Tuesday, December 22, 2009

Rudd Leaves Denmark with a Rotten Deal

To secure a Copenhagen Accord Kevin Rudd sold out Australia's long-term negotiating interests and accepted the full cost of any future climate change agreement.

During the Copenhagen conference the Prime Minister claimed "if every country pulls its weight we can secure the agreement which we need in Australia's national interest".

But that isn't what the accord delivers.  Instead, countries such as Australia offered all their bargaining chips to get China and India to commit to an agreement that obliges them to offer nothing in return.

And now that the accord has failed to attract the consensus required for it to be formally adopted as a decision of the conference, the Prime Minister has committed us to a worthless agreement while declaring that Australia is prepared to put all its bargaining chips on the table.

Meanwhile, developing countries have kept all their chips to play with at the next scheduled negotiating round.  You need only to look at the record.

Before departing for Copenhagen, India's Environment Minister Jairam Ramesh stated in a parliamentary speech that he would support only a flexible agreement.  India was adamantly opposed to two points:  "legally binding emission reduction cut[s]" for developing countries and any requirement they "announce when their emissions will peak".

Sure enough, in the accord India avoided requirements for developing countries to nominate when their emissions would peak.  They'll need only to declare their emission reduction policies.

Throughout negotiations China opposed being held to the same standard as developed countries for international measuring, reporting and verification of their domestically funded emissions reduction programs.  Under the accord the Chinese are required only to have international assessment for programs funded by other governments or international finance pools.

African countries and small island states wanted financing for a mitigation and adaptation fund to address a changing climate and they secured $US30 billion ($33bn) from developed countries for the next three years with a goal for $100bn a year by 2020.

Developing countries should have secured concessions from the agreement because they have a right to develop their economies with less onerous climate mitigation obligations than rich countries.  But in the face of being offered nothing in return, Australia, the US and Europe shouldn't have bet the farm.

Since the conference, Rudd has declared he will announce Australia's emissions reduction target in February, but according to an early leaked draft accord he appears to have offered Australia's full emissions reduction target of up to 15 per cent, regardless of what other countries do, and 25 per cent if other countries take comparable action.

These offers are between three and five times higher than the targets flagged in Rudd's twice-failed emissions trading scheme legislation.  Had Rudd passed the ETS before Copenhagen, he would have misled the public in supporting his scheme without it knowing the true cost.

By comparison, the US succeeded in securing a concession to avoid a universal binding emissions reduction target.

Instead, the US will be required only to nominate its target.  And according to the same early leaked draft accord the US will have its emissions baseline year set at 2005.  Canada's will be 2006.  In doing so, both countries will not be expected to make the additional deep emissions cuts that they would have had they adopted the Kyoto 1990 baseline year.

The leaked draft gives Australia's baseline year as 2000, but this is no concession because emissions in that year were little different from 1990 levels.

The accord also leaves Australia exposed to the prospect of "alternative sources of finance" being introduced to support developing countries, which may include a new international travel and shipping tax.

Such a tax would hit hardest economies, such as Australia's, that are geographically isolated and trade-dependent.

The result would undermine our export competitiveness.

Faced with such a burdensome deal, contrary to Australia's national interest, Rudd should have walked away from the Copenhagen Accord.

But, politically, he couldn't.  To bolster his domestic policy case for an ETS, he had insisted for months that an agreement at Copenhagen would be achieved.

Immediately after the accord was struck, leaders began to spin their failure, with US President Barack Obama, declaring it a "meaningful and unprecedented breakthrough".

Rudd was more sober, arguing "much more work remains to be done" and saying the agreement was better than a "catastrophic collapse".

But for Australia it was a worse outcome because we're now committed to the full cost of the Copenhagen Accord without having extracted any meaningful concessions to blunt the pain it will inflict.


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Monday, December 21, 2009

The road after Copenhagen

The accord from the Copenhagen climate change conference wasn't the result of a negotiation, but unidirectional concessions by developed countries to developing ones to support an agreement that obliged the latter to offer nothing in return.

Consider the scorecard.

Before departing for Copenhagen, India's minister of state for environment Jairam Ramesh stated in a speech to Parliament that he only wanted a "flexible" agreement, with non-negotiable positions on "legally binding emission reduction cut(s)" for developing countries and requiring them to "announce when their emissions will peak".  And in the Copenhagen Accord, India secured recognition that a developing country's emissions would only peak at some point in the future and an obligation to declare what emissions reduction actions it will take.

Throughout negotiations, China opposed being held to the same standard as developed countries for international measuring, reporting and verification of its domestically funded emissions reduction programmes.  And under the accord, India and China are only required to have international assessment for programmes funded by other governments or international finance pools.

Coming to the conference, African countries and the island states wanted financing for a mitigation and adaptation fund.  And in the accord, developing countries secured a $30 billion fund from developed countries for the next three years, with a goal of a further $100 billion a year by 2020.

By comparison, the US succeeded in securing a concession to "commit to implement ... economy-wide emissions targets" rather than being bound through a Kyoto Protocol model that it didn't want.  It also secured acceptance to increase its emissions baseline year to 2005, as did Canada to 2006-meaning emissions reductions would be less than in Europe which has a 1990 baseline year.

The US concessions were as much from Europe as developing countries.  As a consequence of giving up so little in these negotiations, developing countries have succeeded in keeping all their leveraging power available for the next scheduled mid-year negotiating round in Bonn and the next major conference in Mexico City at the end of 2010.

A challenge for the Mexico negotiations is to avoid repeating the hyped ambitions of Copenhagen.  The silver lining;  the separation between the perception and the reality of what Copenhagen could deliver was largely built on government "spin" to secure public support for domestic climate change policies.  Such spin cannot be credibly repeated in 2010.  And while Copenhagen was considered as a deadline after the 2007 Bali summit, the Copenhagen Accord deliberately excludes any such timeline impositions for the next negotiations.

Still, the problem last weekend-one the negotiations next year will also face-is achieving even the slightest consensus.  The near-collapse of negotiations at Copenhagen should not have come as a surprise because the Bali summit that led to these negotiations didn't even agree to the commencement of a new international treaty.  Instead, the negotiating road map supported the vaguest diplomatic "agreed outcome ... (for) a shared vision for long-term cooperative action".

Following the accord's announcement, the text has already been universally condemned for not doing enough to cut global emissions.  And the accord clearly has many problems.

For example, the accord doesn't include any comprehensive proposals on how to facilitate and promote the transfer of climate-friendly technologies beyond the establishment of mitigation and adaptation financing pools funded by developed countries.  How these finance pools will be funded is also left open, with proposals still on the table.

The accord also ran into other major barriers.  For instance, on Saturday morning (the conference's "overtime"), a bloc comprising governments from Africa, as well as South and Central America, objected to its proposition and ensured the consensus necessary for its adoption was lacking.  As a consequence of all this, the accord is now a meaningless footnote to the conference and carries no diplomatic weight.

Instead, it is being considered merely as the basis for future negotiations.  But if countries want to negotiate an agreement built on the weak architecture they now have for a future climate change deal, they would be better off revisiting whether the United Nations (UN) system is even capable of delivering on their lofty ambitions.

Given such ambitions, the process might just be doomed.  To secure the sort of climate change agreement that brings in all the countries of the world would be the most ambitious ever negotiated through the UN system and would impact every aspect of society and the economy it covered.  It would be even more ambitious than the agreements under the World Trade Organization (WTO)-the only agreements comparable in scope and ambition-but unlike other multilateral institutions, WTO happens to function outside the ambit of the UN, that too with its own dispute settlement and enforcement mechanisms.

As a consequence, countries will always be reticent to commit to a treaty with deep obligations, especially when there are currently no options for recourse if they are not enforced.

Saturday, December 19, 2009

Give or take a million, there's nothing to fear

The Australian population might reach 35 million in 2050, according to Treasury's latest intergenerational report.

Seems like a lot?  Relax.  That would make us just slightly more populated than Canada.  This horrible possibility (As many people as Canada.  Canada!  Can you imagine it?) has been greeted with some angst.

In a speech in October, the Treasury secretary, Ken Henry, asked what seems like an obvious question:  where will these 13 million extra people live?  Clearly we haven't got around to building their houses yet.

Every time we talk about population growth, we seem to have this same fear:  Australia doesn't have the infrastructure.  It doesn't have enough roads, public transport, and council swimming pools to cope.

But from a historical perspective, these concerns are pretty silly.  Infrastructure development doesn't pre-empt population growth, it follows.  People build stuff when they need it.

Sydney's population jumped from about 40,000 in 1850 to having 482,000 inhabitants at Federation.

That's a growth of more than 1000 per cent in 50 years.  But you'd have looked pretty stupid raving about the desperate need to control Sydney's growth back then.

By contrast, the Treasury secretary asked how Sydney will cope with just a 54 per cent increase in the next 40 years.  And deeply serious commentators shook their heads and stroked their beards and pontificated on the "challenges" of the future.  Where will the train networks go?  What sort of jobs will these new folks want?  (I suspect robot repair, flying car maintenance, singularity co-ordination;  you know, things like that.)

