on the subject of free trade was given in 1933.  In it, he observed of the worldwide shift from free trade to protection that "unfortunately the world went mad, and every country wanted to sell its products to the other, and take nothing in return".  He continued:

That system has failed miserably, and the sooner we return to a proper system of interchange of goods between countries, the better it will be for the world generally, and particularly for a country like Australia, which cannot live without its great export production and markets.

Given its significance as an issue, one might have thought that advocacy of lower tariffs might be a crucial aspect of a politician's career, but for most historians it is either something to be ignored, or condemned.  The topic does not rate a mention in G.C. Bolton's entry on Johnston in the Australian Dictionary of Biography, unless such advocacy is meant to be included in the comment that "during the depression he pushed the sectional interests of wheatgrowers, at times annoying colleagues ..."

Somewhat better is B.K. DeGaris' entry on Colebatch which notes that "as president of the Melbourne-based Tariff Reform League, he was a notable critic of high tariffs, which he saw as doubly bad in their unfair impact on the less developed states".

As well as voting in parliament to oppose the rapid tariff increases, which both sides of politics supported in the depression era, Colebatch also wrote columns for newspapers in the eastern states attacking protectionism.  While not a native of Western Australia, Colebatch saw that the state was suffering from the twin consequences of Australia's federation and the subsequent protectionist settlement.

The former, by delivering free trade within Australia, had given the protected industries of the eastern states complete access to the developing states, and thus the ability to kill off nascent potential competitors; while the latter was destroying the potential prosperity of these export-oriented states by stifling international trade.

Colebatch had a clear philosophical opposition to protection and used the obvious harm it was doing Western Australia to illustrate the principle.  In Johnston's case, one senses that it was perhaps more the other way around -- he saw the specific harm being done to his state and thus adopted a more general anti-tariffs position.

Nonetheless, it was still a long-held and consistent position.  Some years before he entered the Senate, Johnston noticed "the great growth of the protected secondary industries in Sydney and Melbourne which is being achieved at the expense of our great primary industries, particularly of agriculture".

Before John McEwen imposed his protectionist views upon it, the Country Party was the least protectionist of the major parties, being beholden to neither the manufacturing interests nor the unions.

Rice's biography makes clear that the vigour of Bertie Johnston's opposition to protection far exceeded that of many of his Country Party colleagues -- he provides numerous examples of Johnston's regular attacks on proposals advanced by the Bruce, Scul-lin and Lyons governments to increase or extend protection.

As well as the advocacy of free trade, another key issue for Western Australia's federal MPs was how the Commonwealth's other financial arrangements discriminated against their state.  Colebatch Jnr. notes that his father and Johnston "had similar views on the disadvantages Western Australia was suffering vis-a-vis the federation, though at this time Cole-batch emphasised the constitutional aspect, on which he wrote a great deal, and Johnston emphasised the financial".

An interesting sidelight of this issue was Johnston's strong opposition to the appointment of F.W. Eggleston as the Chairman of the States Grants Commission.  While Eggleston is often remembered for his famous critique of public transport administration in his book State Socialism in Victoria, he was a firm Deakinite protectionist, with a faith in the benefits of centralised planning.

Another key element of the Australian Settlement that Colebatch opposed was the White Australia Policy.  In the words of his son, Colebatch saw it as "an example of counterproductive economic irrationalism:  fear of the 'Yellow Peril' was retarding the development of Australia's north and leaving it more open to any invader".

Meanwhile, Johnston showed sound instincts when he opposed the Commonwealth government building houses and flats in Canberra believing that, if there was real demand, it would be met by private enterprise.  He also attacked the newly formed Australian Broadcasting Commission when it proposed publishing a journal to compete with privately funded magazines.

All of this is not to say that both men were paragons of political virtue.  Johnston had a well-earned reputation for being a "roads and bridges" member, being particularly noted for his ability to get railways built in his own state electorate of Williams-Narrogin.  As his Dictionary of Biography entry describes, Johnston was "a maverick politician who treated the conventions of public life with adventurous disregard, Johnston never lost an election because voters responded to his gusto and his willingness to prime the parish pump".

Johnston also came under scrutiny for a number of his business dealings, mainly in hotels, and his untimely death was triggered by the tax office taking legal action over alleged unpaid taxes.

It was not just in their political life that Colebatch and Johnston shared similarities.  Colebatch's second marriage occurred in his seventies and Johnston's first at 51.  Both had children later in life.  There were also significant differences in their backgrounds and experiences.  For instance, while one trip to Papua-New Guinea was the limit of Johnston's travel outside Australia, Colebatch travelled widely, meeting many world leaders, assisted by spending two spells as Western Australian Agent General in London.

