Despite calls for consensus politics, for the next three years Australians should expect a Liberal-led opposition to behave like an animal that's tasted blood and is hunting down its limping prey.
Textbook politics says that after a second election loss, oppositions descend into factional infighting, regular bouts of leadership speculation and backstabbing between individual MPs. But none of that is likely to occur.
As former Senate leader Nick Minchin said on Monday's Q&A, ''Tony Abbott is a Liberal hero''. Unless he finds a way to fall on his own sword, Abbott's position is secure. Instead, the party leadership will lick its flesh wounds and focus all its energies on tearing down the government that is only one MP short of collapse.
While the chalice handed to Labor may appear poisoned, the reality is that politics is a zero-sum game and both sides would rather drink from it than from nothing at all. Government brings jobs, salary increases, legislative power, media attention and the resources to prosecute your case, all of which will be invaluable for Labor as it seeks to turn its minority status into a majority.
But because Labor has only secured victory through the support of a rainbow coalition of the Greens and independents, its legitimacy will always be tested.
In announcing his decision, even Rob Oakeshott supported the introduction of a parliamentary swear jar for every time the word ''mandate'' is uttered on Capital Hill. Faced with this scenario, Abbott and the opposition's modus operandi won't be for the consensus politics Oakeshott has been calling for.
Instead, the opposition will seek to chip away at Labor's weakest links in the hope of forcing resignations to destroy the government's numbers and make the independents choose between a minority Liberal government or another election.
Since the independents will almost certainly lose their box seat after the next election, they're far more likely to switch governments. It's for these reasons alone that the opposition is likely to stick to the agreement for parliamentary reform.
Despite their posturing, both the Liberal and Labor parties have been dragged to a reform agreement to secure support. The opposition will be keenly aware that it may need the independents' support any day.
And the policy terrain will provide Abbott with opportunities. In three years, the national broadband network will be sufficiently rolled out that it cannot be rolled back. But it will also deliver cost blowouts and broken promises on data speeds.
The support of independent MPs, the Greens and Labor for a carbon price will provide Abbott with fertile ground to link cost-of-living increases back to the government. The mining tax will almost certainly fail and make it impossible for the government to pay off Australia's debt levels within the advertised time frame. And the prospect of a double-dip recession may cause the government to go further into debt and strengthen Abbott's argument that Labor cannot manage the economy.
Labor's prop to get over the line, the Greens, will also be more heavily scrutinised.
Once the Greens secure the balance of power in the Senate in July, their agenda for higher taxes and greater intrusion by government in the lives of ordinary Australians won't win votes.
By signing a pseudo-coalition agreement with Labor, the Greens have already compromised themselves: instead of being a purist party they are just one in pursuit of power.
The challenge for Abbott over the next three years will be to maintain the discipline he demonstrated throughout the campaign. He has been on a journey of political reinvention since the end of the Howard government.
Despite his success, his accession to the leadership was caused by a political and policy crisis over climate change, not his prospects as a leader.
He will be elected unopposed as leader in a few days' time and has succeeded in transforming himself from a candidate who only had a handful of votes in the first Liberal leadership ballot after the 2007 election to a Liberal messiah.
With discipline, he has pried open Labor's weaknesses and kept attention on its failings to the point that Labor limped over the finish line with help. That took Abbott less than a year. He has now tasted blood. Over the next three years don't expect him to let his prey go.
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