Introduction

CONTENTS

1. Introduction
2. Australia's Regional Interests
3. Not History's End, But History's Resumption
4. The Regional Security Outlook:  the Australian Viewpoint
5. US Politics and Asia-Pacific Policy
6. Canberra's Approach to Asia-Pacific Regional Security
7. Living with Japan:  An Australian Perspective
8. The American Debate about Japan
9. The Economic and Trade Outlook for the Region
10. Symmetry and Asymmetry:  US-Australia Trade Policies in the 1990s

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CHAPTER ONE

Since the end of the Cold War and the disintegration of the Soviet Empire, attention has focused mainly on Europe.  This is quite understandable, as most of the dramatic action -- first the collapse of repressive regimes, then the troubles and conflicts attending the efforts to adjust to the new freedom -- has occurred in that continent.

But what has happened has also transformed the situation in the Pacific.  For nearly half a century this region too was conceptualised, geopolitically and ideologically, in terms of the Cold War.  (In fact -- and in contrast to Europe -- that War was not so "cold" in the Pacific, and much blood was shed in Korea and Indo China.)  So, here, too, the end of the superpower struggle requires serious rethinking.  In conventional geopolitical terms, it is arguable that the North Pacific -- where three great powers meet and where a bitterly divided Korea sits -- is now destined to be the most sensitive and dangerous region in the world.

There are many, however, who insist that such geopolitical thinking is now outdated and does not reflect the reality of mankind's new condition.  Some argue that economic power is replacing military power as the measure of things;  others that the key indicator of future international affairs is the progress being made in spreading democracy through the world.

But even in these terms, the claims of the Pacific region to paramount importance in the new era are very strong.  Economically it is the most dynamic part of the world.  As well as the enormous strength of Japan and the success of the Little Tigers, China has just completed a decade of sustained rapid growth and may have crossed the point of no return in terms of a commitment to the market economy.  As far as the "democratic revolution" is concerned, the Pacific is again a key region.  Countries like South Korea, Taiwan, and Thailand are among the most important examples of modernising societies in which growing middle classes are pressing for more responsive and responsible government.  Even more important, the validity of claims concerning a "democratic revolution" depends very largely on whether India can continue to hold together as a democratic state, and whether China can make real progress in that direction.

While issues such as these may seem abstract and general to practical businessmen and public servants, they are the sort of issues that ultimately determine the shape and substance of those matters that preoccupy such practical men.  For an Australia that is increasingly inclined to think of itself as being part of an entity called "Asia" (an entity that too often remains undifferentiated), they are particularly important questions.

Strategically, the end of the Cold War allows the United States -- Australia's chief ally -- to move from the realm of necessity to the realm of choice.  The logic of superpower conflict no longer compels it to maintain a major presence in the West Pacific;  it now enjoys the luxury of choosing, and there are strong pressures for giving priority to domestic affairs.  Economically, the post-1945 international free trade order is under greater pressure than it has ever been, and there is ominous talk of trade blocs and trade wars.

These and associated issues are the ones discussed in this publication.  While there is a limit to what can be done in a single book, this publication makes an important contribution to the ongoing discussion of Australia's relationship to Tomorrow's Pacific.