These two biographies are written in very different styles.

Colebatch writes with a lighter touch and is not afraid to insert himself into the narrative.  It includes a foreword by Geoffrey Blainey, who expressed the view that being "written by his son enhances rather than impairs it, for they are virtually three generations apart".  The value of this book is not only that free traders get rare sympathetic coverage, but also some of those regularly lionised by the left cop some well-deserved criticism.  While generally polite to all his opponents, Colebatch could not abide the dishonourable actions of men such as Red Ted Theodore, Jack Lang and Eddie Ward.

Rice's book is twice as long and adopts a more forensic style that provides lots of detail about the minutiae of Johnston's life.  A former political staffer, Rice brings a keen appreciation of politics to the writing.  He observes, when one of Johnston's local opponents calls for the end of the party system, that it was a "sentiment (that) will win a round of applause even today, but the party system is not so naively exorcised".

Both Sir Hal Colebatch and Bertie Johnston have fascinating life stories that their respective biographers, despite their stylistic differences, tell well.

Their state political careers were also full of incident, with Colebatch briefly reaching the premiership and having to deal with a violent waterfront dispute, while Johnston was instrumental in bringing down a state Labor government.

However, for the student of Australian political history there is much more than the human interest in these books.  Supporters of free markets in the twenty-first century should appreciate how hard the free trade case was to prosecute in the 1930s, when free trade seemed dead and democracy was facing an uphill, battle to survive.

And, while others were preaching a mantra of appeasement at the end of that sorry decade, Sir Hal Colebatch, saw that:

"every nation that has put the ideal of peace before the ideal of liberty has lost first its liberty then its peace, while every nation that has put the ideal of liberty first ... has generally preserved both its liberty and its peace".

Cathedrals and the birth of freedom

Cathedral
by Jon Cannon
(Constable, 2007, 534 pages)

Enter any one of the great gothic cathedrals of Western Europe and you cannot help but be overwhelmed by their beauty and profound mystery, and also the sheer size, boldness and complexity of their structure.

But because of their ubiquity, and their modern association with travel and tourism, we tend to lose sight of their central historical significance to European history and the events they represent.

One such gothic cathedral, England's Lincoln Cathedral, was completed in 1311 and its original spire soared to 160 metres.  Until its construction, no building had equalled the height and scale of the European cathedrals anywhere in the world since the construction of the Cheops Pyramid in 2560 BC, which was, at completion, just over 146 metres, the tallest construction ever built to that date.  Why did it take almost another 4000 years for this feat to be surpassed?  Although the spire of Lincoln Cathedral collapsed three hundred years after it was built, nothing was to rival the heights achieved by these gothic cathedrals until the late nineteenth century with the "modern" Eiffel Tower for the Great Universal Exhibition in Paris in 1889.

Quite apart from any consideration of medieval religious belief and symbolism -- why were such singular and remarkable edifices built?  These buildings, in purely economic terms, were the biggest single financial undertakings in the medieval period.

The expenditure and scale of the structures eclipsed those of defensive castles, parliaments, government buildings and anything else.

Their construction and the political will to build them often extended over several generations from conception and planning to completion.  Massive, long scale projects of this nature are completely unknown in the modern world.  The Snowy Mountain Scheme or the Three Gorges Dam are mere bagatelles at their side.

A preliminary report on a study that Anne E.G. McCants from Massachusetts Institute of Technology is undertaking on the economics of cathedral building in the late Middle Ages, has come up with some fascinating cost figures to give us an idea of the economic effort that these cathedrals represented to the society of the time.  Many Australians will remember the spiralling costs of the Sydney Opera House, funded, judiciously as it turned out, by a state run lottery.  At its completion in 1973, the basic building, before machinery and fittings were installed, blew out to an impressive $400 million in today's dollars.

McCants quotes from research based on billing techniques relied on by modern quantity surveyors and suggests that in the Paris basin alone between the years 1120 and 1270, the number of ecclesiastical buildings created for this small population was equivalent to constructing three Sydney Opera Houses in each of Sydney's nine local government council areas within a period of one hundred and fifty years.  In fact, it has been estimated that in Europe at that time there was a church or chapel for every 200 inhabitants.

