Apathy Before a Fall

Australia, the Worst is Yet to Come
by John Leard,
P.O. Box 149, Parramatta, NSW, 2150

John Leard is one of a small breed of Australians -- Hugh Morgan and Geoffrey Blainey are others -- driven by a fierce indignation and love of country to speak out against those things they believe are undermining the prosperity and stability of Australia.

As a businessman Leard was brilliantly successful.  He is now devoting his very singular talents and experience to exhorting his fellow Australians to act now to avoid the catastrophe which he believes is threatening us.  The title of his book, The Worst is Yet to Come -- a collection of his speeches and statements during 1985 and 1986 -- expresses an opinion with which this reviewer entirely agrees.

By contrast with Paul Keating who, in face of fearful month by month overseas deficits, assures us that the economy is "on track" to eventual recovery, John Leard sees "the track" leading straight to a precipice.

Leard sees the economy through the eyes of a highly intelligent businessman rather than through those of an economist and his diagnosis and prescriptions for our troubles have a refreshing bluntness and directness.  His remedies for our present plight, which he perceives as desperate, could all be summed up in a sentence:  we must all work harder, and longer, for the time being for less and less.  If we refuse to do so, we will become a Third World country with our policies dictated by international financiers and the International Monetary Fund -- a fate, in his opinion, worse than death.

John Leard has no confidence that the politicians of either party will succeed in getting this message across.  Indeed he blames them (and in the case of the present Government because of its dominance by the trade unions) for Australia's desperate situation.  The cure will come only from a great groundswell of conviction on the part of the people themselves.  To set this in motion the overriding need is for leadership to explain to the ordinary Australian the gravity of the crisis confronting us.  His book attempts to give the leadership which the politicians of all parties are inexcusably failing to provide.  "We need to realise that we are fighting for our lives.  We are fighting for our Nation and we are fighting for our children's future.  Too many Australians don't even realise that we have a fight on our hands".

With these sentiments this reviewer would be in complete accord.  The crisis this country is facing has not yet made its impact on the lives of the great majority of Australians who, consequently, and notwithstanding the ominously recurring messages conveyed by the bare economic statistics, still have a kind of "business as usual" or "she'll be right mate" mentality.

When John Leard speaks of the need for harder and longer work he is not talking of any kind of work.  He is referring to productive work, efficient work, in those sectors of the economy that can help to right the balance of payments and improve our living standards.  He does not see the work of large parts of the public sector or the bureaucracy as falling within this category.  Along with many others he wants a drastic reduction in government spending and in particular the welfare bureaucracy, whose functions should largely be restored to the traditional family and charitable institutions.

Nor is he enamoured of the contribution to our economy made by the "paper-shufflers".  "Fortunes are being made on the Stock Market and in big takeover deals which don't create any new wealth, new prosperity or new jobs.  Today we have brokers, merchant bankers, lawyers and accountants (who should be the servants of the wealth-creating organs) making more money while new wealth-creation is stagnant or non-existent ... this is an unhealthy trend and cannot last".  It is a pity that he did not explore this development somewhat further and ask how far it has been made possible by the wholesale deregulation of the financial system and of the control mechanisms introduced after World War I1 which has followed the Campbell Report.  The enormous accumulation of debt, national, corporate and personal, in recent years is now giving rise to fears among many thoughtful people about the soundness of the financial system.

John Leard reserves his strongest criticisms, however, for the trade union leaders who, he claims, are the real makers of policy in Australia today, policies which are "economically suicidal".

"Our greatest need", he writes, "is for trade unions to be compelled to obey the law.  If governments cannot deliver on this issue we may well have to let the people decide this basic issue by referendum".

Leard advances a whole host of remedies to avert the impending crisis. Among these are:-

• a ban on recruitment of public servants for the next 5 years;
• a freeze on parliamentary salaries and allowances;
• the elimination of indexed pensions for politicians;  "It is completely inappropriate that the very people who fail to contain inflation should be the very first to be compensated for its effect";
• assessment of the effect of indexed pensions for public servants on the future of the economy;
• restoration of the 40 hour week;
• abandonment of "flexi-time";
• return to the "capacity to pay" concept as the basis for wage increases;
• a 12 months "freeze" on wages, and salariesabove $400 a week and on directors fees, professional fees and dividends;
• elimination of the 17.5% per cent holiday loading;
• abandonment of penalty rates in the tourist industry.  "The tourist industry can, I believe, become to the 21st century what the rural and goldmining industries were to the 19th century and what the resources industry has been to the 20th century".

Those who, like this reviewer, view Australia's present situation with the gravest concern, indeed with fear, would find it difficult to disagree with any of these proposals.  Australia is not gojng to surmount its difficulties by Accords, or with J curves (on both of which John Leard rightly pours contempt) or by the superficial policies of politicians obsessed with winning votes, but will do so only by real sacrifices throughout the length and breadth of the community and the renovation of the economy from top to bottom.

But John Leard has little hope that the bold initiatives required will come from Canberra.  The Prime Minister, he asserts "is really part of the problem rather than being part of the solution".  This, unfortunately, seems very close to the bone of truth.