Will Climate Warming Really Turn Off the Tap?

I agree that carbon dioxide levels are currently increasing and this could bring a warmer climate.

But I differ from Professor Tim Flannery and others (see The Land letters, August 12, pp 10, 11) about whether current trends will really bring doom and what we can do about it.

Over the past few decades there have been many studies of the effect of increasing carbon dioxide levels on plant growth and it is all good news for farmers.

CSIRO has stated that:  "The direct effects of increased carbon dioxide in the atmosphere will probably have a substantial positive impact on Australian agriculture and forestry".  For example, doubling of carbon dioxide levels over the next 100 years could increase growth rates in wheat and barley by 30 to 40 per cent (CSIRO Media Release, 97/122).

Professor Flannery and the doomsayers would argue "but we won't have the water to grow the crops".

Indeed, the recently signed and much trumpeted National Water Initiative infers it is going to get drier and "water access entitlement holders are to bear the risks of any reduction or less reliable water allocation arising from reductions to the consumptive pool as a result of seasonal or long-term changes in climate".

Yet about 100 Australian climatologists recently predicted that it will generally getter wetter as it gets warmer (Australasian Science, June 2004).

The bottom-line appears to be that there is no coherent picture of regional climate change and this is especially the case when predicting rainfall.

So what should we do?

The new age environmental fundamentalists believe that the road to salvation -- more usually referred to as sustainability -- is paved with feeling guilty, using wind power and taking water off irrigators and giving it back to the environment.

These mystical medications are unlikely to cure potential real world dilemmas.

I am optimistic that technology will eventually solve our fossil fuel dependence and in this way address the issue of carbon dioxide emissions.

But there is still the possibility -- the worst case scenario -- that rainfall will be reduced across southern Australia.

The National Farmers Federation recently suggested the solution lay in initiating research into new crop varieties that can handle reduced rainfall and a hotter climate.

Biotechnology offers the potential for more drought tolerant GM crops.  There are currently research program focused on drought tolerance.

But State Governments have banned the commercialisation of new GM food crops following intense lobbying from environmentalists.

Last year the Wentworth Group of Concerned Scientists, of which Professor Flannery is a member, were asking all irrigators to voluntarily give up 10 per cent of their water allocation without compensation.

I wonder what the Wentworth Group's position is on supporting an increase in water use efficiency of say 10 per cent through the development and commercialisation of new GM crop varieties?

I suggest we confront the future, including climate change, with our eyes open to all the possibilities, a positive mind set, and a capacity to innovate.

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