And Europe had a poor, overwhelmingly agricultural economy, not a rich modern one like todays Australia.  95 per cent of people then worked and depended directly on agriculture and had a life expectancy of less than 50 years.  McCants relies on calculations from Bernard Bach-rach's book, The Cost of Castle Building, emphasising the puny economic output in those times.  Considering the low grain yields -- yield ratios of as low as 2:1 and only occasionally as high as 4:1 -- and the labour intensive nature of agricultural production, the opportunity cost of building at the close of the tenth century required the full time efforts of at least 4 and possibly 5 agricultural workers to sustain the construction workers (and their dependents) assigned to building.  This opportunity cost should be compared to that of military expenditure at the time to underline the perceived social priority for church building.  To sustain a mounted warrior and his horse with wheat-equivalent calories amounted to the surplus of almost twelve agricultural workers every year.

Could it be, as McCants wryly observes, that "there may yet be a case to be made for the power of the afterlife in medieval financial markets?"

Robert A. Scott, in The Gothic Enterprise, illustrates just how motivated the protagonists of these constructions of megalomania were.  In France, Scott writes, what mattered to competitive cathedral builders was height.  Bourges Cathedral reached 37 metres inside the nave under the stone vaulted ceiling.  In short order, Reims came along at 38 metres, Amiens at 42 and then Beauvais Cathedral, the tallest, at 48 metres.  To give the reader an idea of scale, Beauvais could house a whole modern sixteen story office building inside the nave under its ceiling.  Over the channel in England, it was length that counted.  Salisbury Cathedral reached 138 metres, Canterbury 165 metres, and the biggest, St Paul's in London, later destroyed by fire, reached nearly 183 metres:  nearly twice the length of a soccer field.

The physical scale nevertheless directly reflected the cathedral's vital function within each city as a political and administrative power.  Education, legal and social services were central to the cloister attached to the cathedral buildings.  Religious courts played a role in the legal system, and the traditional role of priestly training metamorphosed in these city based cathedrals into the new universities that were to be critical in developing the new class of professional city dwellers.  These would, ironically, lead to secular, independent thought.

The Church was everything.  Like God Himself, She was omnipotent.  The bishops ran it as an economic monopoly:  a virtual theocracy.  As the French historian George Duby writes:

Established at the pinnacle of the social hierarchy, the bishops and cannons possessed the best lands and huge barns that the tithes at each harvest would fill to roof;  they controlled the cities, exploited the markets and the town fairs;  from land and trade, they profited directly.  Other resources came from the rich laity who, concerned for their souls, gave generously.

Indeed, the Church was rich.  Jon Cannon, in his new book, Cathedral, even gives an estimate for the cost of one medieval bishop's mitre, the ceremonial head-dress.  Covered in jewels and gold, it would alone have been as expensive as a small building.  Cannon points out that by the twelfth century, the cathedrals with their bishops had become uncontested centres of power, with their own laws and taxes, "answering only to God and the Pope".

Because of this aggressive assertive-ness, the Church was seen as a threat to established royal power.  Between 1076 and 1302 there were two papal bulls asserting superiority of the papacy over the kings.  The prosperity of the thirteenth century however helped to settle things down between the Episcopal bureaucracy and the royal administrations and a mutual back scratching of sorts developed.  Cannon writes that "kings, to retain the support of the Church ... became patrons, and gave clerics even stronger control over common people."  Henry III, for instance, spent about ten per cent of the state's annual income over many years on architecture, notably in building Westminster Abbey.  This amounted to spending roughly the equivalent of the states entire annual income for two years.  As Cannon points out, "for the first time, the most influential building in England was a work of a king, rather than an archbishop."

Similar challenges came from merchants challenging the monopoly that the Church held over economic life.  The emergence of market towns, increased trade, urban professionals, and universities -- themselves springing from the cathedral -- created a more secular, economically independent middle class.  Peter Watson, in his grand 2005 overview Ideas:  A History of Thought and Invention, from Fire to Freud, reminds us that a good proportion of European peasants owned land.  Land ownership was as high as 40 per cent in some areas.  Along with the rising mercantile class, "parliaments and estates evolved to give voice to the new classes and their interests", and could be seen as an aspect of kingly weakness.  As Watson puts it, "in the high middle ages, we see a weakening papacy fighting weakening kings."

There was much unease caused by an overbearing Church, and often violent struggles between the people and the repressive power of this theocracy.  As with all politically repressive regimes, ideology was central to maintaining power.  Cannon evokes the power of magic and symbolism that the cathedrals were able to impose on the people.  He says,

At a time when the vast majority of people were illiterate, illustrations in the stain glass, sculptures and religious iconography of all sorts filled the cathedral church ... through the rituals performed there each day, God confirmed his contract with humanity.  Without the authority of its bishop, man's side of this contract would break down.

There was an increasingly urgent need for the Church to resist heretical statements and utterances as people were exposed to new ideas and developed an intellectual cut and thrust relevant to town people.  Duby reports instances of growing resentment and even assassination of clerics by the bourgeois, as a revolt at the Church's demands and monopoly.  He explains the nexus between the power of the Church and its enthusiasm for its own aggrandisement in its massive building programme.