It must seem hard to imagine how the human race will cope with the growth of the future.  But anti-population activists have been preaching doom for two centuries.  We've always done fine.  If you think this time is different, you need to ask yourself one question:  why has everybody in the past been wrong?

My point isn't to play down the tasks which will have to be completed if Australia is going to service the needs of all these new people.  Stuff will need to be built, and some of that stuff will need to be built by government.

So it's good that there will be 13 million new taxpayers around.

But anti-development lobbyists and activists are a big problem.  Urban growth boundaries have to be extended and restrictions on development in inner urban areas relaxed.

Population growth requires governments that are willing to build needed infrastructure -- governments which are able to stand up to those who don't want infrastructure built in their backyards, and to those who don't want people to have backyards at all.  Right now, it seems that state governments are leaning on population concerns to avoid taking the blame for failing to do their jobs.

Nevertheless, the anti-population crowd is a pretty diverse bunch.  Maybe you shouldn't be judged by the company you keep, but they're not all very sensible.

A federal Labor backbencher, Kelvin Thomson, responded to the population projections by saying that growth would lead to "global warming, the food crisis, water shortages, housing [un]affordability, the fisheries collapse, species extinctions, increasing prices, waste and terrorism."

But we've had war, inflation, busy cities and expensive houses for pretty much ever.  Dare I say that, even if the global population "stabilises", they won't stop.

And Kevin Andrews took the opportunity to urge the Government to slash immigration for the sake of population.  Still, Andrews also wants to raise Australia's birthrate "back to replacement levels", so his concerns may be less about sustainability, and more about foreigners.

Those who oppose population growth because of environmental concerns are the most radical.  Earlier this year the head of Sustainable Population Australia said Australia should adopt a one-child policy -- you know, one like they have in the People's Republic of China.

Anti-population activists believe that we should get rid of things like the baby bonus, but also have the government actively discourage us -- even force us -- from making too many babies.

This view is anti-human in the most basic sense.  One of our most basic instincts is breeding.  Declaring you want to regulate this instinct away is declaring you are against the selfish gene:  the basic foundation of life.

Should we have a "population policy" at all?  The only people asking for one seem to be those who want to cut it back or slow it down.  Those who believe that humanity should keep exploring, discovering, creating, inventing and expanding don't really feel the need.

Kevin Rudd responded to the population projections by saying that he believes in a "big Australia", and (of course) "makes no apology for that".  The Prime Minister is right.  An Australia of 35 million people sounds like a lot.  But it's nothing to fear.


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Friday, December 18, 2009

Filter our freedom of speech right

The new mandatory filtering regime proposed by the Government is the kind of election pledge most wish the Government would just forget about.

It goes without saying that child pornography is a disgusting, horrific and detestable crime.  This is why the Government is masking a mass online censorship program as a debate on child porn.

Communications Minister Stephen Conroy has repeatedly said that "if people equate freedom of speech with watching child pornography, then the Rudd-Labor Government is going to disagree".

The Punch:  The time has come for an Internet Bill Of Rights

But this is not about child pornography.  There is no evidence the filter will halt the distribution of child pornography.  No filtering system has ever proved impenetrable.

Paedophilic material will still be accessible to the determined criminal -- but the proposed filter will also block sites that have nothing to do with child pornography.

The proposed legislative amendments to the Broadcasting Services Act will require all Internet Service Providers to block Refused Classification content materials.  Most material that has been refused classification is not actually illegal to possess or access.

Although RC content includes child pornography material it also includes content that has nothing to do with child pornography.  Some examples of RC range from content involving fetish activity between consenting adults to images demonstrating safe drug use and even certain video games.

Implementing such a filter is also highly problematic.  A mandatory internet filter will slow our internet.

The Government's claim that the online filter will have "negligible" impact on internet performance is unfounded.

The report on the Government's trial of internet filtering provides no data which verifies the claim that the online filter will not slow internet performance.  In fact, those well versed in net tech insist that it is impossible for a filter not to slow internet operations.

Depending on how it is implemented, the proposed internet filter might also accidentally block a lot more web pages than it is intended to.  This could lead to some extensive, if unintended, censorship.

There are more than 1 trillion web pages on the internet.  If 2.44 per cent are blocked -- and that's the percentage of sites that even the best filters unintentionally cut -- it will mean the loss of 24 billion sites.

But the biggest problem is that the proposed legislation threatens to seriously impinge on our freedom of communication.

A mandatory online censorship program is incompatible with a liberal democratic society.  It is unlikely that censorship legislation like the one proposed here could be enacted in countries such as Canada or the United States -- such enactments would greatly impinge on the freedom of communication of the individual, contrary to guaranteed constitutional rights.

The details of the Government's internet filter still aren't clear.  We will apparently be seeing legislation introduced early next year.

But what we do know is that the current regime will limit free speech.  We would only ever accept such a limitation of liberty if there was something substantial to gain.

Here, clearly there is no such gain.

Thursday, December 17, 2009

A patent Copenhagen solution

India's negotiating position on intellectual property (IP) at the Copenhagen climate change conference might be good politics, but it's unlikely to help developing countries cut their emissions.

Many key negotiating deadlocks at Copenhagen are focused on classic attitudinal divides between North -- meaning developed -- and South -- meaning developing -- countries;  and none more so than over access to climate-friendly technologies.

As a South country, India has sought inclusion into the negotiating text on how to boost the transfer of climate-friendly technologies through the removal of IP rights, principally patents, on climate-friendly technologies, many of which are owned by US and European companies.

Working with Bangladesh, Bolivia and Ghana, India is complaining about its obligations under the World Trade Organisation's (WTO) IP treaty-called the Agreement on Trade Related Aspects of Intellectual Property Rights, or TRIPS.  These obligations that are claimed to increase the price and to cut access to essential medicines are also stopping access to affordable climate-friendly technologies.

Last Wednesday's negotiating text included flexibility for countries to ignore IP rights that would prevent countries "from taking any measures to address adaptation or mitigation of climate change ... and (the) transfer of, and access to, environmentally sound technologies and know-how".  The text also proposed the establishment of a global technology pool that would grant access to royalty-free patented technologies and would also "revoke" existing patents on these technologies.

One of the reasons technology access is such a sore negotiating point is because, in the words of Ajay Mathur, director of India's Bureau of Energy Efficiency, "technology is the only way" developing countries can afford to cut their emissions.  But concerns about patents on access to climate-friendly technologies are built on false foundations -- they're radically different technologies to medicines.

We know the patent premium on medicines makes up a significant portion of the final price because the cost of initial research protected by patents is large and the physical manufacture cost, the marginal price, is small.  Medicines are also built on single-compound patented technology that often turns the exclusive right a patent confers into a near-monopoly, because of the lack of competition from other products that can provide the same therapeutic outcome.

But in the case of climate-friendly technologies, the physical cost and tacit knowledge in manufacture and deployment make up the vast majority of the final product's cost.  And because there is significant inter- and intra-product competition, the leveraging capacity of a patent is modest.  The business reality is that if a wind turbine manufacturer sells an expensive product there are plenty of other competitor technologies in the marketplace, as well as other wind turbine manufacturers, to keep the price down.  And those were the personal conclusions of former Indian TRIPS negotiator, Jayashree Watal, at a symposium jointly organised by the University of Copenhagen and WTO last weekend, who pointed out the ineffectiveness of the comparison between medicines and climate-friendly technologies.

Lingering behind complaints about patents is the perception that buying these technologies will result in a boon for developed country companies at the expense of the world's poor.  But a March study by Copenhagen Economics, a consultancy, found that from more than 200,000 patents sampled, only 0.1% was registered in the lower-income developing countries-suggesting that the developed world is essential for these patents.  So it's widely accepted in Copenhagen that access to these technologies is essential, but developing countries can take action closer to home to promote technological diffusion.

Yet, a 2007 World Bank report found that tariff and non-tariff barriers on low-carbon technologies in the top 18 greenhouse-gas emitting developing countries can be as high as 165%.  India's barriers on fluorescent lamps alone amount to 117%.  The extent of trade barriers on environmental goods and services in rich and poor countries alike has prompted discussions about a new international trade agreement to seek their removal.

Removing patents is also likely to disincentivise patent holders from licensing their technologies into developing country markets.  And if they don't do so, developing countries will only delay the development of their own domestic manufacturing and skills capacity to manufacture their own technologies and diffuse them.

All this is important because, in the face of steep and costly carbon emissions cuts, developing countries will need next-generation technologies to make the cost of mitigation and adaptation affordable.  But without patents, innovators will be reticent to make the financial commitment necessary for the innovation of climate-friendly technologies, let alone their deployment in the developing country markets that need them.

For now the proposals seem back off the table, but if India insists on the inclusion of anti-IP text in a final Copenhagen agreement, it may win a political victory.  Still, it'll come at the expense of developing the most cost-effective way to cut emissions.

Tuesday, December 15, 2009

Debunking the Mummy Party vs Daddy Party theory of politics

It might not seem like it right now, but there's more to Australian politics than emissions trading schemes and "climate action".

