Tuesday, March 02, 2004

Turnbull a force for change

Not often can members of either the Liberal Party or the Labor Party claim with a reasonable degree of certainty that they have preselected not only a future cabinet minister, but also a possible prime minister.

Whether on Saturday the 158 Liberal members in the federal seat of Wentworth had in mind the occasion of the preselection of Menzies in 1934, Whitlam in 1952 or Hawke in 1979 is uncertain.

But what is certain is that Malcolm Turnbull's entry into federal politics at the next election will be just as momentous as was that of those three.  Overnight, Turnbull's victory has changed the dynamics of the Howard succession and the Liberal party room.

The fact that, according to any measure of ability, Turnbull when he becomes an MP should immediately be given a senior frontbench position is the first reason for the significance of his preselection.

The plans for the advancement of dozens of junior ministers and backbenchers have been thrown into disarray, and there is the suspicion of self-interest from those MPs who have expressed disapproval at his vigorous approach to the challenge of a sitting Liberal member.

Turnbull's preselection is also significant because of its longer-term consequences for the Liberal Party and for national politics generally.

If the Liberals win the next federal election he will help shape the government's fourth-term agenda.  If they lose, which is unlikely, but not impossible, his energy and intellect will be required to rebuild the party.

As chairman of the Liberal Party's think tank, the Menzies Research Centre, Turnbull has championed more than just the republic:  reforms to school education, refashioning welfare to families and the redesign of the tax system are all issues on which he has made important contributions.  He puts his position forcefully and passionately, and even his opponents have conceded that regardless of whether they agree or disagree with him, they always know where he stands.

In certain aspects Turnbull has much in common with his two fellow New South Welshmen, both of whom at various times he has been opposed to -- Tony Abbott and Mark Latham.

They each would be loath to admit it but the style of politics they all practise is remarkably similar.  Each is keen to experiment with new ideas, and in contrast to the risk-averse attitudes of many other politicians, they will dare making a mistake -- and if they're wrong, they'll admit it.

They are also different from their peers in that they are not afraid to display and discuss their personal and political philosophies and indeed they take every opportunity to do so.

Despite their political differences, they are relatively socially conservative, and each emphasises the strengthening of individual and family responsibility as a key objective of government policy, particularly in helping to overcome social disadvantage.

Whether Turnbull, Abbott or Latham ever becomes prime minister, time will tell.

But regardless of whether they do or not, each has already helped change Australian politics.


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