It was, in the end, the art of the gothic cathedrals that became the most effective instrument, perhaps, of catholic repression ... of the heretical movement.

Clearly there was an economic reawakening in Europe.  The cathedrals may have represented some sort of "last fling" of Church power just as it was slowly being undermined by a more assertive, economically independent, and confident middle class.  But nevertheless, the cathedrals did signal, if not represent, a new, confident, Europe.  Watson sees the emergence of middle class individualism as a vital causal factor leading directly to the development and flowering of science, scholarship, and exactness in secular life.  He writes:,

The two centuries from 1050-1250AC were pivotal in the emergence of the West from its earlier medieval stupor.  It was a time of explosion of new ideas, central to the West's identity and spectacular growth.

To this spectacular growth Watson also counts the discovery of crop rotation and the use of mechanical power which both increased productivity enormously, the widespread adoption of Arabic numerals, and the development of double-entry bookkeeping, amongst others.  (We should of course count the contribution of the medieval warming period from around 800 to 1300 AD.)

Whatever the proximate causes, Gothic cathedral building during these pivotal centuries was a very concrete manifestation of a confidence born of increasing economic prosperity that heralds a new dynamic in Europe.

The buildings are such a technical triumph on their own terms that they should be measured on a scale of millennia.  They represent a Western awakening that has not yet diminished.

I was a teenage revolutionary

Young Stalin
by Simon Sebag Montefiore
(Weidenfeld & Nicolson, 2007, 496 pages)

Young Stalin is in the best Hollywood tradition of the prequel.  Written after the highly rated and popular work on Stalin, The Court of the Red Tsar, Young Stalin delves into his early life as a son, student, poet, radical, husband, gangster, and conspiracist.  Also in the Hollywood tradition, the author, Simon Montefiore, has the capacity to weave a gripping narrative out of what could have been dry archival material.  His literary skills are put to good service as he brings to life Stalin's early milieu of Tsarist Georgia, an incredibly violent, drunken, booming, romantic cross-roads of multiple ethnicities and ideologies.

The prequel is perhaps the more important of the two as an historical work:  Stalin's time in power is necessarily well-covered by histories and biographies, but before the publication of Young Stalin, there had only been two or three biographies of his early life.  With so many Tsarist archives and personal journals only becoming available since the collapse of the Soviet Union, Montefiore has shed new light on Stalin's early life and made explicable his rise to the top.  We also better understand the well-springs of his later record as revolutionary, mass-murderer, and paranoid tyrant.

Until this book came along Stalin's history has been written by the losers.  While Stalin won the battle to succeed Lenin as leader of the Soviet Union, he was portrayed by the exiled Leon Trotsky and his followers as a grey bureaucrat who had been engaged in clerical duties during the revolution.  His rise, they said, represented a betrayal of the cause of lighting the globe in a blaze of "permanent revolution", and a victory for the administrative state.  Orwell, echoing this, portrays Big Brother as a generic despot of a totalitarian, but not necessarily communist, dystopia.

Stalin responded to Trotsky in characteristic fashion -- arranging for an ice-pick to be plunged into his skull.  But ever since then, radical and left-green movements around the world have continued the fiction that the murderous-ness of the Soviet regime was somehow an idiosyncratic outcome of Stalin's personality, rather than an inevitable outcome of the seizure of power by a self-appointed "vanguard of the proletariat".  As Edmund Burke had pointed out, a revolution born in blood brings forth the most ruthless of the revolutionaries, and Stalin was certainly that.  The picture that emerges from this biography is not that of a glorified clerk, but rather a highly-intelligent, driven, erudite and altogether riveting personality entirely capable of suborning the Bolsheviks and the Soviet state to his will.

Stalin was born Josef Vissarionovich Djugashvili on 6 December 1878, the year in which Tsarist Russia completed the conquest of the last corner of Georgia to resist conquest and assimilation.  His father, known as Beso, was a cobbler with his own workshop and staff, and in the mostly poor township of Gori the family was considered moderately prosperous.  Only later did Beso's worsening alcoholism lead to the destruction of the business and his estrangement from his family.  The life of young Josef -- or "Soso" as he was mostly known -- was dominated by his mother, "Keke", who adored, beat, supported and drove her son so that he could achieve her undying dream of him becoming a priest.