On the day after Tony Abbott defeated Malcolm Turnbull, one newspaper reported a punter saying the new opposition leader would be "alright, provided he does something about education, health and more police".

Problem is:  none of these are federal government responsibilities.

A cliché of Australian politics is that the Liberal Party is supposed to do better at a federal level than the ALP, because federal policy areas play to its strengths -- the economy, defense, and border security.  And Labor is supposed to do better in the states, because that's where the responsibility for social policy lies, most notably health and education.

This is the "Mummy Party, Daddy Party" theory of Australian politics.

But many of the most interesting and innovative potential policy ideas the Coalition could readily adopt aren't federal issues.  They're state ones.

Education vouchers, for example, would be a genuine education revolution.  Vouchers would completely decouple the public funding of education from the public provision of education, giving students and parents the inestimable benefits of choice, efficiency and quality improvement.

Similarly, local community control of hospitals would really mix things up, but again, like education, health is supposed to be a state responsibility.

All this makes it more egregious that the Coalition's state counterparts are struggling to differentiate themselves from the governments they are trying to oppose.

Federally, the choice for Liberal policymakers is therefore to either abandon one of their fundamental principles -- federalism and the respect for Australia's constitutional system -- or leave these policy innovations to the states.

The Howard Government chose the former, culminating in the Commonwealth takeover of Mersey Hospital in 2007.  The government's aim for Mersey was laudable.  Once Canberra took control, the hospital would actually be run by a local community trust.

Tony Abbott was of course the Minister who oversaw this, and in his book Battlelines he provides a defense of centralisation while proclaiming he'd like to do a hell of a lot more of it.

But the biggest problem with the Howard/Abbott approach to federalism is that it can backfire, and backfire badly.  You might institute the most freedom-focused, liberal policy reform imaginable, but the next mob might have different ideas.

Take WorkChoices.  It ended up being a dog of a piece of legislation, but the original intent of WorkChoices was to liberalise Australian workplaces.  The only way the federal government could achieve that goal was by having Canberra assume responsibility for industrial relations.

All well and good -- until you lose an election.  Then you have to the pass the reins of government over to those who have sworn to reregulate the labour market, and now have the power to do so on a national level, all thanks to you.

Few voters know or care about which policy areas are the responsibility of which level of government.  Local campaigns for federal seats often deal with comically petty issues.

In the recent federal by-election in Higgins, the Liberal candidate argued that the Ashburton police station was undermanned, and that Chapel Street should have more CCTV cameras.

It's not their fault.  Everyone in the federal parliament has, at one time, campaigned on issues which they have absolutely no control over.  Voters seem to demand it -- a young politician might want to talk about foreign policy and ballooning government debt, but a lot of people just want to hear about graffiti and street signs.

Nevertheless, the widespread lack of interest in Australian Constitution's divisions of power does create a problem for the Coalition.  At the federal level, it has to decide whether to trade away its commitment to federalism for the opportunity to push liberal reform.

Tony Abbott made this deal with the devil a long time ago.

But, in a strange way, the disregard Abbott has for the niceties of Australian federalism is the fault of his state colleagues.  The centre-right has genuinely innovative policy prescriptions ready for advocacy and implementation.

But state Liberal oppositions have been extremely risk averse.  State politicians wouldn't propose a policy anywhere near as radical as Abbott's local control of hospitals.

Right now, the "small target" strategy adopted by many state oppositions seems a lot better than the "colossal flashing neon target" strategy of the federal opposition.

Election after election has shown that just because a state government is demonstrably incompetent, that's no guarantee voters will turn to the opposition for relief.

State oppositions are going to have to embrace innovative reform in health and education, at least if they want to present an alternative to ALP governments.

Australia has experienced two decades of federal reform and policy innovation.  If the Liberal Party is going to lead the next reform movement, it will probably have to do so in the states.


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Monday, December 14, 2009

It's the Poor Who'll Pay for Copenhagen's Circus

More people attend UN conferences than make a meaningful contribution, but even by UN standards delegates are describing the Copenhagen climate conference as a circus.

Twenty-odd thousand green activists predominantly from developed countries are overwhelming the 8000 government officials and demanding meetings with delegations so they can push their proposals into any final agreement.

A handful of green, anti-capitalist activists has even infiltrated official negotiations and are representing countries in some negotiating streams.

While public attention is focused on debates about emissions reduction targets and peak emissions years, it is in second-tier negotiations that green groups are having the greatest influence.

A motley crew of negotiators representing Bangladesh, Bolivia, Ghana and India have put into technology transfer negotiating texts the scrapping of intellectual property rights necessary to attract private investment in the development of climate-friendly technologies that are needed to cut emissions.

In deforestation discussions, greens are attempting to limit developing country conversion of forest lands to agriculture use that could achieve the dual purpose of carbon sequestration and poverty alleviation.  And when they're not thrusting themselves into negotiations they're providing spectacles for the media such as last week's Greenpeace resuscitation of a giant inflatable globe dying from a high temperature.

The solution was for some activists dressed up as doctors to give needles to the globe injected with "adaptation finance", "technology transfer" and "political will" wrapped up with some "international binding" in the form of bandages.

On Tuesday an "angry mermaid" will award a business group the honour of being the most aggressive at "lobbying to block effective action to tackle the (climate change) problem".

But if there are businesses trying to stop an agreement they're being awfully quiet.

Text book multilateral institution conferences generally involve governments wanting negotiations to head in one direction, business in another and non-government organisations in a third.

But in the Copenhagen conference all are swimming up the same stream because climate change provides the perfect marriage of the interests of big, green, non-governmental organisations, big government and big business.

Over the weekend that bridged the fortnight's negotiations, the Confederation of Danish Industry organised the Bright Green Expo that includes a trade show for companies to spruik their technology to reduce emissions.

Wind farm manufacturers Vestas and Siemens have advertised in train stations used by the delegates to get to the conference centre.

Big business isn't fighting an agreement, it's trying to find ways to explain why they are part of the climate solution so they can coax governments to regulate in their interests and attract subsidies for otherwise unviable commercial products.

Not that big government minds because they can use climate change as an excuse to rein in the free hand of private enterprise and swell bureaucracy.

The fact that the Australian government has 114 registered delegates, exceeding the size of India and Britain's delegations, shows the bureaucratic regulatory threat of a Copenhagen agreement and policy instruments like an emissions trading scheme.

The biggest opponents of a broad, sweeping international agreement aren't business but poor countries because they know they cannot afford the green man's burden.

It is why attempts to get the Indian and Chinese governments to take on significant emissions reduction targets will fail because there's no choice between two weeks of criticism from the 20-strong Australian Youth Climate Coalition delegates, against a lifetime of criticism from the billions of people who have to live with the consequences.

The tragedy of Copenhagen is that the impact of any agreement on the world's poor has largely been lost among the self-indulgent circus caused by rich country green activists who'd rather see themselves on television back home.

Not that it should be a surprise.  By comparison to the 21,000 Copenhagen observers, last week's comparable World Trade Organisation Ministerial Conference in Geneva only attracted 500 observers who were broadly committed to securing an inter-national trade deal to promote poverty-alleviating free trade.

The irony is that if there were as many people who cared about cutting poverty, the world's poor would be better able to adapt to the consequences of climate change and there'd also be the economic resources to cut emissions and deliver a binding agreement at Copenhagen.


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Copenhagen Summit And World Trade

Any agreement from the Copenhagen climate change conference is likely to amplify the "green" threat to wealth-creating free trade that is necessary to cut global carbon emissions.

Despite the media hype there are still strong barriers to securing a Copenhagen deal.

There is little convergence in negotiating positions with Europe seeking binding emissions reduction targets, America wanting scheduled commitments of unilateral action, the developing world expecting rich countries to do most of the lifting, and the oil-rich Gulf States who want the CRU "climategate" leaked emails and data investigated before a deal is done.

But irrespective of negotiations positions, so long as individual countries introduce a carbon price signal like Europe has through its emissions trading scheme, and Australia, the United States and Canada may, the political pressure to introduce carbon trade barriers to "level the playing field" against imports will increase.

Free trade is necessary to drive emissions reductions because it increases the most efficient use of scarce resources by encouraging countries to leverage their comparative advantages.

Free trade will also deliver the investment necessary to innovate emissions-cutting technologies and ensure their diffusion.

Wealth-creating free trade also cuts poverty improving the economic capacity of developing countries to take care of the global environment.

But the first sign of climate-protectionism has already been introduced in the EU against imported biofuels made from agriculture crops that don't reduce emissions enough against fossil fuels, like palm oil-sourced biofuels.

And the Copenhagen negotiating text includes proposals for waiving intellectual property rights on technologies that would assist in reducing emissions and adapting to climate change.

But the biggest threat is the looming introduction of carbon tariffs on imports to offset the cost of imposing a domestic carbon price signal.

The Waxman-Markey Bill to establish an American cap-and-trade scheme includes such a tariff.

US Senate Finance Committee Chairman, Max Baucas, has argued that these tariffs are necessary "to prevent the carbon leakage that would occur if US manufacturing shifts to countries without effective climate change programs".

Similar proposals are also being considered by the European Union supported by French President, Nicolas Sarkozy.