The great pastime of schoolboys and youths in Gori in those days was bare knuckle street fighting.  Young Soso was an enthusiastic participant -- even permanent damage to his arm from an earlier mishap, and his relative lack of size, were not enough to keep him from the fray.  The reports gathered by Montefiore are of a youth typically Georgian in his pastimes, but already displaying a magnetic personality, a disdain for authority, and an ability to recruit others to serve in his battles.

The turning point in his life came when his remarkable mother cajoled, begged and borrowed from enough supporters to ensure her son a half-scholarship and sufficient supplementary funds to attend Seminary in the Georgian capital, Tbilisi, the only hope for the further education of Soso.  There he wrote poetry, read voraciously and excelled academically, all the while clashing with the repressive school authorities.  It surely becomes more difficult for left-wing intellectuals to dismiss Stalin as a mere "thug", when his reading habits included Hugo, Zola, Schiller, Maupassant, Balzac, Russian and French history, Marx of course, and Plato in the original Greek.  A particular favourite novel told of a Georgian bandit-hero called "Koba", a name he adopted as the first of his many pseudonyms.  Even before finishing school he was attending meetings of the local radical and workers movements.  After leaving school he was working as a meteorologist, of all things, when he was first marked for arrest by the Tsar's secret police.  Ever alert, he spotted the plain clothes police, and escaped, but thereafter never again held gainful employment outside the revolutionary movement.

He was frequently dismissed and derided in that movement by its leaders, who couldn't see past the pock-marks, the withered arm, the eccentric Georgian clothes and his general air of gangsterism.  He was that, but much more.  In the early years of the twentieth century he gravitated to Lenin's faction and this is where his skills for organisation and violence came to the fore.

While the movement was officially non-violent, Soso raised cash with daring robberies, extortion rackets, and smuggling.  His daylight raid of a Tsarist payroll delivery in Tbisili in 1907, complete with massive explosions, terror, and death, raised the then phenomenal sum of 250,000 roubles, nearly $3.4 million in today's money.  Lenin, in exile, righting for leadership of the anti-Tsarist forces, officially distanced himself from the terrorism while fighting off his rivals to secure the cash.

Over the next decade Soso rose in influence within the revolutionary movement, mainly, but never entirely, aligned with Lenin.  Soso travelled in and out of Russia to attend meetings with Lenin and others, including one notable visit to London.  He was also in and out of jail, and served stints of varying severity in Siberian exile.  Montefiore, drawing on his researches in the archives of the Tsarist secret police, the Okhrana, shows just how much they knew about the revolutionaries, but also how much the state maintained the formalities of justice and more or less European notions of punishment.  Sentences might be for only a few years, and escapes from exile were both frequent and not greatly punished if the prisoner was caught again.

For all the repressiveness of the Tsarist state, the first Red Terror after the revolution executed more people in eighteen months than in the entire history of Tsarist Russia.  Nevertheless, the Okhrana was quite competent in its intelligence gathering and use of double-agents and Soso's life-long paranoia was well-founded.  It was during this time he began the practice of purging his terrorist cells and executing suspected collaborators.  The great and murderous purges of party, state and people that he carried out in office were therefore entirely consistent with the pitiless and paranoid mental framework he developed during his time in the revolutionary demi-monde.

We also learn the remarkable story of Stalin's marriages, affairs, and cast-off children.  Montefiore even interviewed a 109-year-old Georgian who remembered Stalin's first wife, Kato Svanidze.  Soso was passionate about Kato, but when he dragged her to the oil boom-town and radical hotbed of Baku, his neglect and the polluted environment led to her early and difficult death from disease.  Her relatives never forgave him, and he later said that something of himself died with her.  The son he left with relatives to raise was not the last child he was to abandon.

Soso attracted women, particularly intelligent and/or radical women, with his poetry, singing, humour, romantic gestures and dashing figure.  If they were married to other men, it did not matter.

As he aged -- and perhaps as his heart and intellectual arteries hardened ever more -- he was driven to pursue younger and younger women.  During his last and most difficult exile in the far north of Siberia, Soso "seduced and impregnated" a thirteen-year-old by the name of Lidia Perprygina.  Even by the standards of a remote and backward village this was seen as outrageous, and when discovered in flagrante delicto he was chased out of the house by a sabre-wielding policeman.  He took up with his last wife, Nadya Alliluyeva, when she was sixteen.

Soso took up Stalin ("Man of Steel") as a revolutionary code-name only in 1912.  By the time he returned from exile to the revolutionary hot-bed of St Petersburg in 1917 he was a member of the Central Committee of the Bolsheviks, but not necessarily visible as one of its leading lights.  Having spent nearly two decades underground, he had no public profile and was unprepared for the somewhat democratic public space which opened up after the abdication of the Tsar.  This made Trotsky's subsequent version of events more easily believable, but Montefiore provides evidence that when Lenin wanted something done, only Trotsky and Stalin would be considered.  All three were dismissive of the dithering of their more cautious and softer-hearted colleagues, and believed absolutely in violence as the indispensable tool for transforming society.  In this way the author also helps dispel the myth that Lenin was, as Manning Clark put it, "Christ-like ... in his compassion".  Rather than betraying the legacy, Stalin in power was continuing the policies of class genocide and the use of terror as a tool of social engineering put in place by Lenin.

It is profoundly disturbing and perhaps dangerous to get as close to the mind of a tyrant as we do by reading this book, especially when the quality of the writing keeps us hooked.  In any other circumstance it would be hard not to admire the daring, erudition, and occasional charm of the Georgian warrior-poet it describes.  But in this remarkable work Montefiore has given us the complete picture, and fascination is admixed with revulsion.

At a time when the Russian state begins to see once again criticism of Stalin as unpatriotic, this book is almost essential reading.

Have bad movies edged out good?

Sleaze Artists:  Cinema at the Margins of Taste, Style, and Politics
by Jeffrey Sconce (ed.)
(Duke University Press, 2007, 340 pages)

It may not come as a surprise that Hostel:  Part II, the 2007 movie which depicts nearly an hour and a half of brutal, explicit and uninterrupted torture, is part of a rich cultural lineage.  Hostel II is part of a new movement of neo-exploitation cinema, and its direct artistic ancestors date back nearly half a century.

So have "bad" movies like these edged out "good" movies?

Few cultural fields illustrate the blurring between "highbrow" art and "low-brow" craft more than the movies.  As Jeffrey Sconce points out in the new edited collection of essays on trash cinema Sleaze Artists:  Cinema at the Margins of Taste, Style and Politics, movies were never an elite art;  condemned to be practiced and enjoyed only by the cultured few.  Instead, movies have always existed only to entertain, and as such, have always been a "vulgar medium" designed to appeal to the unwashed masses.

But there is vulgar, and then there is vulgarSleaze Artists explores the depths of trash, exploitation and grindhouse cinema of the last forty years.  Not only do the films discussed in Sleaze Artists have no artistic pretentions;  they barely even have entertainment pretensions.  For the cinema underground, the first priority is to titillate.

The essays in Sleaze Artists are diverse, as is typical for an academic collection, with contributions covering gay military films, boredom as a motif in the Italian underground, the quasi documentary elements of the postwar nudie film, and an account of the production and distribution of a gothic horror movie that couldn't find an obvious market.  The authors are an assortment of professors and cultural studies academics from the United States;  if they were Australians, our first reaction would be to decry a university system that redistributes taxpayers' money to tenured lecturers just so that they can watch all eleven Friday the 13th films, but as they are Americans we can just marvel in amusement.  So it is easy to write that many of the essays in Sleaze Artists are fascinating.  After all, it's not our taxes.

As an example, an interesting chapter by Kay Dickinson looks at the strange partnership between Italian horror of the 1970s and early 1980s and the often very beautiful soundtracks which accompanied them.  In this, the archetypal example is the infamous 1980 film Cannibal Holocaust.  The gruesome violence of this film -- the director, Ruggero Deodato, was forced to prove in an Italian court that he had not actually killed anybody during filming, and the film shows the actual slaughter of half a dozen live animals -- is matched with an unpredictably lush synthesizer jazz score by the composer Riz Ortolani.  Dickinson nominates the dissociative and unnatural quality of the synthesiser itself as a conscious artistic decision by the filmmaker to unnerve the viewer -- as if seeing a live turtle dissected on screen was not unnerving enough.

Tania Modeleski's chapter on the 1960s director Doris Wishman is one of the few in Sleaze Artists that shows the necessarily ambiguous relationship modern audiences have with exploitation cinema.  Modeleski, a Californian academic with an interest in feminist film criticism, is deeply ambivalent about her subject.  Doris Wishman produced some brutal films.  Her female protagonists get raped, abused and forced to murder.  Every bruise is carefully fetishisticly recorded for the silent male audience.

For Modeleski, that a female director produced the most misogynistic films of the genre is a distinct challenge.  Most of the essays in Sleaze Politics seek to normalise their films and their audiences -- to make the unusual seem pedestrian.  Furthermore, a focus of the cultural studies movement over the last few decades has been not just to make marginalia the focus of legitimate academic study;  it has been a conscious effort to detect "transgressive" artistry and politics in the cultural underground.  Movies are carefully parsed and examined to discover ironic visions worthy of the twenty-first century arts faculty in even the most forgettable cookie cutter exploitation genres.  If you pick up a copy of any schlock horror film in a bargain DVD bin, the advertising on its case will proclaim its "subversive" nature.  In most cases, this subversiveness is absent and rarely more than wishful thinking.  After all, modern audiences, trained on Quentin Tarantino-esque postmodernism, like to think everything is ironic.