Carbon tariffs are also being proposed in the hope that they will countries in the developing world to adopt their own carbon price signal on production rather than face discrimination against their imports.

But the cost of carbon tariffs will vastly outweigh their benefits.

Carbon tariffs are expensive to practically implement.  Applying them in a non-discriminatory way would require the carbon-intensity of each product to be assessed despite the intensity varying from country to country.

And for products that include components from multiple countries such as electronics, each component's carbon intensity would need to be assessed.

To do so an army of global carbon auditors would need to be employed to assess the carbon content of products with the cost ultimately passed onto consumers and business.

Carbon tariffs will not even achieve their stated goal.  Instead they will harm the same industries they seek to protect by increasing the cost of imported inputs into manufactures and consequently reducing the competitiveness of these industries to export.

And their cost will be considerable.  Based on my calculations a tariff for carbon-intensive imports into the US will need to be set at more than ten per cent to offset the potential cost of a cap-and-trade scheme.

But most the most concerning element of carbon tariffs are that they will undermine the credibility of the international trading system itself.

Under current World Trade Organisation rules carbon tariffs are likely to violate requirements for countries to provide equivalent treatment to all imports and domestically produced goods once they have passed the border.

To avoid these violations a new agreement to manage trade and climate change would have to be successfully negotiated.

But with outcomes in the WTO secured by consensus it is unlikely such an agreement can be secured.  And to do so a terrible precedent would be set by establishing new WTO-sanctioned protectionism.

But without such an agreement the multilateral trading system countries would have to openly flout their WTO obligation and the risk of a climate-induced trade war will become a reality.

Last week a WTO Ministerial was held in Geneva.  In his closing statement Chilean Finance Minister, Andrés Velasco, argued that a key contribution of the WTO to reducing global carbon emissions can be "through removing barriers to trade in environmental goods and services".

But instead the threat is that many countries are following the path of WTO Director General, Pascal Lamy, who stated recently on the relationship between trade and climate change that the focus should be "climate first, and trade second".

It needn't be the case.

The likelihood of an overall agreement at Copenhagen appears slim, but countries can recognise that tackling climate change and cutting emissions are mutually supportive and oppose the introduction of new climate protectionism.

Saturday, December 12, 2009

Small government does not mean cheap

If you ever want to feel generous, have a flick through the recent press releases of the Commonwealth's Department of Innovation, Industry, Science and Research.

You may not realise it but you recently purchased a low thermal mass kiln and waste heat dryer, and you kindly gave it to a company called Lincoln Brickworks in Wingham.  It cost just over $300,000.

You also purchased an anaerobic digester, a new distillation column, a reverse osmosis plant and heat pump heating system, and a transcritical refrigeration system.  These were wrapped up and shipped off to a few more lucky companies.  You also helped a firm called Norvic Food automate its meat-processing line, which is probably much more violent than it sounds.

That's how the Commonwealth Government handed out $3 million for the fourth round of a program called Re-tooling for Climate Change.  Sounds like a worthy cause?  Maybe.  But there are 100,000 manufacturing companies in Australia.  And less than 0.04 per cent of those will get any benefit from these grants.  The Re-tooling for Climate Change program is not going to make much of a dent in Australia's greenhouse gas emissions.

One might even say the program is an extraordinary waste of money.

We all like to imagine the tax we pay only goes towards nice things.  You know, things like teachers, judges, doctors and the maintenance of public parks.  But let's face the harsh truth.  The Commonwealth Government spends one quarter of our total gross domestic product.  And it fritters away a hell of a lot of it.

Take the $20 million we're handing to a public relations firm to rebrand the entire country.  Launching Building Brand Australia, the Trade Minister, Simon Crean, said:  "We must find a better way to define our identity."

No doubt the specifics will be nutted out over a series of long lunches, with many scoping documents and research papers exchanged.  And if we're lucky, it'll end up being another government ad campaign.  Sometimes it seems as if politicians only spend taxpayers' money to see what colour it makes when it burns.

Both sides of politics are to blame for our massively bloated government.  In his first few years as prime minister, John Howard made a valiant attempt to cut back some of the excessive spending of the Keating years.

But by the early 2000s, his government was accumulating policies, initiatives, programs, and, of course, public servants, with the gleeful enthusiasm you expect from conservatives who have made their peace with taxing and spending.  In his speech launching his 2004 election campaign, Howard reportedly made spending promises at a rate of $94 million a minute.

But Kevin Rudd was elected vowing to reverse the extravagance of the Howard years, and, endearingly, to "take a meat axe" to the public sector.

Since 2007, the Rudd Government has hired another 7000 bureaucrats.

Kevin Rudd wants his 19 cabinet ministers to fix obesity, deliver broadband, halt climate change, spark innovation, hide internet porn, end cigarette smoking, abolish nuclear weapons and make petrol cheaper.

In October, it even released a Proposed National Strategy on Body Image.  Such national strategies don't write themselves of course, so the government instituted a National Advisory Group on Body Image.

We have government-funded industry innovation councils because politicians presume that industry wouldn't be able to innovate without their help.  We have the politicians handing out "community leadership awards" because, as we all know, people won't help their communities if there aren't prizes.

The report of the Government 2.0 Taskforce, released this week, wondered why "none of the major public goods of Web 2.0 have been built by governments".  The founders of Twitter and Facebook didn't rely on government funding.  The task force's confusion is apparent:  don't all good things require tax dollars?

But when you try to do everything, it's hard to do anything well.  In October, we gave $40 million to Australia's space program.  Did you even know Australia had a space program?

In a speech in late November, the Secretary of the Treasury, Ken Henry, argued that Australia will probably never have a smaller government than it does now.

It's important to realise that a small government doesn't necessarily mean a cheap government.

We want to pay top dollar for the best public school teachers, the best doctors and nurses, the best courts, and the best law enforcement.

We're failing this basic test.  Our governments do a lot of things and do them as cheaply as they can get away with.

Still, Henry is right.  Maybe Australia's government will never be smaller.  But could we at least try to make a little more focused?


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Interference getting worse instead of better

Wouldn't it be wonderful to have a month without new government initiatives?

This week saw a meeting in Brisbane of the Council of Australian Governments (COAG).  Chaired by the Prime Minister, the meeting was attended by state premiers and treasurers.

The outcome was a galaxy of new programs designed to pick consumers' pockets and to increase our discomfort with extra red tape.

Among the new measures is a grandly named National Quality Agenda for Early Childhood Education and Care.

Basically this introduces new regulations to require increased staffing at child care centres and greater education for child carers.

These "reforms" translate into higher costs for working families for negligible benefits.

But, not to worry, "responding to stakeholder concerns", the implementation of the costly new initiative is to be phased in over two years!

Enhanced child care regulations reflect the arrogance of government in deciding for parents the childcare which best suits their family circumstances.

Naturally, to oversee the new childcare regulations, there is to be a new national bureaucracy.

Other new bureaucracies materialised from the Brisbane meeting.  These include new national regulatory bodies established to administer safety regulations at sea and in rail transport as well as to combat water theft.

But education provided the most fertile ground for greater government intrusion.

We now have a new national regulator for Vocational Education and Training (VET).  That initiative will increase the costs and slow the growth of private colleges that emerged to meet the increased demand for increasingly affluent Asians to study in an English language environment.

Cost increases required by the VET national regulator will be amplified by a new National Standards Council administering tougher regulations of the international student-oriented education sector.

These measures will hobble private providers of education services, neutralising their competitive edge by forcing them to incur similar costs to union-dominated government universities and TAFEs.

No government meeting would be complete without a host of new spending pandering to green activism.  The Brisbane COAG was no exception.

It set up a new Green Skills Agreement to provide teaching jobs to otherwise unemployable sustainability-trained people.

Those with pseudo-sustainability skills will also find a role in yet another newly-minted bureaucracy providing advice on urban planning systems, climate change, affordability and traffic congestion.

Surprise, surprise!  With all these new bureaucracies and expanded regulatory areas, our leaders could identify no controls that had become redundant or had never been useful.

The Brisbane COAG meeting did address "regulatory reform".  But this only involved a shuffling of the regulatory deckchairs, with national rules for credit law and changed voting rights on food regulation.

Ministers also commissioned further reviews of regulation on directors' liability and yet another report into building regulations.

Governments are opening the regulatory throttle, notwithstanding lots of rhetoric to the contrary.  While the Commonwealth has a Minister for Deregulation, Lindsay Tanner, that title is merely Orwellian "newspeak", a veil for increased government intervention in our lives and businesses.

COAG needs to become a body overseeing a bonfire of regulations, rather than remain a lightning rod for increasing layers of control.


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Friday, December 11, 2009

Let he who is without climate sin ...

Barry Jones accuses climate sceptics of using ad hominem attacks yet embarks on the most remarkable such tactics himself.  Out-hyping all who came before him, not only does he associate sceptics with those who deny the holocaust, AIDS and the link between smoking and lung cancer, but for good measure adds fluoridation and evolution.

Given that the East Anglia data is now mired in controversy, it is a rich irony that Barry Jones uses its erectile picture of recent climate trends.