But Wishman's "roughie" films are too grotesque to support such a reading;  there is no self-conscious and knowing winks in her depictions of female abuse.  Her protagonists may have lesbian encounters, but Modeleski is unable to interpret these as in any way "feminist" -- instead, they are shown as just more abusive relationships down the rabbit hole of female degradation.  Some of Wishman's films simply cannot be reformed under the banner irony and subversiveness -- they are too repulsive to be squeezed into the feminist narrative, despite Wishman's gender.  (This has not, however, stopped some critics from trying).  Modeleski concludes mundanely that Wishman needed the money, and simply adhered to the conventions of the genre she worked in.

The American movie critic Pauline Kael once provocatively wrote that she found Wild in the Streets, an unassuming and cheaply made film about hippy teens taking over the American government, far more interesting than Stanley Kubrick's achingly important and serious 2001:  A Space Odyssey, made in the same year.  The final essay, "Movies:  A Century of Failure" takes this observation as its jumping off point, and tries to work out just what the appeal of underground or otherwise unsuccessful films is.  How have embarrassingly bad movies -- like Jennifer Lopez and Ben Affleck's wildly unpopular 2002 romantic comedy Gigli, or 2004's Catwoman, which reduced the Oscar winner Halle Berry to a lifeless, latex wearing sex object -- managed to ascend the cultural ladder and gained cult status?  How has the 1950s director Ed Wood, whose films are barely able to sustain a timeline, let alone a plot, become a modern film legend?  Whenever Wood's Plan 9 From Outer Space is again nominated as the worst film ever made, it assures that he will be watched and discussed for far longer than some of the middle of the road directors today.  And it is likely that Showgirls, the 1995 film that was little more than an excuse to display the former teen actress Elizabeth Berkley naked, will, having now achieved cult status, be seen for decades.

Jeffrey Sconce argues that film going is, at least for those who ask for great things from the movies, almost always one of disappointment -- rarely do movies live up to their expectations.  Films are always too formulaic, characters are always too poorly drawn, and direction is always too flat to maintain our interest.  And so, the pleasure of unexpectedly finding an inexplicably bizarre film on late night SBS or buried at the rental store becomes a far greater thrill than can be provided by the majority of material produced in the Hollywood machine.  The frustration with "bad" cinema became a search for "so bad it's good" cinema.

But, as Sconce writes, disappointment is never too far away, even if we are actively searching out movies that are cringe-inducing sub-par.  After all, how could a film with the title of Satan's Cheerleaders (the poster for which adorns the cover of Sleaze Artists) ever live up to the expectations encouraged by its title?  Ditto for Zombie Holocaust;  Santa Claus Conquers the MartiansTwo Thousand Maniacs! or Nude for Satan.  Could Death Bed:  The Bed That Eats ever be as good as it sounds?

It would be easy to conclude that the cinema described in Sleaze Artists is no longer on the cultural margins, but has now firmly entered the mainstream.  Quentin Tarantino and Robert Rodriquez self-consciously replicated the underground aesthetic in Grindhouse -- their double billed feature which included a road revenge flick Death Proof and the Texas zombie homage Planet Terror.  The video store clerk, proudly schooled in the most obscure exploitation and horror films, is a nearly extinct cliche;  displaced by online forums dedicated to bad cinema and the steady archiving of cinema's miscellany onto DVD.

And our relationship with underground films has even changed in the meantime.  In the early 1990s, the American television show Mystery Science Theater 3000 specialised in uncovering some of these B-grade science fiction films and subjecting them to relentless ridicule.  Nearly two decades later, our response to yesterday's cultural leftovers is less likely to be ridicule than ironic respect.  Not just the high-profile self conscious mimicking of Tarantino, but scores of films are released each year that resurrect themes and techniques of the underground.  The famously dated zoom shot was once an amusing anachronism, but it now appears in many contemporary productions with barely a hint of irony.  Contemporary horror franchises like Saw and Hostel which feature extended torture scenes are nearly indistinguishable from the video nasties popular two decades ago, although more professionally produced.

The English Conservative MP Charles Walker described 2007's Hostel II not inaccurately when he said that "from beginning to end, it depicts obscene, misogynistic acts of brutality against women -- an hour and a half of brutality";  a description which could just as easily apply to a Doris Wishman film.  Grindhouse cinemas may have closed down and videos been replaced by DVDs and internet file-sharing, but movies whose first priority is to shock are shown in chain theatres across the globe, not in small off-Broadway adults only theatres.