In fact, the recent history presents a far less convincing case for a human impact when examined using the satellite data which has become available since 1978.

East Anglia's Climate Research Unit (CRU) was headed by P.D. Jones who is at the centre of "climategate" emails and has been forced to step down.  The emails reveal:

  • the orchestrated vilification of "sceptic" scientists and the claim that their work can only be relevant if subjected to "peer review" publication in major scientific journals;
  • deliberate attempts to exclude any such work being published (including organising the dismissal of editors who allowed such publication);  and
  • insights into how data had been manipulated to "prove" a warming effect to coincide with industrialisation, while preventing the raw data from being made available to those outside the inner circle.

While the ethics of the scientists concerned are indefensible, what is now coming under scrutiny is the accuracy of their data.  The unravelling of climategate and the refusal of the scientists concerned to allow independent scrutiny of their data first became apparent with the famous Mann "hockey stick", the poster chart of the 2002 IPCC report.  McIntyre and McKitrick demonstrated this was a fictitious depiction of the climate trends over the past millennium -- they showed the apparent anomalously rising temperature during the 20th Century was the outcome of the Mann model itself and that the same result emerged even when random data was fed into the model.

The secretive nature in which the CRU data was held first became apparent almost four years ago when an Australian scientist, Warwick Hughes, could not understand what the adjustments were that CRU had made to arrive at their conclusions that warming in the 20th century was 0.6º +/-0.2º.  The response of P.D. Jones was, "Why should I make the data available to you, when your aim is to try and find something wrong with it."  Of course, this is inimical to the whole notion of scientific discovery whereby findings are subject to constant review.

Warwick Hughes himself has a record of temperature reviewing going back to 1991.  He was critical of the original P.D. Jones choice of sites for Australia as being likely to be contaminated by local heat island effects.  P.D. Jones used 13 long term sites all of which were official BOM sites and five of which were capital cities.  Hughes noted that the official data for the state capitals showed an upward trend, while data for 25 remote stations he identified as not having had an urbanization overlay showed no trend.

A later paper Hughes wrote with Robert Balling and Sherwood Idso was published in the December 1992 in Geophysical Research Letters (GRL).  It examined temperature trends in Australia in the eight decades to 1991 using 43 stations with continuous records.  It showed a net cooling in the years to 1978 and a warming in the years 1979-90.  These findings were originally contested by the BOM and three researchers led by Dr Neville Nicholls, (who became a lead author of the IPCC 2007 review) sought to have GRL publish a "Comment" attacking the data adjustments that had been made;  eventually the BOM acknowledged that their attempted rebuttal had only marginal merit and GRL declined to publish it.

The "climategate" emails puncture any myths about the integrity of the Australian data.  In one of them (18 July 2007) the CRU analyst writes, "Confidence in the fidelity of the Australian station (sic) in the database drastically reduced.  Likelihood of invalid merging of Australian stations high."  His frustration was summarised in the statement, "getting seriously fed up with the state of the Australian data."  So many new stations have been introduced, so many false references ... so many changes that aren't documented."

In the mid 1980s, Barry Jones became the first Australian MP to answer a question in Parliament about global warming.  Actually the question was on global cooling but Barry Jones responded that this was so 1980 and that the new scientific paradigm was global warming.  Nobody at that time predicted that the issue would develop so that it dominates political debate and overturns Opposition leaders and perhaps also Governments.


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Completely plucked and hissing loudly

The current federal-state-local tax review, chaired by commonwealth treasury secretary Ken Henry, is close to completing a blueprint to reform Australia's taxation regime.  The final report is sure to include recommendations to pluck the existing tax goose more efficiently, and possibly to find new geese to pluck.

For example, there has been speculation that the final report might recommend new capital gains taxes on owner occupied housing worth $2 million or more, potentially catching many more Australians in the governmental tax net.

Another idea canvassed is to charge traffic congestion levies.  These would effectively impose penalties for road bottlenecks during peak travel hours, even though the congestion is not the product of design on the part of individual drivers.

It is expected that the taxing powers of the states will once again come under assault through the Henry Review process.

Assignment of payroll or land taxes could be given to the commonwealth to enable it to impose a standardised tax base across the breadth of the country.  The states would then be permitted to raise their own tax rates within certain limits.

This idea has been greeted with much fanfare by the business community, which is not adverse to the extinction of interstate tax base competition.  However, if such a proposal was to proceed then two chief advantages of fiscal federalism -- choice and diversity in the tax realm -- might come closer to becoming a thing of the past.

The review might also recommend ways to increase Canberra's taxing powers at the expense of the states.  One option canvassed by Henry is to create a new federal resource rent tax to replace current state mining royalties.

If implemented such a proposal would aggravate vertical fiscal imbalance in the Australian federation and extend the powers of a monolithic ATO bureaucracy.

Many of these reported proposals are inspired by optimal taxation theory, developed by economists such as Ramsay and Mirrlees and which infuse most public economics textbooks.  According to this theory, tax structures should be designed so as to minimise the incentive effect of taxes on wealth-enhancing private sector economic decisions such as investing, producing, saving and working.

It is concluded in the optimal taxation literature that the best way to minimise the hissing of taxed agents is to cover the whole economy with a blanket of broad-based taxes.  This system would reduce the deadweight losses associated with taxation.

As discussed by Australian economist Geoffrey Brennan and US economist and Nobel Prize winner James Buchanan the risk is that governments would use the lessons of optimal tax theory to maximise their power to tax beyond what is deemed acceptable by the voting public.

In the Brennan-Buchanan view of the world, tax base broadening is akin to governments establishing a hatchery to breed as many tax geese as quickly as possible.

A discussion paper released by the Henry Review provided a damning statistic of the implicit tax breeding program implicitly adopted by successive governments.  Australians already pay at least 125 different taxes each year, with 99 imposed by the rapacious commonwealth, 25 by bungling states and municipal rates by meddling councils.

The prospect of even more taxes at their disposal would be welcomed by governments of all political stripes, especially by those struggling under the weight of heavy structural budget deficits.

On top of the potential abuse of fiscal power that might come from an extension of the taxman's net, it is highly likely that the additional revenues generated by virtue of broadening tax bases might be dedicated to wasteful government programs, such as flammable pink-batts or duplicated school halls.

The bitter experience of history suggests that taxpayers cannot rely on the benevolence of political representatives, or other potential restraints such as the power of the ballot box, to keep taxes low.  The question then arises as to what should be done?

Ultimately, the key to securing low taxation for prosperity and economic liberty is to restrict access by governments to the tax goose altogether.

In the first instance, this objective may be achieved by a reform process that eliminates the low-hanging fruit of miscellaneous taxes and charges.  As indicated by the Henry Review discussion paper on Australia's tax architecture, there exist 115 taxes that contribute only 10 per cent of taxation revenue collected by governments.

To ensure that such a program of tax elimination does not impinge on overall fiscal sustainability, it will be necessary to reduce government expenditures by a comparable amount.

Assuming that the 115 nuisance levies are wiped from the taxation landscape, Australia would be left with ten large taxes that currently collect 90 per cent of tax revenues.

The largest of these big ten -- the personal income tax -- could then be transferred from the commonwealth to the states, in a return to the fiscal situation that existed prior to World War II.

A key advantage of this devolution of taxing power is that states and territories would not only become more accountable to taxpayers and citizens for the spending they undertake, but that the prospect of continuing capital and labour mobility would force states to reduce income tax burdens to retain these precious economic resources.

Another advantage is that the return of state income taxes would halt, if not reverse, the century-long damaging trend of increasing powers to the distant and less accountable federal bureaucracy.

To further prevent any abuse by governments of their reducing taxing powers, a regime of tax limitation rules -- similar to the Colorado Taxpayer Bill of Rights (TABOR) -- could be used to limit revenue increases.

According to TABOR style fiscal rules, if governments acquire revenues in excess of the specified inflation, population or income growth limits, then the extra money must be returned back to taxpayers.  Numerous studies have shown that such rules are effective in limiting public sector growth.

The weight of submissions tendered to the Henry Review secretariat, numbering over 1,000, amply illustrates that average Australians are feeling completely plucked and are thus hissing more loudly than ever.

The recommendations of the Henry Review final report will say much as to whether the secretariat has heeded these demands for governments to engage in much less plucking in future.


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Climate favourable for Libs

In the weeks before Malcolm Turnbull's downfall, the Australian public was treated to a strange and unusual spectacle.  Almost to a person, the national media was urging the Liberals to make a "popular" decision and agree to Kevin Rudd's emissions trading scheme.  For a while it seemed as though the only test of good policy was whether it was popular with voters.

It's not difficult to fathom why the press gallery stressed the popularity of an ETS as they barracked for the Liberals to pass the scheme.  It was a happy coincidence that a policy many journalists personally believed in, namely reducing carbon emissions, appeared to be also popular with the public.  And when it became obvious that Rudd wouldn't succeed in his ambition to go to Copenhagen with parliamentary approval of his scheme, the sense of disappointment from commentators was palpable.