But standards have changed.  Modern audiences may accept -- it would be inaccurate to write "are comfortable with" -- special effects depictions of sadistic violence at the cinema but they would not accept the very real slaughter of a very real turtle, as occurs in Cannibal Holocaust.  Similarly the masochistic brutality seen in the video nasties are absent in modern homages to exploitation.  Even the semi-pornographic undressing scenes which were awkwardly squeezed into the typical underground 1970s horror film have no contemporary equivalent.  The moral content of mainstream exploitation in the twenty-first century and postwar underground exploitation may seem superficially similar, but there are major differences;  there are new ethical and moral lines which modern filmmakers do not cross.

For these reasons, it is important to avoid the typical conservative reaction to seemingly immoral -- or disconcertingly amoral -- culture.  It is certainly not clear that the mainstreaming of trash is a sign of a cultural decay.  Highbrow cultural production exists comfortably beside trash, and more often than not they share the same audiences.  Furthermore, there exists no convincing argument that immorality and criminality at the movies transposes to immorality and criminality in the real world.  For the most part, violent crime is in decline across the western world.

Filmgoers are not that easily influenced.  Individuals who watch the movies invariably apply their own moral standards to the movies, rather than the movies imposing morality upon viewers.

Jeffrey Sconce's final essay may be melancholic, but it is not uniformly negative about the film industry.  And the dominant emotion after having read Sleaze Artists isn't one of regret for the decline of moral standards.  The underground can certainly be ugly, but it is vibrant.  For every Oscar winner, there are one hundred middle brow romantic comedies, and ten Nude for Satans.  If we ignore our cultural trash, we ignore a large part of our culture.

Sunday, June 29, 2008

Cost of carbon cuts hidden in dark plume

REDUCING emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) presents the most difficult and costly task Australia has contemplated.

Most CO2 is a by-product of fossil fuels -- coal, oil and gas.

Next week Ross Garnaut's climate change review is to deliver a draft report to the Federal Government.

The review's initial papers favour forcing lower emissions of CO2 and other "greenhouse gases" using an auction-based tax.  This would allow the creation of tradeable carbon credits.  Garnaut opposes any free allocations to major existing energy producers.

The review recognises that reducing emissions means higher electricity prices.  One proposal is a get-out-of-jail-free card to reimburse "trade-exposed sectors" like aluminium smelters.  But this, like suggestions to exclude petrol, means other users pay more.

It is pointless to introduce an Australian carbon tax unless every country has a similar imposition.  Without that, industries discharging high levels of CO2 would simply shift to countries with zero or low taxes.

Any international agreement would entail all countries being granted equal emissions per head of population.  To stabilise world emissions means adopting the world average of 4.5 tonnes of CO2 per head.  Australia produces almost four times that much due to our prosperity and huge resource base.

It is virtually impossible to estimate the economic effect of measures that force lower CO2 emissions.

We can confidently predict outcomes from taxes designed to bring about minor changes in supply of non-essential goods.  However, we are in uncharted waters in quantifying the costs of major reductions in carbon emissions.

This is because carbon emissions are intrinsic to energy production from fossil fuels, which are the backbone of our electricity supply and transport systems.  Nuclear power aside, no known technology can replace fossil fuels except at the margin.  And nuclear power was not even mentioned in the initial Garnaut Review papers.

Access Economics (AE) has analysed Australia's energy and income interactions in an attempt to estimate the costs of reducing CO2 emissions.  AE examined reducing CO2 by 11 per cent in 2020 -- an ask that's far short of the 70 per cent reduction necessary for CO2 stabilisation at 4.5 tonnes per head.

AE's calculations used conservative assumptions, including a highly optimistic substitution of coal-based power by solar and wind.  These assumptions allowed a forecast of the electricity price increase of only 18 per cent.  Even so, they put the annual costs to the economy of this very limited step to reduce emissions at $18 billion -- almost $1000 per person.

Victoria faces a magnification of these costs.  Because the state's power supply is centred on brown coal, the tax rate necessary to bring about reduced emission levels hits Victoria with a higher cost.  A carbon tax means Victorian electricity suppliers pay 40 per cent more tax than those north of the Murray.

Outcomes of the impending new carbon regime are becoming evident.

Among these is the dismantling of the Latrobe Valley power industry.

Initial steps towards this are under way, with contracts for electricity beyond mid-2010 drying up.

This prevents any new investment and, if the process continues, will be followed by plant closures.


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