As one senior member of the gallery lamented:  "Australia has reverted to a pre-Howard state of climate change denial ... How did it come to pass that a bipartisan consensus, with overwhelming public support, could collapse so completely?"

The problems with turning policy into a popularity contest are obvious.  Does every popular policy get implemented or only some of them?  And what about unpopular policies?  It's lucky floating the dollar, reducing tariffs and implementing the GST weren't put to a referendum.

It's noteworthy that other seemingly popular policies, for example, capital punishment, aren't championed by journalists with quite the same gusto.  And there are some popular policies like those of the Howard government on border protection to which the Canberra press gallery is absolutely hostile.  It looks as though journalists are happy to pick and choose which popular things they support and which they reject.  Once upon a time politicians pursuing popular policies were accused of "dog whistle" politics.

It's no surprise Canberra's commentators enthusiastically warned of electoral oblivion for the Liberals if they didn't follow the electorate's wishes "to do something about global warming".  But it is surprising that up until the morning of the Liberals' leadership vote, Turnbull's shadow cabinet seemed to believe what the media were telling them.  The Higgins and Bradfield byelections demonstrate that Turnbull's shadow cabinet should have had more faith in the electorate.  Or at least that part of the electorate who care about their household bills increasing by $1000 a year because of an ETS.

Whatever might be said about Turnbull, he has never wavered from his commitment to an emissions scheme.  He supported Labor's legislation as a matter of principle.  But most of the rest of his shadow cabinet appeared to agree with the government's policy because that was easier than disagreeing with it.  Joe Hockey's suggestion that Liberal MPs get a conscience vote on the ETS was proof that the issue seemed too hard.  For a couple of days it looked as though in the absence of a principle to guide it, the Liberals would have had to rely on opinion polls to determine policy.

In September a survey from the BBC showed 67 per cent of Australians want more government regulation.  Presumably if the Liberals had passed the ETS because it was popular, they would next agree to bigger government and higher taxes because those things are popular too.

Because of Tony Abbott, the Prime Minister is now going to have to explain how his ETS will work.  It's easy for the public to be in favour of something it doesn't know anything about.

Australian political history is replete with policies that were popular until people got to vote on them.  In November 1991 -- a few days after John Hewson launched Fightback! -- the coalition had an 18 per cent lead against Labor in the opinion polls.

If there's one thing that we do know about the current political situation, it is that at least at this moment, the electorate believes Labor is successfully managing the economy.  Of course this might change as interest rates rise, and as Barnaby Joyce as shadow finance minister prosecutes his case that the nation is now carrying unsustainable levels of public debt.

Every minute the Prime Minister spends explaining his Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme is a minute he's not explaining how his economic recovery plan saved Australia from recession.  As bizarre as it sounds, a federal election fought on the issue of climate change might be Abbott's best chance against Rudd.


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Tuesday, December 08, 2009

10 years of Labor is a record of records;  especially in spending

Ten years ago most members of the state Labor caucus would have had mixed reactions to their come-from-behind election win under Steve Bracks.

The champagne corks were no doubt popping in celebration after years in the political wilderness.  At the same time many in the new government would have breathed a huge sigh of relief knowing they pulled off victory despite their much-pilloried financial mismanagement record.

Since stumbling back into office in 1999, Labor has had 10 years to clean the stain of the Cain-Kirner years and present themselves as reliable stewards of Victoria's public finances.  With another state election scheduled about this time next year, it is appropriate to ask how Labor has performed over the past decade.

One of the most important benchmarks of financial prudence is the state of the net operating surplus for the general government sector, covering the transactions of core agencies and departments.

The Government's own budget papers show that state treasurers Steve Bracks, John Brumby and John Lenders have presided over an eroding accrual budget surplus in trend terms since 2000-01, the first full fiscal year of the state Labor Government.

In 2000-01, the budget surplus stood at $1.2 billion, a rich fiscal inheritance left behind by the Kennett government.  By 2008-09, the surplus stood at a relative pittance of $243 million.  The revised expected outcome for this financial year is not much better.

Labor's implicit acknowledgement that the budget has melted away on its watch is reflected in recent changes in fiscal policy.

In the 2008-09 budget, the Government announced it would set an operating surplus target of at least 1 per cent of revenue.  In the following budget, it announced a diluted surplus target of at least $100 million.

A glaring feature of the expected budget surplus for 2009-10 is that it has been bankrolled by grants from the Rudd Government, most likely in the form of borrowed money.  It is expected that grant funding will grow by 17 per cent this financial year.  If it had grown by 10 per cent instead, as was the case in 2008-09, the budget would be in deficit by about $1 billion.

A characteristic feature of this Government's record is the extent to which it has received a huge influx of receipts across a broad range of revenue instruments.

It snared $4.3 billion more from individuals and businesses in 2008-09 than in 2000-01.  This represents a 50 per cent increase in revenue from this source alone.

A big source of tax growth has been property taxes, as rising residential and commercial property prices have given the State Government a lucrative revenue stream.  In particular, land tax jumped by a staggering 140 per cent over the period, from $516 million to $1.2 billion.

As many small and medium businesses will attest, the often pernicious increases in land tax bills have affected incentives to grow, invest and employ people.

The Victorian Government over the past decade has also gouged holders of general and life insurance policies, as insurance tax revenues grew by 91 per cent, while Victoria maintains the invidious status as the highest stamp duty state in the Commonwealth.

The Government has also benefited from money funnelled from a GST and specific purpose grants pipeline stretching from Canberra to Spring Street.  The amount of grants received by the state has grown from about $10.4 billion in 2000-01 to about $18.8 billion in 2008-09, a whopping increase of 81 per cent.

Last financial year, Federal Government grants accounted for 48 per cent of Victorian general government sector revenue.  With Kevin Rudd and Wayne Swan doling out even more money to prop up state budgets, it is expected that grants will account for just over 51 per cent of the state's available revenue.  For Victoria, the new-found dependence on the feds to effectively give the Brumby Government a veneer of a budget surplus is a sign of financial and economic weakness.

To understand how a gradual budget surplus meltdown squares with record revenues, it is necessary to examine the spending record of Labor.

General government operating expenses rose from $22.5 billion in 2000-01 to $38.9 billion;  an increase of $16.4 billion, or 73 per cent.

While the overall increase in spending has been significant, it is not sufficient to explain changes in the direction of the budget bottom line.  Therefore, a comparison of growth of expenditure and revenue on an annualised basis is required.

On the basis of the Government's own estimates, annual spending growth exceeded the growth in revenues in five out of eight years, including in 2008-09 when expenditure grew by 9 per cent compared with a strong 6 per cent increase in revenue.

The state budget papers reveal that spending on employee wages and salaries has grown at a faster rate than overall general government expenditure since 2000-01.  My recent study has also shown that Victoria has recorded the fastest increase in total numbers of public servants of any state since 2000;  the core Victorian Public Service bureaucracy alone has grown by 60,000 people.

And, in what must be of major concern to Victorians who lived through the Cain-Kirner years, the Brumby Government is projecting a big spike in public sector indebtedness over the next four years.

For the general government sector, net debt will rise from $5 billion in 2009 to a projected $16 billion by 2013, an increase of 202 per cent.  By contrast, state general government net debt was just $2 billion in 2001.

For the non-financial public sector, including government trading enterprises, net debt is expected to balloon to a huge $31.3 billion by the end of the forward estimates.


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COP15 Opening Ceremony

It is hard not to be cynical about the UN Climate Change Conference that opened in Copenhagen, Denmark today.

The opening ceremony to the 15th session of the Conference of Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, COP15, opened at the Bella Conference Centre with a video presentation visually demonstrating the looming fate of the world if tough action wasn't taken to cut emissions from floods and droughts to hurricanes;  and concluded with young children asking negotiators and political leaders to "please help save the world".

And saving the world was clearly on the agenda of the first two speakers -- Danish Prime Minister, Lars Rasmussen, and the Mayor of the City of Copenhagen, Ritt Bjerregaard.

Rasmussen didn't hold back making it clear he was committed to rhetorical flutter by seeking "a strong and ambitious climate change agreement" and "an agreement for effective global solutions".  But he avoided boring the meeting with details.  After all he'll have a busy work schedule over the next two weeks hosting the one hundred and ten world leaders who'll come to Copenhagen to either share the credit of an agreement or pass the blame for its failure.

Bjerrgaard is following in Rasmussen's footsteps by hosting seventy leaders of major local governments.  She's also taken onto Copenhagen's shoulders the responsibility to save the world by renaming the City as ‘Hopenhagen' for the next fortnight.

Their speeches might have been pointless, but at least they were welcoming.

By comparison the Chair of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Rajendra Pachuari, used his speech to attack climate sceptics who were fuelling doubt on the science of climate change.

And he directly responded to the exposure of data and emails from the British Hadley Centre by attacking those who "would go the extent of engaging illegal acts, perhaps to discredit the IPCC".

Pachuari was clearly annoyed that his immediately preceding seven metre sea level rise claim unless a new agreement to cut emissions may be open to scrutiny.  But Pachuari was trumped by the Executive Secretary of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, Yvo de Boer, who read out a story of climate-induced rain, strong winds and floods and that that a Copenhagen agreement would "prevent" them occurring.

De Boer also outlined his "Christmas cake" structured Copenhagen deal including:

  • The foundation layer of an "agreement to prompt implementation of action on mitigation, adaptation, finance, technology, REDD (Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation) and capacity building.
  • The second layer including "ambitious reduction commitments and actions ... (which) also includes commitments to start up finance in the order of $10 billion per year, as well as long term finance".
  • Iced with "a shared vision on long-term cooperative action on climate change and a long term goal".

But rather than calling it a Christmas cake, he should probably call it a Christmas wish list because it is the job of countries, not the UNFCCC Secretariat to decide what should be in any deal.

The ceremony was book ended with rapturous applause, but like most of the debate leading up to this conference the applause was false.

Despite the main plenary hall that housed the opening ceremony being the largest in the conference centre, organisers had to reasonably ration attendance with more than fifteen thousand registered delegates.

But rather than admission on a first come, first served basis tickets were issued to "constituent groups" which included large NGO delegations such as Greenpeace, Friends of the Earth and the World Wildlife Fund, or social justice movements like indigenous people's forums.

The consequence was that anyone sceptical of the UN system or the science of climate change never made it into the opening ceremony under the gaze of the world's media.  Instead their voices were sent to the other end of the conference centre out of sight, and out of mind.

Wednesday, December 02, 2009

Stop picking on the pokies

It has been a bad few weeks for the rights of poker machine users.

First, there was the draft Productivity Commission (PC) report which, despite finding there had been a decline in the rates of problem gambling since its last report in 1999, still proposed a whole suite of new restrictions on pokies players.

Yet, even the measures proposed by the Commission were not enough for some of the nation's least tolerant politicians.  Both Family First's Stephen Fielding and the Greens Rachel Siewert demanded immediate action against poker machines.  Siewert wants ATMs ripped out of gaming venues almost straightaway, while Fielding wants the even more drastic action of removing gaming machines entirely from pubs and clubs and corralling them in large gambling halls.

Not only do the intolerant extremes in the Australian Parliament show no respect for the rights of those Australians who enjoy playing the pokies, they also seem to have no interest in procedural niceties, like the period of consultation built into the PC timetable or for the final report due in early 2010.

The next step in the pokie-bashing came a couple of weeks later, when the 7.30 Report ran a story highlighting calls from anti-pokies activists for bans on clubs and pubs providing family entertainment.  The argument is that while children are enjoying a meal with their parents or playing in the facility's play area they are being exposed to the sights and sounds of the pokies.

According to the zealots this is either "inherently dangerous" or plain "immoral", personally, "far-fetched" seems a better description.  One minute your kids are watching Big Ted and Jemima in a Play School concert at the local RSL, and the next they are gambling addicts.

Of course, if pubs and clubs took away all the family friendly food, entertainment and facilities, the same zealots would be attacking them for solely focusing on gaming.

Then, as if to prove that bad news comes in threes, there was the decision of the Victorian Civil & Administrative Tribunal (VCAT) to deny the proprietor of the Romsey Hotel the right to install pokies in his pub.  Romsey is a small town on the northern fringes of Melbourne, which bears some of the tree-changing demographics of a place like Bundanoon in the New South Wales Southern Highlands, which achieved notoriety earlier this year for its ban on bottled water.  The Romsey pub is in desperate need of a renovation to install modern features such as a new family-friendly bistro, and providing a full range of gambling options (it already has a TAB) would be part of this.

VCAT's Justice Bell actually found that the economic impact of allowing pokies in Romsey would be "slightly positive", but the social impact would be "strongly negative", and therefore he rejected the application.

What is remarkable about Justice Bell's decision is that he concluded that if granted the licenses, gaming expenditure in Romsey would still be below the state, country Victorian and regional levels.  However, Bell opined that "not everything you can count counts and you cannot count everything that counts" and proceeded to talk about "wellbeing".  Obviously, Justice Bell's view of wellbeing was not shared by the drinkers in the Romsey pub.  They came out to voice their strong opposition to the supporters of the ban, celebrating in the town's main street on the day of the decision.

There is some dispute about what the majority view was in Romsey about poker machines, but even if those wanting pokies were a minority one has to ask what on earth makes the majority think that they should be able to dictate to the minority about how they spend their leisure dollars?

Whether it is gambling, or the suite of measures relating to food and alcohol proposed in the National Preventive Health Taskforce report, there is a growing trend for so-called experts to propose "evidence-based" solutions to the problems of society.

Of course, there is an issue with problem gambling, albeit a declining one, and there may be merit in some of the PC's proposals in relation to it.  However, in a healthy society, as many decisions as possible about risk should be made by individuals, and decisions on what risks children should be exposed to should be made by parents.

Instead, we seem to be rushing down a path where these sorts of decisions are made through the political and legal processes.  This potentially leaves national policy at the whim of Family First and Green Senators and local policy driven by the sort of articulate, litigious tree-changers who seem to have succeeded in imposing their world view on the potential pokies players of Romsey.


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The moral value of free markets

Speech from the launch of Richard Morgan's
Lessons From The Global Financial Crisis:
The Relevance of Adam Smith on Morality and Free Markets

at "Morgans at 401", 401 Collins Street Melbourne


We are here today to launch Richard Morgan's book, a book that applies 18th century wisdom to current circumstances.

One of the great virtues of knowledge of past ideas, is that it forces present thinkers to work harder.  Not always an agreeable prospect.  Hence the push to define the past as a realm of Stygian moral and intellectual darkness that our present knowing moral splendour has utterly superseded.  Thus is current fashionable opinion both elevated and protected.

Yet much that has been paraded in recent decades as allegedly cutting edge thought is little more than ideas from as long ago as the 5th century BC re-packaged.  Indeterminacy of meaning, for example -- which the post-modernists make so much of -- was a hot topic for Socrates and the boys.  While the politics of Plato's Republic -- with its Platonic Guardians, and their necessary supporting Platonic myths -- seems to get endlessly recycled.  Judges and international bureaucrats -- some of them scientific -- are notable current offerings as Platonic Guardians:  with supporting Platonic myths from which dissent is, apparently, not to be permitted in polite society.

Against this recycling of the 5th century BC, it would be quite an advance if we could get rather more academics and other intellectuals to advance to the standard of some good 18th century thinking.

Consider the famous passage by Voltaire in his Letters on the English, first published in 1734.

Take a view of the Royal Exchange in London, a place more venerable than many courts of justice, where the representatives of all nations meet for the benefit of mankind.  There the Jew, the Mahometan, and the Christian transact together, as though they all professed the same religion, and give the name of infidel to none but bankrupts.  There thee Presbyterian confides in the Anabaptist, and the Churchman depends on the Quaker's word.  At the breaking up of this pacific and free assembly, some withdraw to the synagogue, and others to take a glass.  This man goes and is baptized in a great tub, in the name of the Father, Son, and Holy Ghost:  that man has his son's foreskin cut off, whilst a set of Hebrew words (quite unintelligible to him) are mumbled over his child.  Others retire to their churches, and there wait for the inspiration of heaven with their hats on, and all are satisfied.

Let us consider for a moment how much turgid academic ranting on the allegedly intimate connection between capitalism and bigotry is rendered otiose by this simple observation of what commerce actually means.  Commerce does not care for the colour of your skin, your religion, your sex, your sexuality, your ethnicity:  what it cares about is the colour of your money.  And the worth of your word.

It is politics, with its conjunction of coercion and category -- often coercion-by-category -- that makes the colour of your skin, your religion, your sex, your sexuality, your ethnicity important, even fatally important.  Commerce wants your money and so must, perforce, attend to what you want.  Commerce-as-commerce is not interested in any of the vile wars waged by believers -- both secular and religious -- against human nature as it is in the name of human nature as it is supposed to be.  Commerce just wants your money.  Preferably again and again.  "It is better for me if you are happy with what I do" is practical commerce.

For requiring their consent is a great encourager of good behaviour towards others.  As Adam Smith observed:

The real and effectual discipline which is exercised over a workman is that of his customers.  It is the fear of losing their employment which restrains his frauds and corrects his negligence.

Down the ages, there has been much railing against commerce as undermining the moral order, how amoral the "vulgar merchants" are.  Yet -- when one bothers to look at the historical record -- it is the commercial societies that have, again and again, pioneered social advances.  The Serene Republic of Venice with equality before the law and sophisticated capital markets;  the Dutch Republic being the first society to abolish the spectre of famine;  England pioneering state action to assist the poor.  No nations have been so morally tender about just about everything as are modern liberal capitalist societies.

The marginal in society are frequently rather better treated by commerce than by politics.  A Fortune 500 company is much more likely to acknowledge same-sex relationships than a US State is.  The former cares about getting and keeping good staff, and reaching customers.  While political and religious entrepreneurs often seek to sell effortless virtue:  to sell a sense of unearned self-satisfaction from simply being different to some other group -- whites feeling terribly virtuous for not being black, gentiles feeling terribly virtuous for not being Jewish, straights for not being gay, those born and raised Protestant for not being Catholic, or vice versa.  And so on.

If one is selling effortless virtue based on denigration of others, then one is selling bigotry.  Something politics, and religion, are sadly rife with.  Commerce, not so much.  One attends in a different way to those you want to do business with, as Voltaire famously observed.

Long before people talked of the "pink dollar", there was the Jewish ducat.  While women could scale the heights of commerce when they were still formally barred from even the foothills of politics.  The first African-American woman to become a millionaire was not Oprah Winfrey, but Madame C.J. Walker, who became a millionaire by 1910:  and if you were a millionaire in 1910, you were really a millionaire.  She achieved this by selling hair-care products, employing many African-American women in the process, quite deliberately so:  no doubt a grave offence against the Equal Opportunity Act -- don't tell Rob Hulls.

When one looks at the denunciations of vulgar merchants and "immoral" commerce, again and again one sees the real complaint is that they attend to what people want, not what the critic thinks people ought to want.  That they attend to what people are like, not what people allegedly ought to be like.

To any supporter of a static social order, the restless energy of commerce is a threat.  And what social order is more static than one that seeks equality of outcome?  The societies that have most raged against commerce have also created some of the most appalling horrors in history, struggling mightily and brutally against what people want.

Indeed, if one wants to establish any bigoted social order, one of the first things one has to do is to restrain commerce.  As Thomas Sowell points out, part of the impetus for the Jim Crow laws in the American South was to ensure that a white person buying a first class train ticket did not find themselves sitting next to a black person.  For, left to themselves, the railroad companies only cared if you could pay.

The apartheid regime in South Africa restricted commerce in all sorts of ways, as it had to in order to make race matter so much.  Hence, when Helen Suzman was the only Opposition member of the South African Parliament, she represented the Cape Town equivalent of Kooyong.  The commanding heights of South African commerce was where white opposition to apartheid was electorally strongest.

One of the great disasters of indigenous policy in our country was the law restricting consensual commercial relations between Aboriginal stockmen and pastoralists, by imposing full-time employment as the only acceptable form of contract.  This, as was predicted at the time, devastated outback Aboriginal employment.  Arrangements that had evolved to suit the people involved in them were abolished by coercive action by central authority because people, not involved in those interactions, had a theory.  A theory that did not have pay any attention to what people on the ground actually wanted, and so what would actually work.  A theory that classed itself as profoundly moral while it proceeded to stop people attending to what each other wanted.

Adam Smith had something to say about such "Men of System", who attended to their own theories of government and not to people and circumstances.  Such a person

... does not consider that in the great chess-board of human society, every single piece has a principle of its own, altogether different from that which the legislature might choose to impress upon it.

In Richard Trudgen's Why Warriors Lie Down and Die -- a necessary book to understand the serial disasters of indigenous policy in this country -- there is a particularly appalling passage about "benevolent" government bureaucrats being frustrated when the locals continued to use their canoes to fish rather than the shiny new trawler the taxpayers had bought for them.  But the locals knew about canoes and operated them within family and clan groups.  The trawler involved new skills and its operation would upset agreed alliances and arrangements among those families and clans.  But the bureaucrats knew nought of such matters, so they deliberately burnt the canoes to force the locals to use the trawler.

Needless to say, this wanton vandalism had no such effect.  Indigenous Australians have suffered mightily from the coercive benevolence of the state.

For attending to what other people want is not a simple matter of selfishness versus benevolence.  As C.S. Lewis noted:

"... those who torment us for our own good will torment us without end, for they do so with the approval of their consciences."

As will those who torment others in the name of the general good.  The truly terrible thing about a Nazi gauleiter or Soviet commissar was not that they lacked a conscience, but precisely that they had them:  consciences that burned to "purify" society.  Attending to others is a great restraint on oppression of all kinds:  both those motivated by moral claims, and those not.

For great harms are often created when capitalist acts between consenting adults are banned.  The high minimum wages, and grave difficulties in sacking people, of French law do much to explain the social disasters of the banlieu, the French housing estates.  The harder it is to sever a working relationship, the riskier it becomes to begin it.  The more productive someone has to be to make starting a working relationship worthwhile, the less such relationships will be engaged in.  Instead, people retreat to ways of reducing the risk:  they insist on more certification;  they use networks so people they know can, in effect, vouch for any new person;  they minimise risks in communication by hiring people most like themself, and so on.  Consequently, if you are a young Muslim male from those French housing estates, your chances of getting a job are greatly reduced.  Living lives of idle resentment, burning a few cars provides cathartic excitement.

Thus does state-imposed "morality" divide society by stopping commerce from bringing people together.  Social disaster created by a whole set of "moral" theories that stop people attending, one-on-one, to what other people want.

Yet Voltaire, over two and a half centuries ago, could see what encourages people to live together amiably and productively and what divides them.  We really could do with a great deal more such eighteenth century wisdom:  a sentiment that can turn up in all sorts of places.  When he was General Secretary of the Communist Party of the People's Republic, Hu Yaobang was reported to have observed that it was the ideas of Montesquieu, rather than "outdated" ones of Marx, that China needed.

There is much to be said for the brute realism of commerce.  The ivory towers of academe generate more than their fair share of nonsense.  Adam Smith famously described certain universities as having:

... chosen to remain, for a long time, the sanctuaries in which exploded systems and obsolete prejudices found shelter and protection after they had been hunted out of every other corner of the world.

But academics can peddle ideas whose consequences they do not have to deal with.  Consider the fairly appalling state of modern pedagogical theory.  Academics come up with pedagogical theories to be imbued in educators of teachers, who then teach student teachers, who then go and teach students, the ones who actually bear the consequences of those ideas.  Few milieus in our society are more isolated from the consequences of their ideas than the peddlers of pedagogical theory and few groups produce so much arrant nonsense -- and often grandly big-noting nonsense at that.

Not, I suggest, a coincidence.  There are all sorts of good features to commerce's attention to what other people want:  to having to deal, often on a daily basis, with the consequences of what you do.

It is a grave mistake to think that politics has any inherent tendency to better behaviour than commercial life.  In his recent book on the Irish housing boom and bust, Irish journalist Fintan O'Toole refers to:

... certain landowners [who] had accumulated large landbanks at the outskirts of urban areas which they then released in dribs and drabs in order to manipulate the market and artificially to maintain high land prices.

In Australia we have a name for such people.  We call them "State Governments".  If Australians were as free to buy and sell land as Texans -- a State that has a bigger population than Australia, faster population growth, higher average income and a bigger proportion of its population in its five largest cities -- our houses would cost half to a third (or even less) their current prices.  Instead, a country with one of the world's lowest population densities has the most expensive metropolitan housing in the Anglosphere.  A true regulatory achievement.

As Adam Smith observed:

The statesman, who should attempt to direct private people in what manner they ought to employ their capitals, would not only load himself with a most unnecessary attention, but assume an authority which could safely be trusted, not only to no single person, but to no council or senate whatever, and which would no-where be so dangerous as in the hands of a man who had folly and presumption enough to fancy himself fit to exercise it.

In the light of recent tragic events, we might consider the way regulations controlling removal of trees and bushes retarded people's ability to manage the fire risk of their properties.  We might further consider the failures in management of public lands -- notably the failure to reduce fire loads along roads, and in government lands generally.

We might consider the failure to invest in dams to match the increase in Victoria's population.  The last being a particularly egregious failure to live up to Adam Smith's third duty of government:

... the duty of erecting and maintaining certain public works and certain public institutions which it can never be for the interest of any individual, or small number of individuals, to erect and maintain, because the profit could never repay the expense to any individual or small number of individuals, though it may frequently do much more than repay it to a great society.

But "global warming" provides useful cover for the failure to match new water infrastructure to the increase in Victoria's population.  A 30% increase in Victoria's population without a significant new dam is so obviously the fault of the climate -- one of those useful Platonic myths I referred to earlier.

The failures of regulation, and of government management, are so numerous, that to presume that they have some strong demand on our support -- rather than requiring very careful justification -- is a triumph of faith over experience.

By contrast, the economic benefits of free commerce are well attested, something Richard Morgan provides an excellent short survey of in his book.  But it is a great mistake to think that those economic benefits are somehow separate, or even opposed, to the moral benefits of free commerce.

Not a mistake that Adam Smith himself was at all inclined to make.  As Richard Morgan reminds us, Smith was a moral philosopher who produced The Theory of the Moral Sentiments years before he published The Wealth of Nations.  To start with a short discussion of elements of The Theory of the Moral Sentiments, as Richard Morgan does, is entirely appropriate.  The right way to frame the practical and moral advantages of free commerce, illuminated by the observations and wisdom of Adam Smith.  Wisdom that, as Richard Morgan sets out, is entirely relevant to our own time.

The case for freedom of commerce is very much a moral case.  I commend Richard Morgan's short, and highly readable, book to you as an excellent primer to the continuing relevance of Adam Smith's 18th century wisdom.  Perhaps more of our academics -- and even a few of our politicians -- might catch up to the 18th century, so we can better cope with the challenges of the 21st century.  Especially as Richard Morgan has kindly made it so easy for them to do so.

Thank you